CORN SPECIALIST · Grains / Crop-Insurance Ground Truth
Z4448 – [C] Corn RMA Excess-Moisture Indemnity YoY
Excess moisture during US corn planting forces replants and prevent-planted acres; prior-year wet-weather indemnity captures that supply disruption.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JAN
Current reading
-0.709
On the plus-or-minus one scale
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JAN
The RMA Cause-of-Loss indemnity for the prior growing season has settled
Signal state
Moderate NEG
210 consecutive days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 02, 2026
Annual rebase on January 1
Sample
16 reinsurance years
2010 onward; annual Cause-of-Loss cadence
Active window
Jan (annual rebase)
Dormant Feb-Nov; next window January 2027
As of Nov 02, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW JANUARY 2027
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The US federal crop insurance program pays indemnities to corn farmers whose crop was damaged by wet-weather events — Mississippi river flooding, record-late planting from a wet-cold spring, derecho and tropical storm damage during pollination, flash flooding across the Corn Belt. The USDA Risk Management Agency’s Cause-of-Loss file is the dollar-level ground truth of how severely the prior growing season punished US corn production. Each January, as the prior-year indemnity settles, this signal reads the year-over-year change against a rolling two-year reference and rebases for the current planting cycle. Our data over 16 reinsurance years shows the signal is a modest-magnitude lagged indicator — the honest frame is as a prior-year supply-damage context layer that confirms or softens real-time weather, condition, and positioning signals, not a standalone directional forecaster. Full IC + phase stats below.
LIVE CHART
Sixteen years of US corn excess-moisture insurance indemnity year-over-year change against the CBOT corn benchmark.
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the US corn excess-moisture indemnity year-over-year z-score on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale on the left axis — positive means wet-loss claims came in above the two-year rolling baseline, negative means claims came in below. The bronze line in the middle panel is the CBOT corn front-month in cents per bushel. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling information coefficient between the composite and corn 60-day forward returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.2 moderate and plus-or-minus 0.5 extreme thresholds. Green band fills mark wet-loss-claims-above-baseline extremes (historically bullish for corn via supply disruption); red band fills mark wet-loss-claims-below-baseline extremes (historically bearish for corn via benign-weather production).
COMPOSITE
-0.73 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-1
FWD 63d
-1.17% (baseline unchanged)
SAMPLE N
5,998 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HORIZON
Moderate NEG, 210 consecutive days. Composite at -0.73 is in the wet-loss-below-baseline band. Daily 63-day forward information coefficient across 5,998 live days is -0.14; the signal reads better as a composite overlay than a standalone forecaster.
FUNDAMENTAL MECHANISM
Wet planting and in-season flooding reduce US corn planted acres via prevent-plant decisions and lower per-acre yield via waterlogged root damage. The RMA Cause-of-Loss file is the federal insurance system’s ground-truth settlement of that damage. High year-over-year readings encode a prior growing season that forced significant insurance payouts for excess-moisture damage; low readings encode a benign prior season.
WHERE THE SIGNAL BREAKS
The signal is retrospective. Insurance claims are reported after the growing season concludes, so the price impact of the wet-planting disruption has typically already been absorbed by the time the signal posts. The two-year reference window plus annual anchor also produce regime shifts around January 1 that reflect the prior year’s claim settlement rather than a live mechanism.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.709 in the Wet-Loss Claims Below Baseline band after the January 2 2026 annual rebase. The signal has been in moderate-neg for 210 trading days as the 2025 reinsurance year posted below-two-year-average excess-moisture indemnity totals. CBOT front-month corn sits at $4.48/bu, down from the summer peak as the benign 2025 weather read allows 2026 production to pressure prices.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.73 Moderate NEG band, 210 trading days running since 2026-01-02 annual rebase.
- 2025 reinsurance year total Below two-year rolling average on excess-moisture-precipitation-rain indemnity for the Corn commodity across all US states.
- Non-overlap 252d IC: -0.31 at N=24 Natural annual horizon correlation is negative at non-overlap. Signal best deployed as composite overlay.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT WET-LOSS CLAIMS ARE TELLING YOU
The RMA Cause-of-Loss indemnity for US corn under the excess-moisture category posted below the two-year rolling average for the 2025 reinsurance year, driving the signal into the Moderate NEG band on January 2 2026. The reading has held through the full 2026 growing season to date. Under the engine’s stated polarity, that reads as bearish for corn carry: the 2025 crop was not meaningfully disrupted by wet planting or in-season flooding, so there is no supply-side tailwind on carry coming from the prior-year weather tape.
