GC · Metals / Geopolitical Tone
Z2433 – GC Gold GDELT Russia Tone
Negative GDELT Russia tone captures geopolitical stress regimes; Phase minus-1 Russia-stress has delivered 170 basis-point edge on gold forward 60-day returns across 13 years.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.087
GDELT Russia tone z-score, tanh-bounded
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
Normal
5 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals Russia tone calm; negative equals tone stress
Sample
13 years
GDELT since April 2013, roughly 3,421 trading days
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Russia-related geopolitical stress has been a recurring gold safe-haven driver. The 2014 Crimea annexation window, the 2018 Skripal response, and the February 2022 Ukraine invasion all drove GDELT Russia tone deeply negative ; and each coincided with gold strength. This signal reads daily GDELT Russia tone, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh. The polarity is non-standard: Phase minus-1 (Russia-stress tone) has delivered the strongest forward 60-day gold returns (+3.85 percent mean), Phase plus-1 (Russia-calm tone) the weakest (+0.96 percent). Today the composite reads +0.087, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
13 years of GDELT Russia news-tone, inverted into a geopolitical regime lens.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale green band at the top marks tone-calm regime where Russia-related media tone is favorable and the signal is in Phase +1. The pale red band at the bottom marks tone-stress regime where Russia-related tone is negative and the signal is in Phase -1. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient against gold forward 60-day returns. The lower panel is COMEX GC continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce. Dashed threshold lines at plus and minus 0.2 mark the phase transitions.
COMPOSITE
-0.300 / tanh
STATE
Moderate Neg
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+3.33% (baseline +2.36%)
SAMPLE N
5,014 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND READING
Normal, 5 trading days. The composite at +0.087 is at the Russia Relief threshold.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Russia news-tone has moderated through October 2026 relative to the trailing 504-day rolling mean. The composite crossing into relief territory reflects a cooler coverage tone than the sustained-stress period of 2022-2024.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
Historical pattern shows the Russia Relief state (composite below minus 0.3) has preceded mean plus 3.48 percent SPY fwd 60d, HAC t plus 5.95, the strongest conditional SPY-forward state in the sample. The signal is strategic, not tactical.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.087 placing the dot inside the Normal band. Watch for sustained negative tone during Russia geopolitical events as leading indicator of gold safe-haven flows.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- GDELT Russia daily tone Primary input; daily global media tone on Russia-related news.
- Rolling z-score Standardizes against trailing baseline.
- Market phase direction Direction of current state run.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the three regime states computed from 5,014 trading days (November 2006 through October 2026, with effective GDELT coverage from April 2013). Baseline SPY forward 60-day return (unconditional): plus 2.36 percent, median plus 3.45 percent, std 7.57 percent, pct negative 28.0 percent. HAC t-statistic via Newey-West (lag 60).
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tone calm | +1 | 45.6% (1559 d) | +0.96% | -1.22pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 23.9% (817 d) | +2.33% | +0.16pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Tone stress | -1 | 30.5% (1045 d) | +3.85% | +1.68pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Sep 2026 |
The historical pattern
Why it matters
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d GC via GLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia Relief | 10/28/2024 | 11/15/2024 | 15d | +3.19% |
