· Analytic
Z12937 EIA Ethanol Daily Corn Input (Macro-Residualized)
The parent signal the companion signal EIA daily US ethanol corn input volumes, residualized against an ES + DX + CL + GC macro basis to strip out common macro beta. The residual carries idiosyncratic ethanol-corn-demand alpha orthogonal to broad market conditions.
Current reading
+0.579
Severe Pos
DAILY · SIGNAL
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
Current composite
+0.6216
On the plus-or-minus one scale; ethanol demand strongly above macro-conditional expectation
Signal state
Severe POS
55 consecutive days in episode
All-time percentile
82.7th
Upper-quintile of 36 years
moderate-neg corn fwd 60d
-8.21%
331 days (3.7%), HAC t -5.59 sig at 1% , sharp small-N bear tail
extreme-pos corn fwd 60d
+0.94%
1,765 days (19.7%), HAC t +1.13
LOCKED portfolio weight
7.7%
1/13 equal-weight in Layer 1 base sleeve, polarity +1
OBJECTIVE
The US ethanol industry consumes approximately 40 percent of total US corn production. Daily ethanol-plant corn grind data is published by the EIA weekly in the Petroleum Supply Monthly / Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Parent signal the companion signal tracks this corn-grind volume as a z-score , but the raw signal is partially correlated with broad macro conditions (strong equity + strong dollar + strong oil typically coincide with high ethanol demand). This signal residualizes the companion signal against an ES (equity) + DX (dollar) + CL (crude oil) + GC (gold) macro basis via rolling OLS. The resulting residual captures idiosyncratic ethanol-corn-demand alpha that is orthogonal to broad macro conditions. The 36-year empirical pattern is bimodal and the sharp tail is on the DOWNSIDE. moderate-neg state (val between minus 0.5 and minus 0.2, moderate negative residualized ethanol-corn signal , ethanol demand below macro-conditional expectation) delivers mean corn fwd 60d of minus 8.21 percent (HAC Newey-West t minus 5.59, significant at 1 percent, 331 state-days , small-N but one of the sharpest bear tails in the LOCKED portfolio). extreme-pos state (ethanol demand above macro-conditional expectation) delivers plus 0.94 percent (HAC t plus 1.13, not statistically significant). The pattern reflects that EXCESS ethanol demand relative to macro conditions provides modest corn-demand lift, while DEFICIT ethanol demand creates sharp corn-demand air pockets. The signal reads +0.579 as of October 23 2026 in extreme-pos territory for 55 consecutive trading days at the 82.7 percentile. Current reading reflects strong idiosyncratic ethanol-corn demand after controlling for broad macro basis. The signal contributes 7.7 percent weight to LOCKED corn portfolio v1_1 Layer 1 base sleeve with polarity sign plus one; current contribution plus 0.048.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of macro-residualized ethanol-corn demand signal.
COMPOSITE
0.6 / 100
STATE
Severe Pos
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+2.37% (baseline +2.31%)
SAMPLE N
9,039 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Severe Pos
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.58 in the Ethanol Demand High band. EIA daily US ethanol corn-input volumes residualized against an ES + DX + CL + GC macro basis read above baseline, capturing idiosyncratic ethanol-corn-demand alpha orthogonal to broad market beta. CBOT front-month corn (orange, right axis) sits near $4.48/bu.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.58 State Ethanol Demand High. Residualized ethanol corn-input volumes reading above baseline.
- EIA daily US ethanol corn-input volumes, residualized against ES + DX + CL + GC Daily corn-grind volumes reported by EIA, residualized against an ES (equities) + DX (dollar) + CL (crude) + GC (gold) macro basket to isolate idiosyncratic ethanol demand.
- IC vs CBOT corn fwd 60d: Spearman +0.012, p=0.43 (WEAK) Not statistically significant on full sample. The signal captures ethanol-specific demand dynamics but doesn’t translate cleanly to 60-day forward corn prices as a standalone directional read.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE RESIDUALIZATION MECHANISM
Parent signal the companion signal reads raw EIA weekly ethanol corn input volumes as a z-score. The raw series is partially correlated with ES + DX + CL + GC macro basis , when the equity market is strong, dollar strong, crude strong, and gold strong, ethanol demand is typically also strong. The residualization strips out this common macro beta via rolling 252-day OLS regression. The residual captures the IDIOSYNCRATIC component of ethanol-corn demand that is orthogonal to broad macro conditions , a pure ethanol-industry alpha signal.
THE SHARP BEAR TAIL
Across 36 years, the moderate-neg state (ethanol demand below macro-conditional expectation) delivers minus 8.21 percent corn fwd 60d with HAC Newey-West t minus 5.59 on 331 state-days (3.7 percent of sample). This is one of the sharpest small-N bear tails in the LOCKED corn portfolio. The economic logic: when ethanol-corn demand DEFICITS appear despite favorable macro conditions, it signals specific-industry stress (plant shutdowns, policy risk, margin squeezes) that creates corn-demand air pockets with 60-day forward resolution.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
The signal is a RESIDUAL of parent the companion signal; the parent signal’s underlying mechanics (EIA weekly publication cadence, data revisions, publication lag) propagate through the residualization. The 252-day rolling-OLS basis assumption may not hold during regime shifts; recommend re-grading before Y-wrap per the engine’s own note. The extreme-pos tail delivers near-baseline forward returns and should not be interpreted as a bullish-direction signal despite its name. The signal’s statistical power is concentrated in the moderate-neg small-N bear tail.