THE WET-DISRUPTION ECONOMIC MECHANISM
A wet planting season raises prevent-plant acres and extends planting dates past the agronomic optimum, both of which reduce per-acre yield. An in-season wet period, especially during the June-July pollination window or the September-October harvest window, damages standing corn via waterlogging, derecho wind, and fungal disease. The RMA pays indemnities on the realized damage, and the aggregate payout is the settlement of that year’s wet-weather supply impact.
THE EMPIRICAL CAVEAT
Across 16 reinsurance years the signal’s 63-day forward daily information coefficient is -0.14. Year-start positive fires precede positive 252-day corn only 2 of 7 times; year-start negative fires precede negative 252-day corn 5 of 9 times. The signal is best used as a composite overlay on real-time weather and condition indicators, not as a standalone directional read on CBOT corn.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns, and sample share
Behavior across the Moderate NEG / Baseline / Moderate POS trinary (CBOT corn benchmark, 2003-01-03 through present). The signal rebases annually on January 1 after prior-year RMA claim settlement; forward returns are measured from the start of each state run at the 63-day horizon so the stats match the chart’s forward window.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wet-Loss Claims Below Baseline TODAY | -1 | 33.1% (2992 d) | +2.97% | +2.68pp | Jan 2026, Jan 2024, Jan 2021 | |
| Wet-Loss Claims At Baseline | 0 | 43.9% (3972 d) | -0.83% | -1.12pp | Jan 2023, Jan 2018, Jan 2011 | |
| Wet-Loss Claims Above Baseline | +1 | 23.0% (2081 d) | -1.35% | -1.64pp | Jan 2025, Sep 2023, Jun 2018 |
Sixteen years of RMA excess-moisture indemnity dynamics, three scenes
The signal across sixteen years of US corn wet-loss history
THE TRACK RECORD
The last eight state transitions
Eight transitions from 02/14/2018 to 10/30/2026 across the RMA annual rebase cycle.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d Corn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wet-Loss Claims Above Baseline | 02/14/2018 | 01/02/2019 | 322d | +4.00% |
| Wet-Loss Claims Below Baseline | 01/03/2019 | 06/03/2019 | 151d | -6.14% |
| Wet-Loss Claims Above Baseline | 01/03/2020 | 01/04/2021 | 367d | -17.60% |
| Wet-Loss Claims Below Baseline | 01/05/2021 | 01/03/2023 | 728d | +17.16% |
| Wet-Loss Claims Below Baseline | 01/03/2023 | 06/10/2024 | 524d | -1.95% |
| Wet-Loss Claims Above Baseline | 06/11/2024 | 08/12/2024 | 62d | -11.58% |
| Wet-Loss Claims Above Baseline | 01/03/2025 | 01/01/2026 | 364d | -0.57% |
| Wet-Loss Claims Below Baseline | 01/02/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 209d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day Corn is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Excess moisture during the US corn planting window delays field work, forces replants, and drives prevent-planted acres — tightening the new-crop balance sheet. Prior-year federal crop-insurance indemnity for wet-weather losses captures that supply disruption and informs the next planting cycle.
Why it matters
THE SIGNAL IS A LAGGED GROUND-TRUTH READ, NOT A LEADING FORECAST
Insurance claims are reported after the growing season concludes, so the price impact of the wet-planting disruption has typically already been absorbed by the time the signal posts in January. The series is a lagged ground-truth read on what the prior season actually produced in terms of corn supply damage, and its primary value is as a composite overlay that can confirm or soften a real-time weather, condition, or positioning signal that is firing on the current growing season.
WHY THE EMPIRICAL IC IS MODESTLY NEGATIVE AT SHORT HORIZONS
The signal’s natural horizon is annual-plus (12 to 24 months), reflecting the lag between wet-weather damage and insurance reporting. At the 63-day horizon the IC is dominated by the January 1 annual rebase: the signal posts in a direction that reflects the prior year’s weather, while the current year’s weather is driving the next 63 days of CBOT corn. The modest negative sign is a mechanical consequence of using a lagged indicator against a short-horizon forward return, not evidence that the underlying mechanism is wrong.
WHERE THE SIGNAL EARNS ITS PLACE IN A COMPOSITE
Across the 16 reinsurance years the signal’s year-start readings produce directional disagreements that are informative when combined with other lenses. A real-time weather signal firing bullish while this signal year-start-negative implies the current crop looks troubled but the prior crop was not; weight the current-season read. A real-time weather signal firing neutral while this signal year-start-positive implies the carry is elevated from prior-season disruption without current-season confirmation; softens a long-only tilt. The signal is a lens, not a lamp.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and refer to the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 03, 2026 03:58 PM ET