· Analytic
LH 4-Year Hog Cycle Phase Signal
A 4-year sinusoid fitted to detrended lean hog log-prices, read as the current cycle-phase position against CME Lean Hogs forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.042
Mid Cycle band, 11 trading days running
Signal state
Normal
phase 0, cycle neither early nor late
36-year sample
8,989 observable fwd60d days
1990-2026 daily
Historical IC
+0.1663
Spearman vs LH fwd60d, p = 1e-57 (among LH library strongest)
Baseline LH fwd60d
+1.59%
Unconditional mean
Early Cycle fwd60d
+5.52%
+3.92 pp above baseline, clean monotonic reader
Days since last event
370
Last event: May 16, 2025
Nearest threshold
-0.16
To cross into Mid Cycle
Typical run length
83 days
Based on 21 historical Normal runs; 25-75 pct range: 38-116 days
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The US hog cycle runs roughly four years from trough to trough. The mechanism is biological. A sow bred today farrows in four months, those piglets wean at three weeks, grow out through nursery and finishing, reach market weight at ten months total. Producer breeding-expansion decisions lag by another year on margin assessment, and the full response, from margin shock to supply response to price reversal, plays out over roughly four years. Classic hog cycle literature has documented this period since the 1950s. This signal fits a four-year sinusoid to detrended lean hog log-prices on a rolling five-year window, computes the current implied cycle-phase position where minus one is cycle trough and plus one is cycle peak, flips the sign so early-cycle (post-trough expansion) prints positive, and bounds the result with tanh to plus or minus one. In March 2006 the signal pinned at plus 0.50 in the early-cycle tail as the 2004-05 trough gave way to the recovery; lean hog futures rallied 27 percent over the next sixty days. In April 2020 another early-cycle reading at plus 0.51 preceded a 23 percent rally as the post-COVID cycle-trough rebuild began. In August 2008 the signal fired late-cycle at minus 0.50 as overproduction compounded with the financial crisis; lean hog futures crashed 29 percent over the next sixty days. The memorable twist: this is a RARE clean monotonic signal in the Lean Hogs library. The 36-year Spearman IC is plus 0.166 at p = 1e-57, one of the strongest ICs in the entire library. State-conditional returns move monotonically from Early-Cycle (plus 3.92 pp above baseline) through Mid-Cycle to Late-Cycle (minus 4.34 pp below baseline), with moderate bands sitting cleanly on the line. No bimodality, no engine-inversion flag, no mean-median asymmetry. Read on for the four-case history, the current mid-cycle reading, and why this structural cycle anchor should be the first chart you check before sizing any Lean Hogs position.
LIVE CHART
LH 4-Year Hog Cycle Phase Signal
Composite reads -0.128 as of October 30, 2026, in the Mid Cycle band, 11 trading days running since October 16, 2026. The four-year sinusoid fit places lean hogs near the mid-cycle neutral zone, slightly on the falling side of the wave. Historical state-conditional edge for Mid Cycle is -0.29 pp below the +1.59% baseline, essentially baseline. The signal pays off at the saturated tails (Early Cycle +3.92 pp above, Late Cycle -4.34 pp below), not in the middle.
COMPOSITE
-0.042 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
+7.84% (baseline +1.58%)
SAMPLE N
9,053 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Mid Cycle, 11 trading days running since mid-October 2026. State-conditional fwd60d LH is +1.31%, -0.29 pp vs the +1.59% baseline, mid-cycle has no cycle-phase edge. Wait for a tail.
CLEAN MONOTONIC PATTERN
Unlike most LH signals, this one has NO engine-inversion flag, NO bimodal state pattern, NO mean-median asymmetry. Early Cycle +3.92 pp above baseline → Late Cycle -4.34 pp below. Moderate bands sit cleanly on the monotonic line.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as the structural cycle anchor to check FIRST before sizing any LH position. Early Cycle readings (above +0.5) are historically the strongest LH tails on this entire signal library. Late Cycle (below -0.5) is the clean cycle-top short signal.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.128 in the Mid Cycle band, 11 trading days running since October 16, 2026. The blue signal line has drifted into mid-cycle territory from a brief Moderate NEG touch earlier in Q4. CME lean hogs (orange) have traded range-bound in the $56-$62 zone. The engine state-conditional edge for Mid Cycle is -0.29 pp below the +1.59% baseline, essentially no cycle-phase edge. The rolling IC pane shows strongly positive long-run Spearman (reflecting the +0.166 full-sample IC), the signal is working, just in the no-signal middle band right now.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.128 State Mid Cycle; 11 trading days running since October 16, 2026 phase entry.
- Raw z-score -0.11 Z-score of residual position against the fitted 4-year sinusoid, on a 5-year rolling window with 252-day minimum, sign-flipped so early-cycle prints positive, tanh-bounded.