| Baseline | 11/18/2024 | 11/18/2024 | 1d | +3.97% |
| Russia Stress | 11/19/2024 | 11/22/2024 | 4d | +3.83% |
| Baseline | 11/25/2024 | 11/25/2024 | 1d | -0.55% |
| Russia Stress | 11/26/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 1d | -1.02% |
| Baseline | 11/27/2024 | 11/29/2024 | 2d | -2.30% |
| Russia Stress | 12/02/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 1d | -3.29% |
| Russia Relief | 12/03/2024 | 12/03/2024 | 1d | -4.48% |
| Baseline | 12/04/2024 | 12/05/2024 | 2d | -4.05% |
| Russia Relief | 12/06/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 1d | -5.25% |
| Russia Stress | 12/09/2024 | 12/09/2024 | 1d | -7.29% |
| Baseline | 12/10/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 2d | -7.78% |
| Russia Relief | 12/12/2024 | 12/12/2024 | 1d | -8.76% |
| Baseline | 12/13/2024 | 12/16/2024 | 2d | -6.85% |
| Russia Stress | 12/17/2024 | 12/18/2024 | 2d | -7.16% |
| Baseline | 12/19/2024 | 12/19/2024 | 1d | -3.52% |
| Russia Stress | 12/20/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 1d | -4.60% |
| Baseline | 12/23/2024 | 12/24/2024 | 2d | -3.47% |
| Russia Stress | 12/26/2024 | 12/27/2024 | 2d | -5.45% |
| Baseline | 12/30/2024 | 12/31/2024 | 2d | -5.54% |
| Russia Stress | 01/02/2025 | 01/03/2025 | 2d | -4.05% |
| Baseline | 01/06/2025 | 01/08/2025 | 3d | -9.85% |
| Russia Relief | 01/10/2025 | 01/10/2025 | 1d | -14.47% |
| Baseline | 01/13/2025 | 01/13/2025 | 1d | -5.64% |
| Russia Relief | 01/14/2025 | 01/14/2025 | 1d | -9.90% |
| Baseline | 01/15/2025 | 01/15/2025 | 1d | -9.93% |
| Russia Relief | 01/16/2025 | 01/23/2025 | 5d | -8.88% |
| Russia Stress | 01/24/2025 | 01/24/2025 | 1d | -13.28% |
| Baseline | 01/27/2025 | 01/27/2025 | 1d | -10.67% |
| Russia Relief | 01/28/2025 | 01/30/2025 | 3d | -9.57% |
| Baseline | 01/31/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 1d | -7.89% |
| Russia Relief | 02/03/2025 | 02/05/2025 | 3d | -7.23% |
| Baseline | 02/06/2025 | 02/07/2025 | 2d | -7.06% |
| Russia Relief | 02/10/2025 | 03/28/2025 | 34d | -7.22% |
| Baseline | 03/31/2025 | 03/31/2025 | 1d | +9.38% |
| Russia Relief | 04/01/2025 | 04/04/2025 | 4d | +9.62% |
| Russia Stress | 04/07/2025 | 04/07/2025 | 1d | +23.98% |
| Russia Relief | 04/08/2025 | 04/09/2025 | 2d | +25.02% |
| Baseline | 04/10/2025 | 04/10/2025 | 1d | +18.96% |
| Russia Relief | 04/11/2025 | 04/11/2025 | 1d | +17.21% |
| Russia Stress | 04/14/2025 | 04/15/2025 | 2d | +15.67% |
| Baseline | 04/16/2025 | 04/16/2025 | 1d | +18.35% |
| Russia Relief | 04/17/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 4d | +18.58% |
| Baseline | 04/24/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 2d | +15.03% |
| Russia Relief | 04/28/2025 | 04/28/2025 | 1d | +15.17% |
| Baseline | 04/29/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 1d | +14.93% |
| Russia Relief | 04/30/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 15d | +14.86% |
| Baseline | 05/21/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 2d | +10.37% |
| Russia Relief | 05/23/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 1d | +10.19% |
| Russia Stress | 05/27/2025 | 05/27/2025 | 1d | +7.51% |
| Baseline | 05/28/2025 | 05/28/2025 | 1d | +9.80% |
| Russia Relief | 05/29/2025 | 05/30/2025 | 2d | +8.88% |
| Russia Stress | 06/02/2025 | 06/03/2025 | 2d | +9.10% |
| Baseline | 06/04/2025 | 06/04/2025 | 1d | +8.24% |
| Russia Relief | 06/05/2025 | 06/05/2025 | 1d | +7.96% |
| Russia Stress | 06/06/2025 | 06/11/2025 | 4d | +7.26% |
| Baseline | 06/12/2025 | 07/01/2025 | 13d | +7.42% |
| Russia Stress | 07/02/2025 | 07/02/2025 | 1d | +6.67% |
| Baseline | 07/03/2025 | 07/03/2025 | 1d | +6.13% |
| Russia Stress | 07/07/2025 | 07/10/2025 | 4d | +7.33% |
| Russia Relief | 07/11/2025 | 07/15/2025 | 3d | +7.70% |
| Baseline | 07/16/2025 | 07/17/2025 | 2d | +7.52% |
| Russia Stress | 07/18/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 13d | +5.65% |
| Baseline | 08/06/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 1d | +7.44% |
| Russia Relief | 08/07/2025 | 08/27/2025 | 15d | +7.88% |
