GC · Metals / Geopolitical Tone
Z10472 – GC Gold GDELT Democracy Tone Basket
Media tone across democracy and election-fraud themes deteriorates during governance stress; the GDELT basket z-score maps tone deterioration to gold safe-haven regimes on a 60-day forward horizon.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.547
GDELT democracy basket tone z-score, inverted, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
4 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals tone stress; negative equals tone calm
Sample
11 years
GDELT since May 2015, roughly 2,886 trading days
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Global news tone shifts systematically before gold responds. The GDELT project catalogs daily media tone across thousands of geopolitical themes. This signal reads three themes relevant to governance stress: Democracy, Election Fraud, and Discrimination. Tone is aggregated into a weighted basket, z-scored on a rolling window, and inverted so deteriorating tone reads positive. The signal has 11 years of coverage since GDELT reliable data onset in May 2015. On March 18 2019 the composite reached its series maximum plus 1.0000 during the first-impeachment-inquiry runup. On November 10 2016 the composite reached its series minimum minus 0.9992 during the post-election tone normalization. Today the composite reads -0.547, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
The 504-day z-score of a multi-input composite of US credit-quality indicators including BAA-AAA corporate spreads, 9016 trading days of history for GC.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite, bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks tone-stress regime; the pale green band marks tone-calm. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman IC against gold forward 60-day returns. The lower panel is COMEX GC continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.804 / tanh
STATE
Extreme Pos
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+5.24% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND READING
Moderate NEG, 4 days running. Composite at -0.547 is in the range.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The underlying input is at its current level relative to the 504-day baseline. The composite reflects this with the sign-convention stated in section 2.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal's historical edge is concentrated at the tanh-saturation extremes (composite below minus 0.5 or above plus 0.5). The cross-sample Pearson IC of +0.03 on SPY forward-sixty-day is a reference-asset read; the appropriate direct read is GC forward returns, which are not computed as a baseline in this page.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.547 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band. GDELT updates daily at 15-minute cadence; watch for persistent tone shifts across the three themes as leading indicators.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Democracy theme tone GDELT global tone on democracy-related news.
- Election Fraud theme tone GDELT global tone on election-fraud-related news.
- Discrimination theme tone GDELT global tone on discrimination-related news.
THE REGIME MAP
The six regime states
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tone stress | +1 | 34.7% (1000 d) | +2.04% | +0.19pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 28.5% (822 d) | +1.89% | +0.04pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Tone calm TODAY | -1 | 36.9% (1064 d) | +1.64% | -0.21pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
8 state transitions from 01/02/2025 to 11/04/2026. Full history (99 total transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d GC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -4.32% |
| Defensive | 02/03/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 19d | -7.23% |
| Neutral | 03/03/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 105d | +0.68% |
| Defensive | 08/01/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 21d | +10.22% |
| Neutral | 09/02/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 44d | +5.43% |
| Expansion | 11/03/2025 | 11/28/2025 | 19d | +1.26% |
| Neutral | 12/01/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 22d | +0.84% |
| Defensive LIVE | 01/02/2026 | current | 212d | -4.81% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day GC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) catalogs global media tone across thematic baskets. The engine aggregates daily tone across three themes (Democracy, Election Fraud, Discrimination) into a weighted basket, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh. Deteriorating tone fires positive composite. The signal captures governance-stress regimes where safe-haven flows have historically lifted gold.
Why it matters
Media tone around democracy and election integrity shifts systematically in advance of institutional reassessment. When tone deteriorates sharply, institutional capital reconsiders safe-haven allocations. Gold is the deepest safe haven and benefits from these flows.
Tone-stress state has delivered modest edge on gold forward 60-day returns. Pair with credit-stress and sovereign-stress signals for multi-channel safe-haven view.
Spearman IC +0.03 is near zero on daily basis. The signal provides 40-basis-point state-conditional edge, useful as a filter but weak as a standalone directional signal.
GO DEEPER
What the Gold Credit-Quality Composite signal actually tells you (and when it does not)
The brief covers the GDELT basket composition, three signature episodes (2019-03 impeachment runup series max, 2016-11 series min, 2024-25 stable regime), and four caveats on reading a media-tone signal as a gold direction lens.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 11:08 PM ET