CT SPECIALIST · Softs / US Phenology
Z3408 – [CT] NASS US Cotton Squaring Pace Signal
NASS weekly US cotton squaring pace year-over-year captures phenology timing stress on the US crop and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the growing-cycle channel.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUN
Current reading
+0.205
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUN
US cotton squaring window runs June through August; off-season composite ffills through…
Signal state
Ahead of Pace
39 days in Neutral phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
USDA NASS weekly release
Sample
26-year window
Weekly cadence; 2000 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW JUN-AUG US COTTON SQUARING WINDOW
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
USDA NASS Crop Progress reports publish weekly estimates of US cotton squaring percent complete during the June through August yield-determination window. Squaring is the growth phase when cotton plants develop flower buds; the pace of squaring progress year-over-year signals whether the US crop is tracking ahead of, on, or behind normal development. Deviation from trend-pace precedes yield outcomes visible in Cotton futures at 60-day horizons. Daily Spearman IC against Cotton forward 60-day returns is minus 0.071 at p-value 8.2e-9 across 6,569 observations, strongly significant on the 26-year sample. The signal exhibits a highly non-monotone phase pattern where Phase 0 (On Trend pace) delivers plus 0.76 pp above baseline while Phase +1 (Ahead of Pace) delivers minus 3.05 pp below baseline. The directional edge concentrates in the Phase +1 extreme.
LIVE CHART
CT NASS US Cotton Squaring Pace Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the USDA NASS US cotton squaring percent complete year-over-year z-score and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means squaring is ahead of normal pace; negative composite means behind pace. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Cotton forward 60-day returns.
CHART PLACEHOLDER
Live chart renders here once the Node.js data layer is wired. Until then this slot shows a static placeholder.
COMPOSITE
+0.205 / tanh
STATE
Ahead of Pace
PHASE
+0.21
PHASE +1 EDGE
-3.05 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+0.10 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Ahead of Pace firing at composite +0.205, 39 trading days running in Neutral phase. Phase +1 (Ahead of Pace) delivers minus 2.08 percent fwd60d / minus 3.05 pp below plus 0.97 percent baseline. Phase -1 (Behind Pace) delivers plus 1.07 percent / plus 0.10 pp near baseline. Daily Spearman IC minus 0.071 at p-value 8.2e-9 strongly significant.
THE PHENOLOGY MECHANISM
USDA NASS Crop Progress publishes weekly US cotton squaring percent complete during June- August. Squaring is the flower-bud phase; pace relative to trend-year reveals whether US cotton development is tracking stressed (behind), normal, or accelerated (ahead). Ahead-of-pace years often reflect favorable early-season weather and preview strong yields that pressure Cotton.
HOW TO POSITION
Phenology overlay for Cotton via NASS squaring pace channel. Ahead of Pace firings flag bearish regimes where strong US crop development pressures price via supply strength. Behind Pace firings flag near-baseline regimes. Pair with US Cotton Belt DSCI, USDA PSD production, India and China supply, and CFTC positioning.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.205 in the Ahead of Pace band. USDA NASS US cotton squaring progress has run ahead of trend pace through the 2026 growing season.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.205 State Ahead of Pace, 39 days running in Neutral phase.
- NASS US cotton squaring ahead of trend pace Raw z-score +0.21; USDA NASS US cotton squaring percent complete has run modestly ahead of trend pace through the 2026 growing season.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap not independent Daily Spearman IC minus 0.071 at p-value 8.2e-9 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC plus 0.009 at p-value 0.92 not independently significant on 110 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PHENOLOGY CALL
Composite +0.205, Ahead of Pace. USDA NASS US cotton squaring progress has run ahead of trend pace through the 2026 growing season. Signal firing in Ahead of Pace bucket for 39 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase +1 historically runs minus 3.05 pp below baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC minus 0.071 at p-value 8.2e-9 strongly significant on 26-year sample. Phase +1 (Ahead of Pace) delivers sharp minus 3.05 pp; Phase 0 (On Trend) delivers plus 0.76 pp; Phase -1 (Behind Pace) delivers plus 0.10 pp. The directional edge concentrates in the Phase +1 extreme bearish tail; the signal is highly non-monotone.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.009 at p-value 0.92 not independently significant on 110 samples. Signal is seasonal (June-August squaring window); off-season composite ffills. Pattern is non-monotone with majority Phase 0 (73 percent sample share) carrying mildly bullish edge. The signal functions as a one-sided ahead-of-pace bearish warning rather than symmetric overlay.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,569 post-warmup trading days (2000 onward). Baseline Cotton fwd60d mean plus 0.97 percent. Phase +1 (Ahead of Pace) delivers -3.05 pp edge; Phase -1 (Behind Pace) delivers +0.10 pp. Highly non-monotone pattern concentrated in the Phase +1 bearish tail.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahead of Pace TODAY | +1 | 18.4% (1209 d) | -2.08% | -3.05pp | 2026 (current), 2018-19, 2010 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 72.6% (4770 d) | +1.73% | +0.76pp | various | |
| Behind Pace | -1 | 9.0% (590 d) | +1.07% | +0.10pp | 2022 (frost delay), 2011, 2003 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of USDA NASS US cotton squaring percent complete year-over-year percent change on a rolling window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals squaring ahead of normal pace; negative composite equals behind pace. Target ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why NASS squaring pace matters
USDA NASS Crop Progress publishes weekly US cotton squaring percent complete during the June-August window. Squaring is the flower-bud phase of cotton growth that establishes the structure for boll development; pace relative to trend-year reveals whether the US crop is tracking stressed, normal, or accelerated. Ahead-of-pace years often reflect favorable early- season weather and preview strong yields that pressure Cotton futures 60 days out; behind-pace years often reflect stress and approximately-baseline forward returns.
How to use this signal today
Phenology overlay for Cotton via the NASS squaring pace channel. Ahead of Pace firings flag bearish regimes where strong US crop development pressures price via supply strength; Behind Pace firings flag near-baseline regimes. Pair with US Cotton Belt DSCI (short-lead weather), USDA PSD US production (systemic supply), India and China supply signals, and CFTC positioning for stacked US-growing-cycle conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant on 26-year sample but non-overlap test plus 0.009 at p-value 0.92 not independently significant on 110 samples. Signal is seasonal (June-August squaring window). Pattern is highly non-monotone with majority Phase 0 (73 percent sample) delivering plus 0.76 pp edge and Phase +1 Ahead of Pace carrying the sharp bearish signal. The signal functions as a one-sided ahead-of-pace bearish warning rather than symmetric overlay.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 10:00 AM ET