KC SPECIALIST · Softs / Weather Teleconnection
Z6522 – [KC] ENSO Dipole NINO3-NINO4 Signal
NINO3 minus NINO4 SST anomaly z-score as an ENSO geographic structure lens on Arabica forward 60-day returns.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.889
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
NOAA CPC weekly ENSO update drives signal refresh; typical 2-3 day latency.
Signal state
Modoki CP-warm
130 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
NOAA CPC weekly ENSO update
Sample
36-year window
Weekly cadence; 1990 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The ENSO dipole captures the geographic structure of El Nino. When NINO3 (east Pacific) is warmer than NINO4 (central Pacific), the regime is canonical EP-warm El Nino; when NINO4 dominates, the regime is Modoki or central Pacific El Nino. The two regimes have very different Brazilian rainfall and coffee teleconnections. Empirically canonical EP-warm regimes precede Arabica strength at 60-day horizons while Modoki regimes precede Arabica weakness. Daily Spearman IC against Arabica forward 60-day returns is plus 0.123 at p-value 1.4e-31 across 8,947 observations, strongly significant on a 36-year sample. Phase plus 1 (EP-warm canonical) firings deliver plus 3.44 pp above plus 2.32 percent baseline. Phase minus 1 (Modoki CP-warm) firings deliver minus 4.06 pp. 7.50 pp directional spread.
LIVE CHART
KC ENSO Dipole NINO3-NINO4 Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the NINO3 minus NINO4 SST anomaly series from NOAA Climate Prediction Center, z-scored and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means canonical EP-warm El Nino regime with NINO3 dominating; negative composite means Modoki or central Pacific warming regime with NINO4 dominating. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Coffee C first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Arabica forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
-0.889 / tanh
STATE
Modoki CP-warm
PHASE
-1.42
PHASE +1 EDGE
+3.44 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-4.06 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Modoki CP-warm firing at composite -0.889, 130 trading days running in STRESS phase. Phase +1 (EP Canonical) delivers plus 5.76 percent fwd60d / plus 3.44 pp above plus 2.32 percent baseline. Phase -1 (Modoki) delivers minus 1.75 percent / minus 4.06 pp below baseline. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.123 at p-value 1.4e-31 strongly significant.
THE TELECONNECTION MECHANISM
The geographic structure of El Nino matters more than the magnitude. Canonical EP-warm El Nino drives one rainfall pattern over SE Brazil, Colombia, and Central America; Modoki CP-warm drives a very different pattern. The dipole discriminates between regimes that are typically lumped as "El Nino" by single-index measures and empirically delivers a strongly monotone pattern on Arabica forward 60-day returns.
HOW TO POSITION
Directional regime lens for Arabica. EP Canonical firings flag bullish regimes with Arabica strength following at 60-day horizon. Modoki CP-warm firings flag bearish regimes. Orthogonal to ONI magnitude; pair with the ENSO dry season weight signal for stacked ENSO conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.889 in the Modoki CP-warm band. The ENSO dipole has run deeply negative through 2026 with NINO4 warming dominating NINO3 and Arabica forward 60-day returns historically run below baseline in this regime.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.889 State Modoki CP-warm, 130 days running in STRESS phase.
- NINO3 minus NINO4 deeply negative Raw z-score minus 1.42; NINO4 SST anomaly has dominated NINO3 through 2026 consistent with Modoki-leaning regime.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap borderline Daily Spearman IC plus 0.123 at p-value 1.4e-31 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC plus 0.143 at p-value 0.08 borderline significant on 150 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE REGIME CALL
Composite -0.889, Modoki CP-warm. The ENSO dipole has run deeply negative through 2026 with NINO4 warming dominating NINO3. Signal firing in Modoki bucket for 130 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase -1 historically runs minus 4.06 pp below baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.123 at p-value 1.4e-31 strongly significant on 36-year sample. Phase +1 (EP Canonical) delivers plus 3.44 pp above baseline; Phase -1 (Modoki) delivers minus 4.06 pp. 7.50 pp directional spread is among the widest in the KC library.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.143 at p-value 0.08 borderline significant on 150 samples. Teleconnection pathways can shift with climate-regime drift; recent Modoki regimes have been more frequent than historical average.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,947 post-warmup trading days (1990 onward). Baseline Arabica fwd60d mean plus 2.32 percent median minus 0.96 percent. Phase +1 (EP Canonical) delivers +3.44 pp edge; Phase -1 (Modoki) delivers -4.06 pp. 7.50 pp directional spread with daily IC plus 0.123 strongly significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP Canonical | +1 | 42.4% (3795 d) | +5.76% | +3.44pp | 2023, 2015-16, 2009-10, 1997-98 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 26.9% (2408 d) | +1.52% | -0.80pp | various | |
| Modoki CP-warm TODAY | -1 | 30.7% (2744 d) | -1.75% | -4.06pp | 2026 (current), 2020-21, 2014, 2004 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of the NINO3 SST anomaly minus NINO4 SST anomaly series from NOAA Climate Prediction Center, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals canonical EP-warm El Nino regime; negative composite equals Modoki or central Pacific warming regime. Target ICE US Coffee C first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why ENSO geographic structure matters
El Nino is not one thing. Canonical EP-warm events center their SST anomaly in the eastern Pacific and drive one set of global teleconnections; Modoki or CP-warm events center their anomaly in the central Pacific and drive a very different set. Brazilian coffee is sensitive to the geographic structure because the Pacific-to-South-America teleconnection pattern shifts when the warming center shifts. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.123 at p-value 1.4e-31 confirms the dipole carries structural information beyond what ONI magnitude alone captures.
How to use this signal today
Directional regime lens for Arabica. EP Canonical firings flag bullish regimes with Arabica strength following at 60-day horizon; Modoki CP-warm firings flag bearish regimes. Orthogonal to ONI magnitude and dry-season weight signals. Pair with the ENSO dry season weight signal for stacked ENSO conviction and with Brazil CHIRPS rainfall for short-lead confirmation.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant but non-overlap test (150 independent 60-day samples) plus 0.143 at p-value 0.08 borderline significant. Teleconnection pathways can shift with climate-regime drift; recent Modoki regimes have been more frequent than the historical average. Treat as directional regime overlay not a timing trigger.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 10:00 PM ET