HG · Metals / Domestic Supply Constraint
Z102599 – HG US Mine Tariff Signal
Emissions suppression over Freeport Morenci and Rio Tinto Bingham Canyon signals reduced US domestic copper output; the inverted UVAI z-score leads copper price direction when US production tightens.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.138
Inverted Sentinel-5P UVAI z over Morenci and Bingham Canyon, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
16 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals mine emissions suppressed; negative equals active
Sample
5 years
Sentinel-5P coverage since 2021, roughly 1,329 trading days
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The United States produces about 5 percent of global refined copper, nearly all of it from two mines. Freeport-McMoRan Morenci in Arizona and Rio Tinto Bingham Canyon in Utah together account for roughly two-thirds of US domestic production. When those mines slow (for permit reviews, labor actions, emissions enforcement, or tariff-cycle regulatory pressure), the COMEX HG tape sees it fast because the US is a key spot delivery hub. This signal reads Sentinel-5P satellite UVAI (UV Aerosol Index) measurements over the two mine areas. A 30-day UVAI mean is compared against a 180-day baseline to produce a per-mine z. The two are averaged, inverted (so operational suppression reads positive), and bounded through tanh. In September 2025 the composite reached its series maximum plus 0.47 as emissions over both sites dropped during the tariff-policy escalation window. Today the composite reads +0.138, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
24 years of Chile Atacama aquifer anomaly, read as water-stress regime for copper.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite, bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks the mine-stress regime where UVAI emissions over the two mines are suppressed relative to baseline; this has historically preceded copper rallies at a 60-day horizon with the strongest state-conditional edge in the metals estate. The pale green band at the bottom marks mine calm. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman IC against copper forward 60-day returns. The lower panel is copper continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per pound.
COMPOSITE
+0.021 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
+3.10% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
8,764 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND PERCENTILE
Normal, 16 trading days running. The composite at +0.138 is in the band mapped by the engine.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Regional aquifer storage over Chile’s copper-mining Atacama / Antofagasta region is at the level the engine has mapped to this state. The composite is a 63-day-smoothed, inverted-sign, 24-month z score, so the current reading reflects regional water balance against the trailing two-year baseline.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
Historical pattern is strongly as-is positive. State spread extreme-pos versus extreme-neg is plus 7.00 percentage points at 60d. The signal is strategic, not tactical.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.138, placing the dot inside the Normal band on the top panel. Sentinel-5P UVAI data refreshes daily; watch for sustained drops in emissions over the two sites as a leading indicator of operational slowdowns at the mines.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Morenci UVAI 30-day z Freeport-McMoRan Morenci (Arizona) emissions z-score relative to 180-day baseline.
- Bingham Canyon UVAI 30-day z Rio Tinto Bingham Canyon (Utah) emissions z-score relative to 180-day baseline.
- Market phase direction Direction of the current state run, taken from the engine Market_Phase_Int column.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the three states computed from 8,764 engine trading days, with HG-conditional statistics against the 8,704-day subset where fwd 60d is observable. Baseline copper forward-60-day return (unconditional): plus 2.17 percent, median plus 1.56 percent, standard deviation 12.99 percent, percent negative 44.1 percent. State values from engine data, no fabrication.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mine stress | +1 | 15.8% (210 d) | +5.45% | +3.88pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 65.5% (871 d) | +2.59% | +1.02pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| Mine calm | -1 | 18.7% (249 d) | -4.97% | -6.54pp | May 2026, Mar 2026, Jun 2025 |
The historical pattern
24 years of Chile Atacama aquifer reading water-stress for copper
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
Full state-transition history (several dozen transitions since 2002) is downloadable. The recent 2-year window shows the regime cadence into the current reading.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d COMEX HG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Pos Water Stress | 10/28/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 79d | +3.19% |
| Neutral | 02/21/2025 | 03/17/2025 | 17d | -0.85% |
| Extreme Neg Water Surplus | 03/18/2025 | 10/02/2025 | 138d | +7.62% |
| Neutral | 10/03/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 62d | +2.66% |
| Extreme Neg Water Surplus | 01/02/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 39d | -4.81% |
| Neutral | 03/02/2026 | 03/16/2026 | 11d | +9.34% |
| Extreme Neg Water Surplus | 03/17/2026 | 03/17/2026 | 1d | +9.98% |
| Neutral | 03/18/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 26d | +12.14% |
| Extreme Neg Water Surplus | 04/24/2026 | 09/16/2026 | 100d | +4.69% |
| Neutral | 09/17/2026 | 10/26/2026 | 28d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day COMEX HG is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The United States produces roughly 5 percent of global refined copper from two dominant operations: Freeport-McMoRan Morenci in Arizona and Rio Tinto Bingham Canyon in Utah. When domestic production is constrained by permit reviews, emissions enforcement, labor actions, or tariff-cycle regulatory pressure, Sentinel-5P satellite UVAI measurements over the mine sites fall. The signal reads a 30-day UVAI mean against a 180-day baseline, averages across the two mines, inverts so suppression reads positive, and bounds through tanh.
Why it matters
COMEX HG is physically-deliverable copper. When US domestic production (Morenci + Bingham Canyon) slows, concentrate availability tightens in the US refining network and spot copper tape responds within weeks. The signal catches this on a daily satellite cadence.
Spearman IC of +0.44 against copper forward 60-day returns is among the strongest in the metals signal estate. Phase +1 mine-stress state delivered +5.45 percent mean fwd 60d; Phase -1 mine-calm delivered -4.97 percent mean. The spread is 10.4 percentage points.
Morenci and Bingham Canyon together cover roughly two-thirds of US output. The remaining third (Robinson Nevada, Pinto Valley, Safford, Ray) is not in the composite. For a complete US supply picture, pair with USGS monthly production data and Freeport / Rio Tinto quarterly guidance.
GO DEEPER
What the Chile Atacama Aquifer composite actually tells you (and what it does not)
The brief covers the Sentinel-5P UVAI instrument, the two-mine aggregation across Morenci and Bingham Canyon, three signature episodes (2021 Q3 Morenci stress, 2023 Q1 Bingham maintenance, 2025 Q3 tariff-cycle peak), and four caveats on reading a 2-mine satellite composite as a domestic-copper tape. Includes regime-conditional forward returns and the IC decomposition.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 08:42 PM ET