GC · Metals / Geopolitical Tone
Z10519 – GC Gold GDELT China Military Tone
GDELT China-military theme tone shifts during geopolitical stress; the tone z-score maps stress to gold safe-haven regimes.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.876
GDELT China-Military theme tone z-score, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
4 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals tone stress; negative equals tone calm
Sample
11 years
GDELT since March 2015, roughly 2,928 trading days
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Geopolitical stress around China military activity has lifted gold safe-haven flows during multiple episodes in the past decade. The 2015 South-China-Sea artificial-island construction window, the 2022-2023 Taiwan-Strait tension series, and the 2024-2025 PLA modernization reporting all coincided with GDELT tone shifts on the China-Military theme. This signal reads daily GDELT tone, z-scores on a rolling window, and inverts so stress reads positive. On June 8 2015 the composite reached series maximum plus 0.9951 during the artificial-island construction window. On February 28 2017 the composite reached series minimum minus 0.9951. Today the composite reads -0.876, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
The 504-day z-score of a multi-input composite of US credit-quality indicators including BAA-AAA corporate spreads, 9016 trading days of history for GC.
The dark line is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. Pale red marks tone-stress; pale green marks tone-calm. Bronze line is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman IC. Lower panel is COMEX GC continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis.
COMPOSITE
+0.804 / tanh
STATE
Extreme Pos
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+5.24% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND READING
Moderate NEG, 4 days running. Composite at -0.876 is in the range.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The underlying input is at its current level relative to the 504-day baseline. The composite reflects this with the sign-convention stated in section 2.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal's historical edge is concentrated at the tanh-saturation extremes (composite below minus 0.5 or above plus 0.5). The cross-sample Pearson IC of +0.03 on SPY forward-sixty-day is a reference-asset read; the appropriate direct read is GC forward returns, which are not computed as a baseline in this page.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.876 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band. GDELT China-Military theme updates daily; watch for tone shifts during PLA activity windows.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- GDELT China-Military daily tone Primary input; daily global media tone on the theme.
- Rolling z-score Standardizes tone against trailing baseline.
- Market phase direction Direction of the current state run.
THE REGIME MAP
The six regime states
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tone stress | +1 | 35.0% (1026 d) | +1.81% | +0.03pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 27.0% (790 d) | +1.90% | +0.13pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Tone calm TODAY | -1 | 38.0% (1112 d) | +1.66% | -0.12pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
8 state transitions from 01/02/2025 to 11/04/2026. Full history (99 total transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d GC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -4.32% |
| Defensive | 02/03/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 19d | -7.23% |
| Neutral | 03/03/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 105d | +0.68% |
| Defensive | 08/01/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 21d | +10.22% |
| Neutral | 09/02/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 44d | +5.43% |
| Expansion | 11/03/2025 | 11/28/2025 | 19d | +1.26% |
| Neutral | 12/01/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 22d | +0.84% |
| Defensive LIVE | 01/02/2026 | current | 212d | -4.81% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day GC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
GDELT catalogs global media tone across thematic series. The China-Military theme covers PLA activity, South-China-Sea developments, Taiwan-Strait reporting, and related military-themed China news. The signal reads daily tone, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh with polarity set so elevated tension reads positive composite.
Why it matters
Media tone on China-military activity leads institutional geopolitical-risk assessment. During tension windows institutional capital reallocates toward safe-haven assets including gold.
Tone-stress state has historically carried modest edge on gold forward returns. Pair with credit-stress and sovereign-stress for multi-channel safe-haven view.
Spearman IC near zero on daily basis. Use as regime filter rather than standalone directional trigger.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 11:12 PM ET