· Analytic
Z6633 FC Corn-Feeder Extreme Signal
Corn-to-feeder-cattle price ratio extreme-regime detector z-scored on two years as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.000
Normal, DORMANT (no extreme firing)
Signal state
Normal
phase 0, corn/FC ratio within 1.5-sigma band
Sample
Daily CME-CBOT, 35-year span
Corn/FC ratio 2y z-score, 1991+
Daily IC
+0.096 (p < 1e-18)
Spearman vs FC fwd60d, n = 8,837
Non-overlap IC
+0.175 (p = 0.033)
Every-60d sample, n = 148, independently significant
Baseline FC fwd60d
+1.24%
Unconditional mean
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The ratio between CBOT corn and CME Feeder Cattle measures feed-cost pressure on feedlot operations. When the ratio spikes to extreme highs on a 2-year rolling window, corn feed costs have moved rapidly relative to feeder cattle prices — the single largest cost on a feedlot operator produces a margin shock. Historically this extreme-ratio regime triggers feedlot placement cuts that tighten forward feeder supply, producing bullish FC fwd60d. This signal reads corn in cents per bushel from the traded unadjusted series (not back-adjusted), divided by CME Feeder Cattle first-nearby close in cents per pound. The ratio is z-scored on a 504-day rolling window, and only readings with absolute z-score at or above 1.5 contribute to the composite — the signal is DORMANT 83 percent of the time and fires only when corn-feeder pricing has moved to a statistically extreme position. The memorable finding: Grade B+ directional with independent-sample confirmation. Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.096 at p-value below 1e-18 across 8,837 observations. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is plus 0.175 at p-value 0.033 across 148 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (Extreme High corn/FC) delivers +3.73 percent fwd60d (+2.49 pp above baseline, hit 65 percent). Phase -1 (Extreme Low corn/FC) delivers +1.15 percent (near baseline). The signal is asymmetric with a strong Phase +1 tail. Current reading: Normal at composite 0.000, 176 trading days running. The corn/FC ratio has not hit a 1.5-sigma extreme in over 8 months. The signal is DORMANT. Watch for extreme ratio firings as a tactical placement-cut trigger.
LIVE CHART
FC Corn-Feeder Extreme Signal
Composite reads 0.000 as of October 30, 2026, in the Normal band. The corn/FC ratio has not hit a 1.5-sigma extreme in 176 trading days. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.000 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
DAILY IC
+0.096 (p < 1e-18)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.033
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal firing at composite 0.000, 176 trading days since last extreme. Phase +1 (Extreme High corn/FC) historically delivers +3.73 percent fwd60d / 65 percent hit / +2.49 pp above baseline. Daily IC +0.096 at p-value below 1e-18. Independence test at p-value 0.033 across 148 non-overlapping samples.
THE CORN-FEEDER MECHANISM
Corn is the primary feedlot input (70 percent of operating cost). When the corn/FC ratio spikes 1.5-sigma above the 2-year baseline, feedlot margins compress and operators cut placements. The placement-cut effect tightens forward feeder supply over the next 60 days = bullish FC.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as high-conviction tactical read when Phase +1 fires. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC Cattle Crush Margin signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. In the current Normal dormant band, no directional lean.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at 0.000 in the Normal band. The blue signal line is at the neutral centerline as the corn/FC ratio is within the 1.5-sigma band. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite 0.000 State Normal, 176 days since last extreme firing.
- Corn/FC ratio within 1.5-sigma band CBOT corn divided by CME feeder cattle is within the 1.5-sigma zone of the 2-year rolling baseline. No extreme feed-cost shock active.
- Non-overlap IC confirms directional edge Daily IC plus 0.096 at p-value below 1e-18. Independence test at p-value 0.033 across 148 non-overlapping samples. Grade B+ directional.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CORN-FEEDER CALL
Composite 0.000, Normal. The corn/FC ratio has not hit a 1.5-sigma extreme in 176 trading days. Signal is DORMANT — waiting for an extreme-ratio firing.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Extreme High corn/FC) historical fwd60d FC mean plus 3.73 percent (plus 2.49 pp above baseline, hit 65 percent). Strong bullish lean when firing. The signal fires only 17 percent of trading days.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC plus 0.096 at p-value below 1e-18 strongly significant. Independence test at p-value 0.033 across 148 non-overlapping samples. Grade B+ directional. Asymmetric — Phase +1 is the strong tail; Phase -1 is near-neutral.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,837 trading days with observable FC fwd60d. Baseline FC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.24 percent mean. Grade B+ directional with independent-sample confirmation. Asymmetric — Phase +1 is the strong bullish tail; Phase -1 is near-neutral.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme High Corn/FC | +1 | 16.5% (1493 d) | +4.31% | +3.10pp | Feb 2022, Dec 2020, Dec 2020 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 73.0% (6606 d) | +2.24% | +1.03pp | Feb 2026, Jan 2026, Jan 2026 | |
| Extreme Low Corn/FC | -1 | 10.5% (950 d) | +1.08% | -0.13pp | Jan 2026, Jan 2026, Jan 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 35-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/30/2024 | 05/12/2025 | 133d | +3.76% |
| Extreme Low Corn/FC | 05/13/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 1d | +8.58% |
| Normal | 05/14/2025 | 05/28/2025 | 10d | +8.23% |
| Extreme Low Corn/FC | 05/29/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 107d | +8.88% |
| Normal | 10/30/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 43d | +2.29% |
| Extreme Low Corn/FC | 01/02/2026 | 01/02/2026 | 1d | -4.81% |
| Normal | 01/05/2026 | 01/05/2026 | 1d | -4.72% |
| Extreme Low Corn/FC | 01/06/2026 | 01/06/2026 | 1d | -5.20% |
| Normal | 01/07/2026 | 01/09/2026 | 3d | -4.44% |
| Extreme Low Corn/FC | 01/12/2026 | 02/19/2026 | 27d | -2.19% |
| Normal | 02/20/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 176d | +7.14% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal computes the ratio of CBOT corn traded unadjusted price (cents per bushel) to CME Feeder Cattle first-nearby close (cents per pound), z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 126-day minimum sample, applies an absolute threshold of 1.5-sigma, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily release cadence.
Why it matters
Why extreme corn/FC ratios trigger placement cuts
Corn is the primary feedlot input, representing approximately 70 percent of operating cost. Feeder cattle is the primary animal input at approximately 25 percent. When the corn-to-feeder ratio spikes 1.5-sigma above its 2-year rolling baseline, feedlot margins compress sharply. Operators respond by cutting new placements, which tightens forward feeder supply over the following 60 to 90 days.
Why Grade B+ with independent-sample confirmation
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.096 at p-value below 1e-18 across 8,837 observations — strongly significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.033 across 148 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. The signal fires only 17 percent of trading days (Phase +1); when it fires, the directional edge is strong at +2.49 pp above baseline.
How to use this signal today
In the current Normal dormant band, no directional lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal (strongest-IC structural anchor), the FC Light Placement Pace signal (feedlot flow), the FC Cattle Crush Margin signal (full three-leg margin), and the LC-corn ratio signal. The Corn-Feeder Extreme signal complements the Cattle Crush Margin signal by isolating the extreme-regime feed-cost tail.
Related signals
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 05:24 PM ET