| Russia Stress | 08/28/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 1d | +1.56% |
| Baseline | 08/29/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 1d | +3.67% |
| Russia Relief | 09/02/2025 | 09/05/2025 | 4d | +5.43% |
| Russia Stress | 09/08/2025 | 09/08/2025 | 1d | +5.14% |
| Baseline | 09/09/2025 | 09/09/2025 | 1d | +5.45% |
| Russia Stress | 09/10/2025 | 09/15/2025 | 4d | +4.93% |
| Baseline | 09/16/2025 | 09/16/2025 | 1d | +4.18% |
| Russia Relief | 09/17/2025 | 09/17/2025 | 1d | +4.55% |
| Baseline | 09/18/2025 | 09/18/2025 | 1d | +2.81% |
| Russia Stress | 09/19/2025 | 09/23/2025 | 3d | +2.57% |
| Baseline | 09/24/2025 | 09/25/2025 | 2d | +1.99% |
| Russia Stress | 09/26/2025 | 09/26/2025 | 1d | +3.48% |
| Baseline | 09/29/2025 | 09/30/2025 | 2d | +3.66% |
| Russia Stress | 10/01/2025 | 10/06/2025 | 4d | +3.27% |
| Russia Relief | 10/07/2025 | 10/07/2025 | 1d | +2.10% |
| Baseline | 10/08/2025 | 10/08/2025 | 1d | +2.17% |
| Russia Relief | 10/09/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 7d | +3.08% |
| Baseline | 10/20/2025 | 10/20/2025 | 1d | +3.12% |
| Russia Relief | 10/21/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 1d | +3.03% |
| Baseline | 10/22/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 1d | +1.46% |
| Russia Stress | 10/23/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 2d | +2.03% |
| Russia Relief | 10/27/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 1d | +0.58% |
| Baseline | 10/28/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 1d | +0.83% |
| Russia Stress | 10/29/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 1d | +1.18% |
| Baseline | 10/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 1d | +2.29% |
| Russia Stress | 10/31/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 1d | +1.76% |
| Baseline | 11/03/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 1d | +1.26% |
| Russia Relief | 11/04/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 2d | +2.99% |
| Baseline | 11/06/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 1d | +2.37% |
| Russia Relief | 11/07/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 3d | +0.99% |
| Baseline | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Russia Stress | 11/14/2025 | 11/14/2025 | 1d | +1.39% |
| Russia Relief | 11/17/2025 | 12/16/2025 | 21d | +2.42% |
| Baseline | 12/17/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 3d | -0.09% |
| Russia Relief | 12/22/2025 | 12/22/2025 | 1d | -5.29% |
| Russia Stress | 12/23/2025 | 12/23/2025 | 1d | -4.74% |
| Baseline | 12/24/2025 | 12/24/2025 | 1d | -5.39% |
| Russia Relief | 12/26/2025 | 12/29/2025 | 2d | -4.85% |
| Russia Stress | 12/30/2025 | 01/05/2026 | 4d | -7.70% |
| Russia Relief | 01/06/2026 | 01/06/2026 | 1d | -5.20% |
| Baseline | 01/07/2026 | 01/07/2026 | 1d | -4.44% |
| Russia Stress | 01/08/2026 | 01/14/2026 | 5d | -4.39% |
| Baseline | 01/15/2026 | 01/16/2026 | 2d | +0.32% |
| Russia Relief | 01/20/2026 | 01/26/2026 | 5d | +3.55% |
| Baseline | 01/27/2026 | 01/29/2026 | 3d | +1.86% |
| Russia Relief | 01/30/2026 | 01/30/2026 | 1d | +2.85% |
| Baseline | 02/02/2026 | 02/03/2026 | 2d | +2.33% |
| Russia Relief | 02/04/2026 | 02/05/2026 | 2d | +5.02% |
| Russia Stress | 02/06/2026 | 02/09/2026 | 2d | +4.80% |
| Baseline | 02/10/2026 | 02/10/2026 | 1d | +5.70% |
| Russia Stress | 02/11/2026 | 02/12/2026 | 2d | +6.60% |
| Baseline | 02/13/2026 | 02/13/2026 | 1d | +8.28% |
| Russia Stress | 02/17/2026 | 02/17/2026 | 1d | +8.71% |
| Baseline | 02/18/2026 | 02/20/2026 | 3d | +9.02% |
| Russia Stress | 02/23/2026 | 03/06/2026 | 10d | +7.52% |
| Baseline | 03/09/2026 | 03/09/2026 | 1d | +11.20% |
| Russia Stress | 03/10/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 4d | +11.80% |
| Baseline | 03/16/2026 | 03/16/2026 | 1d | +8.43% |
| Russia Stress | 03/17/2026 | 03/24/2026 | 6d | +9.98% |
| Baseline | 03/25/2026 | 03/25/2026 | 1d | +13.33% |
| Russia Stress | 03/26/2026 | 03/26/2026 | 1d | +13.72% |
| Baseline | 03/27/2026 | 03/27/2026 | 1d | +15.64% |
| Russia Stress | 03/30/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 2d | +16.19% |