- State-conditional edge: -0.29 pp (near zero) Mid Cycle historical fwd60d LH mean +1.31%, baseline +1.59% (edge -0.29 pp, essentially baseline). The signal pays off at tails: Early Cycle +3.92 pp above baseline, Late Cycle -4.34 pp below. 22.6% of sample sits in Mid Cycle; wait for a tail.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CYCLE-PHASE CALL
Composite -0.128, Mid Cycle band. The sinusoidal fit places current lean hog prices neither early- nor late-cycle; the residual position is modestly on the falling side of the four-year wave.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Mid Cycle historically delivers fwd 60-day LH of +1.31%, -0.29 pp below the +1.59% baseline, essentially baseline. 22.6% of the sample sits in this band. The signal pays off at the saturated tails, not here.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Four-year cycle fits can be disrupted by shock regimes (2014 PEDv, 2020 COVID, 2018 ASF) where the biological cycle gets forced off its clock. During shock regimes the signal reads a cycle phase that may not translate to the usual forward returns. Pair with breeding inventory and carcass weight for the full supply read.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,989 trading days with observable LH fwd60d. Baseline LH fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.59 percent mean, 10.9 percent standard deviation, 49.5 percent negative. The cleanest monotonic pattern in the Lean Hogs signal library.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Cycle | +1 | 36.9% (3058 d) | +6.10% | +4.36pp | Apr 2023, Mar 2020, Apr 2015 | |
| Mid Cycle TODAY | 0 | 21.3% (1768 d) | +3.03% | +1.29pp | Oct 2026, Nov 2024, Dec 2022 | |
| Late Cycle | -1 | 41.8% (3471 d) | -2.82% | -4.55pp | May 2025, Apr 2021, Dec 2019 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
3 state transitions from 11/11/2024 to 11/05/2026. Full history (41 total transitions since 11/29/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d LH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/11/2024 | 05/15/2025 | 128d | +0.34% |
| Defensive | 05/16/2025 | 10/15/2026 | 356d | +8.53% |
| Neutral LIVE | 10/16/2026 | current | 15d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LH is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal fits a four-year sinusoid (period = 1,008 trading days) to detrended lean hog log-prices on a rolling five-year (1,260 trading day) window with a 252-day minimum sample. The current implied cycle-phase position is computed as the current residual against the fitted sinusoid; the result is sign-flipped so that early-cycle (post-trough expansion) prints positive and late-cycle (overproduction peak) prints negative, then bounded with tanh to plus or minus one. The state machine applies thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme).
Why it matters
Why the four-year hog cycle is biological, not accidental
The US hog cycle length is set by biological time constants, not market convention. A sow bred today farrows in four months. Those piglets wean at three weeks, grow out through nursery and finishing, reach market weight at approximately ten months total. Producer breeding-expansion decisions lag another year on margin assessment; the full response, margin shock, breeding response, supply response, price reversal, plays out over approximately four years. Classic hog cycle literature has documented this period since the 1950s. The signal fits a sinusoid of exactly that period to detrended log-prices and reads the current phase position. The empirical IC of +0.166 at p = 1e-57 across 36 years confirms the biological periodicity is real, not statistical artifact.
Why this is the cleanest monotonic signal in the Lean Hogs library
Most LH signals in this library have quirks: engine-inversion flags that mean readers must flip the polarity, bimodal state patterns where both extremes are bullish, mean-median asymmetries where typical fwd60d is far smaller than the mean, or shock-regime mis-fires. This signal has NONE of those. The state-conditional pattern is cleanly monotonic: Early Cycle +3.92 pp, Moderate POS +6.12 pp, Mid Cycle -0.29 pp, Moderate NEG -2.13 pp, Late Cycle -4.34 pp. The tails deliver, the middle rests, and the sign of the composite reads correctly in the engine as-published direction with no need for reader inversion.
How to use this signal today
Treat as the structural cycle anchor to check FIRST before sizing any Lean Hogs position. The current Mid Cycle reading is a wait signal, not a trade trigger. Watch for a move into Early Cycle (above +0.5) which historically delivers the +3.92 pp above-baseline edge, or into Late Cycle (below -0.5) for the -4.34 pp bearish edge. The signal updates daily and the tails are historically rare (10-30% of sample time), so patience is appropriate. Pair with breeding inventory for the ten-month supply picture and the cutout signals for near-term demand regime confirmation.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The research brief walks through 36 years of the four-year hog cycle vs CME Lean Hogs forward returns, documents the biological mechanism (farrow-to-finish lead time plus producer breeding-expansion decision lag), and shows why this is the cleanest monotonic signal in the Lean Hogs library, no engine inversion, no bimodality, no mid-band disorder.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 03:41 PM ET