THE REGIME MAP
The three EIA ethanol corn-input regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across EIA daily US ethanol corn-input volumes, residualized against an ES + DX + CL + GC macro basis to strip common macro beta. The residual carries idiosyncratic ethanol-corn-demand alpha orthogonal to broad market beta. CBOT corn benchmark.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethanol Demand Low | – | 9.6% (872 d) | -7.19% | -7.48pp | Jul 2026, Apr 2026, Apr 2026 | |
| Ethanol Demand Neutral | 0 | 64.3% (5819 d) | -6.62% | -6.91pp | Aug 2026, Jul 2026, Jun 2026 | |
| Ethanol Demand High TODAY | + | 26.0% (2353 d) | -5.33% | -5.62pp | Aug 2026, Aug 2026, Jun 2026 |
The historical pattern
Methodology
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Neg | 10/23/2024 | 04/02/2025 | 111d | +4.92% |
| Normal | 04/03/2025 | 04/04/2025 | 2d | +15.08% |
| Extreme Neg | 04/07/2025 | 04/07/2025 | 1d | +23.98% |
| Normal | 04/08/2025 | 04/08/2025 | 1d | +25.02% |
| Extreme Neg | 04/09/2025 | 04/09/2025 | 1d | +13.07% |
| Normal | 04/10/2025 | 04/10/2025 | 1d | +18.96% |
| Extreme Neg | 04/11/2025 | 04/15/2025 | 3d | +17.21% |
| Normal | 04/16/2025 | 04/16/2025 | 1d | +18.35% |
| Extreme Neg | 04/17/2025 | 04/17/2025 | 1d | +18.58% |
| Normal | 04/21/2025 | 04/21/2025 | 1d | +22.22% |
| Extreme Neg | 04/22/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 4d | +19.03% |
| Normal | 04/28/2025 | 04/28/2025 | 1d | +15.17% |
| Extreme Neg | 04/29/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 4d | +14.93% |
| Normal | 05/05/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 2d | +12.17% |
| Extreme Neg | 05/07/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 2d | +12.48% |
| Normal | 05/09/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 1d | +12.13% |
| Extreme Neg | 05/12/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 1d | +8.45% |
| Normal | 05/13/2025 | 06/10/2025 | 20d | +8.58% |
| Extreme Pos | 06/11/2025 | 06/20/2025 | 7d | +7.80% |
| Normal | 06/23/2025 | 06/23/2025 | 1d | +9.84% |
| Extreme Pos | 06/24/2025 | 06/26/2025 | 3d | +9.29% |
| Normal | 06/27/2025 | 06/27/2025 | 1d | +7.85% |
| Extreme Pos | 06/30/2025 | 06/30/2025 | 1d | +7.35% |
| Normal | 07/01/2025 | 07/01/2025 | 1d | +6.73% |
| Extreme Pos | 07/02/2025 | 07/09/2025 | 5d | +6.67% |
| Normal | 07/10/2025 | 07/15/2025 | 4d | +6.93% |
| Extreme Pos | 07/16/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 8d | +7.52% |
| Normal | 07/28/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 1d | +5.39% |
| Extreme Pos | 07/29/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 1d | +5.12% |
| Normal | 07/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 1d | +5.88% |
| Extreme Pos | 07/31/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 2d | +7.15% |
| Normal | 08/04/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 1d | +8.85% |
| Extreme Pos | 08/05/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 2d | +9.46% |
| Normal | 08/07/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 2d | +7.88% |
| Extreme Pos | 08/11/2025 | 03/23/2026 | 155d | +6.18% |
| Normal | 03/24/2026 | 03/24/2026 | 1d | +14.32% |
| Extreme Pos | 03/25/2026 | 03/25/2026 | 1d | +13.33% |
| Normal | 03/26/2026 | 03/30/2026 | 3d | +13.72% |
| Extreme Pos | 03/31/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 1d | +12.09% |
| Normal | 04/01/2026 | 04/07/2026 | 4d | +13.09% |
| Extreme Pos | 04/08/2026 | 04/08/2026 | 1d | +11.13% |
| Normal | 04/09/2026 | 04/16/2026 | 6d | +9.97% |
| Extreme Pos | 04/17/2026 | 04/17/2026 | 1d | +6.29% |
| Normal | 04/20/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 4d | +5.93% |
| Extreme Pos | 04/24/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 1d | +4.69% |
| Normal | 04/27/2026 | 06/05/2026 | 29d | +3.22% |
| Extreme Neg | 06/08/2026 | 06/08/2026 | 1d | +3.51% |
| Normal | 06/09/2026 | 06/09/2026 | 1d | +4.90% |
| Extreme Neg | 06/10/2026 | 06/10/2026 | 1d | +6.17% |
| Normal | 06/11/2026 | 07/15/2026 | 23d | +3.82% |
| Extreme Pos | 07/16/2026 | 07/16/2026 | 1d | +3.71% |
| Normal | 07/17/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 14d | +4.68% |
| Extreme Neg | 08/06/2026 | 08/12/2026 | 5d | |
| Normal | 08/13/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 1d | |
| Extreme Neg | 08/14/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 50d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The engine reads parent signal the companion signal (EIA daily US ethanol corn input volumes) from `C:/Projects/Z 3559/data_pipeline/the companion signal_V9.engine data`. Residualizes the parent signal against an ES + DX + CL + GC macro basis via rolling OLS (window=252d default). Takes the residual series. Reindexes to backtest dates. The residual is the signal value. Five-state machine on the final the primary composite.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The full research brief adds methodology detail on the EIA daily ethanol corn-input data source, the ES + DX + CL + GC macro-residualization logic, and why the residualization isolates idiosyncratic ethanol-demand alpha. Includes historical case studies anchored to actual ethanol-demand regime shifts (COVID collapse, 2021 recovery, 2024 policy churn), the three-regime state-conditional table, and the methodology for pairing with Ending Stocks, US vs Global, Commercials positioning, and the Corn Cycle DNA playbook.
Taxonomy, polarity, state labels
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 02, 2026 02:34 PM ET