· Analytic
Z3517 LC BLS Ground Beef Retail Signal
BLS CPI retail price for 100-percent ground beef, year-over-year z-scored on a two-year window and bounded with tanh. The consumer-side demand pass-through lens on CME Live Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.851
Soft Retail extreme-negative, 85 trading days running
Signal state
Extreme NEG
phase -1, retail ground beef YoY well below 2-year baseline
Sample
Monthly BLS, 36-year span
BLS 100% ground beef retail CPI, monthly ffill daily
Historical IC
+0.076 (p = 4e-13)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, significant daily, demand-side overlay
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean, median +1.74%
Firm Retail fwd60d
+1.81% mean
+0.79 pp above baseline, 60.9% hit rate (per-day sample)
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly retail prices for standard consumer food items including 100-percent ground beef. The ground beef retail price is where the cattle value chain terminates at the consumer: packers buy cattle, process to boxed beef, retailers mark up to grocery shelf, and consumers buy by the pound. When ground beef retail prices firm year-over-year, consumer demand is absorbing the full value chain and the cash cattle market inherits support. When retail softens year-over-year, consumer demand is weakening the pass-through and cash cattle faces headwinds. This signal reads the BLS 100-percent ground beef monthly series, computes year-over-year percent change, z-scores on a 504-day (two-year) rolling window with a 126-day minimum, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). In July 2003 the signal pinned saturated-positive at plus 0.98 with LC at 74.20 cents per pound as ground beef retail firmed post-BSE recovery; LC rallied 39 percent over the next sixty days through the demand-side confirmation. In February 1995 the signal fired saturated-negative at minus 0.78 with LC at 75.45 as retail softened pre-cycle-trough; LC fell 22 percent over the next sixty days as consumer-side weakness confirmed the cycle downturn. The memorable twist: this signal is weaker than the LC-Corn Ratio signal on independence tests. Daily IC is plus 0.076 at p-value 4e-13 (significant); non-overlapping IC is plus 0.064 at p-value 0.44 (NOT significant on independent samples). The per-day vs run-entry sampling diverges on sign at the firm-retail tail. Treat as demand-side confirmation overlay, not a standalone directional driver. Read on for the current 85-day Soft Retail firing, the 2003 and 1995 anchor cases, and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC BLS Ground Beef Retail Signal
Composite reads -0.851 as of October 30, 2026, in the Soft Retail extreme-negative band, 85 trading days running. BLS ground beef retail YoY has deflated vs the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range through this firing — forward curve has NOT yet reflected the consumer-side weakness, suggesting the pass-through headwind is still working through the chain.
COMPOSITE
-0.851 / tanh
STATE
Soft Retail
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+0.80% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
8,989 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Soft Retail extreme-negative firing, 85 trading days running. Historical Phase -1 (Soft Retail) delivers mean fwd60d LC +0.80% per-day sample, +0.97% run-entry sample — modestly below baseline. Consumer demand is softening the pass-through, which has historically been a mildly negative setup for forward LC.
THE RETAIL PASS-THROUGH MECHANISM
Ground beef retail is where the LC value chain ends at the consumer. Firm retail year-over-year confirms demand is absorbing the chain; soft retail confirms demand weakness. The signal reads this demand-side absorption with a monthly cadence lag.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as demand-side overlay for the LC fundamental stack. Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (supply cycle), the commercial positioning signal (hedge regime), and USDA cattle-on-feed (near-term supply). The retail signal confirms or contradicts the supply-side read.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.851 in the Soft Retail extreme-negative band, 85 trading days running. The blue signal line has pinned at the saturated-negative level through the entire Q3-Q4 2026 window as BLS ground beef retail YoY has deflated vs the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range through the firing. The 2003 July post-BSE firm-retail anchor is visible as the deepest Firm Retail firing in the sample.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.851 State Soft Retail extreme-negative; 85 trading days running.
