SOYBEAN OIL SPECIALIST · Oilseed / Crush Capacity
Z7918 – [BO] US Crush Pace vs 22 Mt/yr Capacity
US soybean crush pace approaching the historical 22 Mt/yr capacity ceiling tightens BO and soybean meal byproduct availability.
At a glance
Current composite
-0.215
On the plus-or-minus one scale; US crush pace vs 22 Mt/yr ceiling.
Signal state
Moderate NEG
Current state across the Below Ceiling / Normal / At Capacity Ceiling regime.
Phase duration
9 sessions
Consecutive trading days in the current phase.
Sample
37 years
Monthly US soybean crush, 1989 onward.
As of Nov 03, 2026. Updated nightly.
LIVE CHART
Z7918 – [BO] US Crush Pace vs 22 Mt/yr Capacity reading, trailing window
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the US crush-vs-22-Mt-ceiling composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale — positive means crush pace approaching the historical capacity ceiling, negative means well below. The bronze line in the middle panel is the CBOT Soybean Oil front-month in cents per pound. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling information coefficient between the composite and BO 60-day forward returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.2 moderate and plus-or-minus 0.5 extreme thresholds.
COMPOSITE
-0.215 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-0.25
SAMPLE N
9,000+ days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite -0.215, state Moderate NEG, 9 trading days running in the current phase. Per-state baselines in the regime table below.
THE CAPACITY CEILING MECHANISM
US soybean crush capacity has grown from roughly 15 Mt/yr in the 1990s to over 25 Mt/yr by the mid-2020s, but at any given point there is a prevailing physical ceiling set by installed plant capacity + maintenance scheduling + feedstock availability. When monthly crush rates approach that ceiling, byproduct (BO + SM) supply tightens because crushers cannot easily add more volume.
HOW TO POSITION
Rare-signal threshold detector; most history sits well below ceiling, and the at-ceiling regime is infrequent. Use as a tail-event overlay rather than daily context. Pair with the Renewable Diesel Economic Pull and Renewable Diesel Input signals for the BO demand-channel context.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.215. Signal state is Moderate NEG, 9 trading days running. See the regime table below for per-state baselines.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.215 State Moderate NEG, 9 trading days running in the current phase.
- US soybean crush vs 22 Mt/yr capacity ceiling Monthly US crush rate referenced against the historical 22 million tonne per year physical ceiling.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CRUSH CALL
Composite -0.215, state Moderate NEG, 9 trading days running. Current direction and per-state baselines are in the regime table below.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
The signal is heavily imbalanced in the regime table — most history sits in Below Ceiling territory. The At Capacity Ceiling regime is rare and empirically runs below baseline, suggesting mean-reversion as crush rates back off from the physical limit.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
The 22 Mt/yr threshold is a historical reference; current installed capacity has grown materially with new biofuel-driven plants (Ag Processing, Bunge Louis Dreyfus Destrehan, LDC Decatur). Signal threshold interpretation should be adjusted for the evolving capacity picture.
THE REGIME MAP
The three capacity-ceiling regime states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from the live window on CBOT Soybean Oil forward returns. Heavily imbalanced distribution; the at-ceiling regime is rare.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At Capacity Ceiling | +1 | 2.4% (224 d) | -0.27% | -1.54pp | Oct 2026, Mar 2026, May 2024 | |
| Normal Crush TODAY | 0 | 10.5% (972 d) | +0.03% | -1.24pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Below Ceiling | -1 | 87.1% (8102 d) | +1.46% | +0.19pp | Jul 2026, May 2026, May 2026 |
The historical pattern
The signal across three decades of US crush capacity evolution
What this measures
US soybean crush rates approaching the historical 22 million tonne per year capacity ceiling signal tight BO and soybean meal byproduct availability — crushers cannot easily add volume when they are near full-plant utilization. The composite reads the crush pace relative to the capacity threshold, z-scored on a rolling window, tanh-bounded. The signal is heavily imbalanced — most history sits well below capacity; the at-ceiling regime is rare.
Why it matters
Why US crush capacity reads BO supply
US soybean crush produces two byproducts: soybean oil (BO) and soybean meal (SM). When crush pace approaches installed plant capacity, byproduct availability tightens because crushers cannot easily add more volume without new plants coming online. BO becomes the scarcer byproduct relative to SM in this condition because biofuel demand has pulled BO out of the food, feed, and industrial channels.
Why the signal is heavily imbalanced
US crush capacity has grown materially over the signal’s 37-year history, from roughly 15 Mt/yr in the 1990s to over 25 Mt/yr by the mid-2020s. The 22 Mt/yr reference threshold used in this signal is a historical capacity level; most of the live window sits well below that ceiling. The At Capacity regime is rare, which explains the heavy imbalance in the regime table.
How to use this signal today
Rare-signal threshold detector; the at-capacity regime empirically runs modestly below baseline, suggesting mean-reversion rather than fresh bullish pricing when the ceiling is reached. Use as a tail-event overlay alongside the Renewable Diesel Economic Pull and Renewable Diesel Input signals for the BO demand-channel context.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and refer to the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 04, 2026 09:47 PM ET