| Baseline | 04/01/2026 | 04/01/2026 | 1d | +13.09% |
| Russia Relief | 04/02/2026 | 04/02/2026 | 1d | +13.87% |
| Russia Stress | 04/06/2026 | 04/10/2026 | 5d | +13.18% |
| Russia Relief | 04/13/2026 | 04/15/2026 | 3d | +9.56% |
| Russia Stress | 04/16/2026 | 04/16/2026 | 1d | +7.15% |
| Baseline | 04/17/2026 | 04/17/2026 | 1d | +6.29% |
| Russia Stress | 04/20/2026 | 04/21/2026 | 2d | +5.93% |
| Baseline | 04/22/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 3d | +4.34% |
| Russia Relief | 04/27/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 2d | +3.22% |
| Russia Stress | 04/29/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 1d | +3.87% |
| Baseline | 04/30/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 1d | +3.09% |
| Russia Stress | 05/01/2026 | 05/18/2026 | 12d | +1.22% |
| Russia Relief | 05/19/2026 | 05/21/2026 | 3d | +5.81% |
| Baseline | 05/22/2026 | 05/22/2026 | 1d | +3.14% |
| Russia Stress | 05/26/2026 | 05/27/2026 | 2d | +1.60% |
| Russia Relief | 05/28/2026 | 05/28/2026 | 1d | +1.18% |
| Russia Stress | 05/29/2026 | 06/03/2026 | 4d | +1.25% |
| Russia Relief | 06/04/2026 | 06/09/2026 | 4d | +1.32% |
| Baseline | 06/10/2026 | 06/12/2026 | 3d | +6.17% |
| Russia Stress | 06/15/2026 | 06/16/2026 | 2d | +0.40% |
| Russia Relief | 06/17/2026 | 06/17/2026 | 1d | +2.69% |
| Baseline | 06/18/2026 | 06/18/2026 | 1d | +1.43% |
| Russia Stress | 06/22/2026 | 06/29/2026 | 6d | +1.30% |
| Baseline | 06/30/2026 | 07/01/2026 | 2d | +2.73% |
| Russia Stress | 07/02/2026 | 07/06/2026 | 2d | +2.80% |
| Baseline | 07/07/2026 | 07/08/2026 | 2d | +2.00% |
| Russia Stress | 07/09/2026 | 07/09/2026 | 1d | +2.39% |
| Baseline | 07/10/2026 | 07/10/2026 | 1d | +2.63% |
| Russia Relief | 07/13/2026 | 07/13/2026 | 1d | +3.99% |
| Baseline | 07/14/2026 | 07/15/2026 | 2d | +3.38% |
| Russia Relief | 07/16/2026 | 07/16/2026 | 1d | +3.71% |
| Baseline | 07/17/2026 | 07/20/2026 | 2d | +4.68% |
| Russia Relief | 07/21/2026 | 07/21/2026 | 1d | +2.85% |
| Baseline | 07/22/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 2d | +3.26% |
| Russia Stress | 07/24/2026 | 07/27/2026 | 2d | +3.73% |
| Baseline | 07/28/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 1d | +4.35% |
| Russia Stress | 07/29/2026 | 08/21/2026 | 18d | +4.73% |
| Baseline | 08/24/2026 | 08/24/2026 | 1d | |
| Russia Relief | 08/25/2026 | 08/26/2026 | 2d | |
| Russia Stress | 08/27/2026 | 08/28/2026 | 2d | |
| Baseline | 08/31/2026 | 09/01/2026 | 2d | |
| Russia Stress | 09/02/2026 | 09/03/2026 | 2d | |
| Baseline | 09/04/2026 | 09/04/2026 | 1d | |
| Russia Relief | 09/08/2026 | 09/11/2026 | 4d | |
| Baseline | 09/14/2026 | 09/15/2026 | 2d | |
| Russia Stress | 09/16/2026 | 09/16/2026 | 1d | |
| Baseline | 09/17/2026 | 09/17/2026 | 1d | |
| Russia Stress | 09/18/2026 | 10/15/2026 | 20d | |
| Baseline | 10/16/2026 | 10/20/2026 | 3d | |
| Russia Relief | 10/21/2026 | 10/21/2026 | 1d | |
| Baseline | 10/22/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 2d | |
| Russia Relief | 10/26/2026 | 10/26/2026 | 1d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day GC via GLD is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
GDELT Russia tone captures daily global media sentiment on Russia-related news. The signal reads daily tone, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh. Tone stress (negative tone, negative composite) captures geopolitical crisis regimes like the 2014 Crimea annexation, 2018 Skripal response, and 2022 Ukraine invasion. Tone calm (positive composite) captures normalized regimes.
Why it matters
Negative GDELT Russia tone captures Russia-related geopolitical crisis regimes. These regimes drive institutional reallocation toward safe-haven assets including gold.
Phase -1 Russia-stress has delivered +3.85% mean fwd60d gold versus +2.18% baseline. Pair with credit-stress and sovereign-stress for multi-channel safe-haven view.
GDELT tone is proxy for sentiment. Routine Russia news can produce tone volatility unrelated to gold-driving geopolitical events. Pair with event-specific context.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:11 AM ET