- BLS ground beef YoY deflated BLS 100-percent ground beef retail year-over-year has run well below the 2-year baseline through 2026 Q3-Q4. Consumer-side demand softening the retail pass-through.
- State-conditional edge: -0.22 pp mean Soft Retail historical fwd60d LC mean +0.80% per-day, baseline +1.02%. Modestly below baseline. 1995 anchor case delivered -22% through pre-cycle-trough confirmation. 2016 October paradox case saw LC rally +27% despite soft retail — supply dynamics can override.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE RETAIL CALL
Composite -0.851, Soft Retail extreme-negative, 85 trading days running. BLS 100-percent ground beef retail YoY has run well below the 2-year baseline through Q3-Q4 2026 as consumer-side demand softens the pass-through through the value chain.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Soft Retail historically delivers mean fwd60d LC of +0.80% per-day (vs +1.02% baseline, -0.22 pp below) or +0.97% run-entry sample. Both methods agree in direction at this tail: modestly below baseline. 1995 anchor case delivered -22% through pre-cycle-trough confirmation.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Monthly cadence means intra-month retail moves read one month late. Daily IC is significant (+0.076, p=4e-13) but non-overlapping independence test does NOT reach significance. Treat as demand-side overlay confirming the supply-side signals, not a standalone driver.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,989 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean, median plus 1.74 percent. Firm retail historically precedes LC rallies through demand-side pass-through confirmation.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm Retail | +1 | 44.2% (3997 d) | -0.38% | -1.40pp | Jun 2026, Dec 2024, Jun 2024 | |
| Normal | 0 | 16.4% (1481 d) | -0.58% | -1.60pp | Jun 2026, May 2026, Nov 2024 | |
| Soft Retail TODAY | -1 | 39.5% (3571 d) | +0.97% | -0.05pp | Jul 2026, Dec 2024, May 2024 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
The signal pulls the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly retail price series for 100-percent ground beef (BLS_RETAIL_MEAT_AVERAGE_PRICE_MONTHLY, series_name LIKE “%Ground beef%”), averages across sub-series by observation date, forward-fills to daily cadence, computes year-over-year percent change over 252 trading days, z-scores on a 504-day (two-year) rolling window with a 126-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly release cadence — intra-month retail moves read one month late.
Why it matters
Why ground beef retail reads consumer demand pass-through
Ground beef is the single largest-volume beef product in the US consumer market, accounting for approximately 60 percent of beef sold at retail. 100-percent ground beef (not blended with filler) is the standardized BLS retail CPI series. Monthly retail prices reflect the full value-chain pass-through: packer wholesale (boxed beef cutout) + retailer markup + regional distribution costs. Year-over-year retail price moves reflect consumer-side demand absorption; firm retail confirms demand strength, soft retail confirms weakness.
Why this is a demand-side overlay, not a primary driver
Daily IC against LC fwd60d is +0.076 at p=4e-13 (significant), but non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test does NOT reach significance (p=0.44). The per-day vs run-entry sampling comparison diverges on sign at the Firm Retail tail (+1.81% per-day vs -0.38% run-entry). The 2016 October paradox case illustrates: soft retail at the time, but LC rallied 27% as supply-side dynamics overrode. Treat as demand-side overlay for the LC fundamental stack, not a standalone directional driver.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin supply cycle, 6-12 month forward driver), commercial positioning (hedge regime), USDA cattle-on-feed (near-term supply), and processed-foods PPI (broader food-inflation context). The current Soft Retail firing is a demand-side headwind confirmed by the data; whether it dominates forward LC depends on whether supply-side signals align (cattle-on-feed showing abundant supply = confirmation; cattle-on-feed showing tightening = supply override risk per the 2016 paradox).
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The research brief walks through the BLS ground beef retail methodology, documents the 2003 post-BSE recovery and 1995 pre-cycle-trough anchors, explains the 2016 paradox case where supply dynamics overrode demand-side weakness, and surfaces the non-overlapping independence test honestly.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Oct 31, 2026 08:46 PM ET