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Z3513 LC Boxed Beef Cutout YoY Signal

USDA AMS boxed-beef cutout year-over-year, z-scored on two years — the absolute-cutout demand-cycle overlay on CME Live Cattle.

At a glance

As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.

OBJECTIVE

USDA AMS publishes the daily boxed-beef cutout — the wholesale price for beef sold in cardboard boxes to retail and foodservice distributors. The cutout is the reference price for US wholesale beef, aggregating quality grades and primal cuts into a single representative number. The year-over-year change in cutout captures the demand-cycle position relative to the prior year. High Cutout YoY (positive composite) means boxed-beef is trading materially above year-ago wholesale levels. This typically coincides with peak-cycle pricing where the demand has already pulled values high. Historically modestly BEARISH LC forward via mean-reversion dynamics — the demand pull has already transmitted through to cash cattle, and the forward pricing has upside limits. Low Cutout YoY (negative composite) means boxed-beef is trading below year-ago. This typically coincides with cycle troughs where demand has retreated. Historically modestly BULLISH LC forward via mean-reversion recovery dynamics — the cycle is positioned for demand recovery and cash improvement. This signal reads the daily USDA AMS boxed-beef cutout YoY, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily USDA release. The memorable finding: Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is -0.048 at p=4.7e-06 — weakly significant. Non-overlap independence test at p=0.36 is not significant. Phase +1 (High Cutout) delivers +0.22% fwd60d (-0.80 pp edge below baseline, hit 57%). Phase -1 (Low Cutout) delivers +1.44% fwd60d (+0.42 pp edge above baseline, hit 62%). Grade C+ demand-cycle overlay with weak but directional phase stats. Current reading: Low Cutout YoY EXTREME NEG firing at composite -0.695. Wholesale boxed-beef cutout is materially below the 2-year baseline — demand-cycle trough territory. Historical Phase -1 delivers modestly above baseline. Read on for the current reading, the anchor cases, and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.

LIVE CHART

STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE

THE TAKEAWAY

THE REGIME MAP

Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean. Weakly directional mean-reverting demand-cycle overlay.

The historical pattern

THE TRACK RECORD

Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.

The signal pulls USDA AMS boxed-beef cutout daily wholesale price (LM_XB403 series), computes the year-over-year percent change, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme).

Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.

Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 10:54 AM ET