· Analytic
Z4410 USDA AMS River Barge Index
The USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report river barge index, z-scored across 36 years. Captures Mississippi + Illinois waterway barge rates. High index values signal active US export pull drawing grain to Gulf export terminals , historically bullish for corn forward returns.
Current reading
+0.756
Extreme Pos
DAILY · SIGNAL
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
Current composite
+0.8927
On the plus-or-minus one scale; barge rates significantly above 2-year rolling mean
Signal state
Extreme POS
72 consecutive days in episode
All-time percentile
90.8th
Upper-decile of 36 years
EXTREME_POS corn fwd 60d
+3.59%
1,867 days (20.8%), HAC t +3.93 sig at 1%
EXTREME_NEG corn fwd 60d
-3.00%
1,870 days (20.8%), HAC t -3.59 sig at 1%
Current contribution to ML Auto Corn Composite V9
+0.041
4.6 percent weight × +1 polarity × +0.893 value
OBJECTIVE
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Grain Transportation Report publishes a weekly river barge index tracking Mississippi + Illinois waterway tariff rates. The index reflects spot barge pricing between interior US terminals (St. Louis, Memphis, Cairo) and the Gulf export complex (New Orleans). Barge rates rise when: (a) corn is actively flowing to the Gulf for export, (b) harvest-season dense traffic pushes freight demand above barge capacity, (c) river stage conditions limit barge drafts and reduce effective capacity, (d) diesel + crew costs rise. All four conditions carry corn-market-relevant signal, with the first (active export flow) being the dominant driver. This signal queries the AMS GTR weekly river_index column, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window, and tanh-bounds. The economic logic: high barge rates signal that grain is physically moving to export, which empties interior inventories faster than normal and tightens US cash markets , historically a corn-rally regime. Low barge rates signal slow export flow and ample interior inventory , bearish regime. Across 36 years the empirical pattern is cleanly monotonic. EXTREME_POS state (val above plus 0.5, barge rates significantly above 2-year rolling mean) delivers mean corn fwd 60d of plus 3.59 percent (HAC Newey-West t plus 3.93, significant at 1 percent, 1,867 state-days). EXTREME_NEG state (val below minus 0.5, barge rates significantly below) delivers minus 3.00 percent (HAC t minus 3.59, significant at 1 percent, 1,870 state-days). All four non-NEUTRAL tails HAC-t significant at 5 percent or better. The signal reads plus 0.8927 as of October 23 2026, in EXTREME_POS territory for 72 consecutive trading days at the 90.8 percentile of 36 years , elevated barge rates consistent with the strong 2025-2026 US export program. The signal contributes 4.6 percent weight to ML Auto Corn Composite V9 ML Auto Corn Composite with polarity sign plus one; current contribution plus 0.041.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of USDA AMS GTR river barge index z-score.
COMPOSITE
0.9 / 100
STATE
Extreme Pos
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+0.63% (baseline +2.31%)
SAMPLE N
9,039 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.76 in the Barge Rates Elevated band. The signal reads active US export flow drawing corn to Gulf export terminals via Mississippi and Illinois waterway barges. The parallel Z4411 Rail signal confirms active interior-to-port corn pull across both transportation surfaces. CBOT front-month corn (orange, right axis) sits near $4.48/bu.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.76 State Barge Rates Elevated, deep extreme band. Mississippi and Illinois waterway grain barge rates z-scored above baseline.
- USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report river barge index Spot grain barge rates on Mississippi and Illinois waterways, aggregated weekly. High rates indicate active Gulf export pull.
- Rolling 252d IC vs CBOT corn fwd 60d: -0.302, p=2.1e-05 Recent window shows contrarian signature (negative IC), which can occur when barge-rate spikes are driven by supply-side (low-water, infrastructure) rather than demand-pull. Pair with the sibling rail signal for cleaner directional interpretation.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE RIVER BARGE CHANNEL
The Mississippi + Illinois waterway system is the primary mode for moving US corn from interior production regions to the Gulf export complex. Approximately 60 percent of US corn exports move through the Gulf via barge. When barge rates rise, it signals active export flow , the signal captures this directly.
THE ALL-FIVE-TAILS SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
Four of five tails HAC-t significant at 5 percent or better; both extreme tails sig at 1 percent. Clean monotonic trend-following: high barge → bull corn; low barge → bear corn. One of the cleanest standalone state-conditional patterns in the ML Auto Corn Composite V9 input stack.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Barge rates can rise for reasons OTHER than export demand , low river stages (reduced capacity), diesel + crew cost increases, or seasonal maintenance affecting barge availability. The signal does not distinguish between demand-pull vs supply-constraint drivers. Empirically the demand-pull dominates on the 60-day forward horizon, but readers should recognize the signal captures BARGE RATE not EXPORT VOLUME directly.
THE REGIME MAP
The three USDA AMS River Barge Index regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report river barge index z-score (Mississippi + Illinois waterway grain barge rates). High index values signal active US export pull drawing grain to Gulf export terminals; soft rates signal demand slack. CBOT corn benchmark.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barge Rates Soft | – | 26.3% (2381 d) | -1.25% | -1.54pp | Jun 2026, Dec 2025, May 2025 | |
| Barge Rates Neutral | 0 | 47.2% (4270 d) | +1.47% | +1.18pp | Jul 2026, May 2026, Dec 2025 | |
| Barge Rates Elevated TODAY | + | 26.5% (2393 d) | +0.01% | -0.28pp | Jul 2026, Jan 2026, Jul 2025 |
The historical pattern
Methodology
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Neg | 10/23/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 20d | +4.92% |
| Normal | 11/20/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 59d | +3.37% |
| Extreme Neg | 02/18/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 45d | -3.91% |
| Normal | 04/23/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 20d | +17.43% |
| Extreme Pos | 05/21/2025 | 07/08/2025 | 32d | +10.37% |
| Normal | 07/09/2025 | 07/15/2025 | 5d | +7.24% |
| Extreme Neg | 07/16/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 84d | +7.52% |
| Normal | 11/12/2025 | 12/02/2025 | 14d | +1.28% |
| Extreme Pos | 12/03/2025 | 12/09/2025 | 5d | -0.52% |
| Normal | 12/10/2025 | 01/06/2026 | 18d | -1.51% |
| Extreme Neg | 01/07/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 87d | -4.44% |
| Normal | 05/13/2026 | 06/16/2026 | 24d | +4.14% |
| Extreme Pos | 06/17/2026 | 07/07/2026 | 13d | +2.69% |
| Normal | 07/08/2026 | 07/14/2026 | 5d | +2.49% |
| Extreme Neg | 07/15/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 72d | +2.53% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The engine queries `fundamentals_data.USDA_AMS_GTR_TRANSPORT_COSTS_WEEKLY.river_index` weekly. Forward-fills daily. Z-scores on 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum. Tanh-bounds. Five-state machine on the final the primary composite.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The full research brief adds methodology detail on the USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report, how Mississippi and Illinois waterway rates compose the index, and the distinction between demand-pull barge spikes (bullish for corn) and supply-constraint barge spikes (ambiguous). Includes historical case studies anchored to actual flow regimes, the three-regime state-conditional table, and the methodology for pairing with the Z4411 rail signal, Z4393 ending stocks, and the Corn Cycle DNA playbook.
Taxonomy, polarity, state labels
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 02, 2026 12:12 PM ET