· Analytic
Z3763 LC Cattle Slaughter Mix Signal
USDA NASS steer share of commercial cattle slaughter, z-scored on five years — the herd-phase composition signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.811
High Steer Share EXTREME POS firing
Signal state
Extreme POS
phase +1, steer share elevated vs 5y baseline
Sample
Monthly USDA NASS, 36-year span
Steer share of commercial slaughter, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.095 (p < 1e-19)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, significant daily
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean
High Steer Share fwd60d
+2.35% mean
+1.33 pp above baseline, 64% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS tracks monthly commercial cattle slaughter by category — steers, heifers, cows, and bulls. The composition of slaughter reveals which phase of the cattle cycle is active. When steers dominate the mix, the industry is finishing high-grade feedlot cattle — herd contraction phase with tight forward supply. When cows and heifers spike as a share of slaughter, producers are liquidating breeding herd — expansion/liquidation phase with abundant near-term supply but future herd contraction loading. This signal reads the STEERS share of total commercial cattle slaughter (steers + heifers + cows + bulls), z-scores on a 1,260-day (five-year) rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly USDA release. High Steer Share (positive composite) means steers are dominating the slaughter mix. The industry is finishing feedlot cattle at a steady pace with limited breeding-herd culling — a sign of herd contraction. Quality beef supply is tight; forward LC prices firm. Historically BULLISH LC forward. Low Steer Share (negative composite) means cows and heifers are running elevated in the mix — breeding-herd liquidation. Near-term supply is abundant but future herd contraction is loading. Historically BEARISH LC forward via the near-term supply pressure. The memorable finding: Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.095 at p-value < 1e-19 across 9,049 trading days -- significant daily. Non-overlapping independence test at p-value 0.41 is not significant. Phase +1 (High Steer Share) delivers +2.35% fwd60d (+1.33 pp edge, hit 64%). Phase -1 (Low Steer Share) delivers +0.08% fwd60d (-0.94 pp edge, hit 53%). Grade B herd-phase composition signal. Current reading: High Steer Share EXTREME POS firing at composite +0.811. Steer share is deeply elevated in the slaughter mix -- herd contraction phase active. Historical Phase +1 delivers meaningfully above baseline at 64% hit rate. Read on for the historical anchors and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC Cattle Slaughter Mix Signal
Composite reads +0.811 as of October 30, 2026, in the High Steer Share EXTREME POS band. Steer share is deeply elevated in commercial slaughter mix. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.811 / tanh
STATE
High Steer Share
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+2.35% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
High Steer Share EXTREME POS firing, 60 days running. Phase +1 historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +2.35%, hit 64%, +1.33 pp above baseline. Phase -1 (Low Steer Share) delivers +0.08% / 53% hit / -0.94 pp below baseline.
THE COMPOSITION MECHANISM
High steer share = herd contraction phase, quality beef supply tight = bullish LC. Low steer share = cows/heifers in mix = breeding-herd liquidation = near-term supply pressure = bearish LC.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with LC-corn ratio, FC-LC spread, cattle inventory, slaughter YoY. Slaughter mix is a focused herd-phase composition signal distinct from slaughter volume.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.811 in the High Steer Share EXTREME POS band. The blue signal line has moved above the +0.5 extreme threshold as steer share of monthly slaughter stays deeply elevated. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.811 State High Steer Share EXTREME POS firing, 60 days running.
- Steer share elevated Steers are dominating the commercial slaughter mix — herd contraction phase active after 2022-2023 drought liquidation.
- State-conditional edge: +1.33 pp mean High Steer Share historical fwd60d LC mean +2.35%, baseline +1.02%, hit 64%. Current firing in EXTREME POS sub-band — high-conviction constructive directional read.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE COMPOSITION CALL
Composite +0.811, High Steer Share EXTREME POS firing. Steers are dominating the commercial slaughter mix — herd contraction phase active.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
High Steer Share historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +2.35% (+1.33 pp vs baseline, hit 64%). Current firing is in EXTREME POS sub-band — typically a stronger signal than Moderate.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC +0.095 significant; non-overlap p=0.41 not significant. Grade B directional edge. Monthly cadence slows signal updates. Composition tells you WHICH cycle phase is active.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean. Grade B directional signal distinguishing herd-contraction from herd-liquidation phases.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Steer Share TODAY | +1 | 26.4% (2390 d) | +0.41% | -0.61pp | Mar 2026, Mar 2024, Jan 2024 | |
| Normal | 0 | 43.4% (3929 d) | +0.85% | -0.17pp | Feb 2026, Feb 2024, Dec 2023 | |
| Low Steer Share | -1 | 30.2% (2730 d) | +2.78% | +1.76pp | Oct 2023, Oct 2022, Sep 2021 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d LC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positive | 10/30/2024 | 02/13/2026 | 324d | +3.76% |
| Neutral | 02/17/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 19d | +8.71% |
| Positive | 03/16/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 160d | +8.43% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS monthly commercial cattle slaughter by category (STEERS, HEIFERS, COWS, BULLS), computes the STEERS share of total slaughter, z-scores on a 1,260-day (five-year) rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly USDA release.
Why it matters
Why slaughter mix reads herd-cycle phase
USDA NASS tracks monthly commercial cattle slaughter by category: STEERS (finished feedlot bulls castrated at young age), HEIFERS (young females), COWS (mature breeding females), and BULLS (mature males). The composition of slaughter reveals which phase of the cattle cycle is active. During herd contraction, steers dominate as the industry finishes feedlot cattle without culling breeding stock. During liquidation, cows and heifers spike as producers reduce the breeding herd. The mix tells you WHICH cycle phase is active — distinct from slaughter volume (how fast cattle are moving).
Why Grade B with directional phase stats
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.095 at p-value < 1.0e-19 across 9,049 observations -- significant. Non-overlapping independence test at p-value 0.41 is not significant. Phase +1 (High Steer Share) delivers +1.33 pp above baseline, Phase -1 (Low Steer Share) delivers -0.94 pp below baseline. Clean directional edge both tails. Grade B herd-composition signal.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin primary driver), FC-LC spread (replacement-cost), cattle inventory (structural supply), slaughter YoY (realized flow volume). Slaughter mix is a focused herd-phase composition signal distinct from slaughter volume — composition answers WHICH phase is active; volume answers HOW FAST supply is moving.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 11:08 AM ET