SOYBEAN COMPLEX SPECIALIST · Oilseed / Logistics
Z100347 – [SM / BO] Cass Freight Logistics
The Cass Freight Index reads US trucking volumes and expenditures; elevated freight stress historically precedes modestly bearish soy-complex forward returns.
At a glance
Current composite
-0.000
On the plus-or-minus one scale; Cass Freight Index z-score.
Signal state
Neutral
Current state across the Freight Easy / Normal / Freight Stress High regime.
Phase duration
45 sessions
Consecutive trading days in the current phase.
Sample
16 years
Monthly Cass Freight Index, 2009 onward.
As of Nov 02, 2026. Updated nightly.
LIVE CHART
Z100347 – [SM / BO] Cass Freight Logistics reading, trailing window
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the Cass Freight Index composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale — positive means elevated freight stress (high shipment cost, tight capacity), negative means easy freight conditions. The bronze line in the middle panel is the CBOT Soybean Meal front-month in dollars per short ton. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling information coefficient between the composite and SM 60-day forward returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.2 moderate and plus-or-minus 0.5 extreme thresholds.
COMPOSITE
-0.000 / tanh
STATE
Neutral
PHASE
-0.00
SAMPLE N
4,300+ days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NEUTRAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite -0.000, state Neutral, 45 trading days running in the current phase. Per-state baselines in the regime table below.
THE FREIGHT MECHANISM
The Cass Freight Index tracks US trucking shipment volume and expenditure. Elevated freight stress (high shipment cost, tight capacity) can reflect either supply-chain tightness or demand-weakness pricing surge. Empirically the high-stress regime coincides with modestly bearish soy-complex 60-day forward returns, suggesting the demand channel dominates.
HOW TO POSITION
Logistics overlay with weak directional edge. Use as macro context rather than standalone signal. Pair with the Renewable Diesel Pull signal (direct BO demand), the US Crush Capacity signal, and the Brazil Soyoil Production YoY signal for a comprehensive soy-complex supply-demand picture.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.000. Signal state is Neutral, 45 trading days running. See the regime table below for per-state baselines.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.000 State Neutral, 45 trading days running in the current phase.
- Cass Freight Index Monthly US trucking shipment volume and expenditure index, rolling z-score.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE FREIGHT CALL
Composite -0.000, state Neutral, 45 trading days running. Current direction and per-state baselines are in the regime table below.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Per-state forward returns show a weakly directional pattern in the regime table — Freight Stress High precedes modestly bearish soy-complex returns, Freight Easy precedes modestly bullish. The edge is not sharp; use as macro context.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Cass Freight Index is monthly with roughly a 3-week publication lag. The signal captures US domestic freight conditions; export-oriented soy-complex movements (Mississippi barge, Gulf port rail) are only partially captured.
THE REGIME MAP
The three freight regime states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from the live window on CBOT Soybean Meal forward returns. Weakly directional pattern; signal is best used as macro context.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freight Stress High | +1 | 36.9% (1594 d) | +1.07% | -0.31pp | Aug 2025, Jan 2023, May 2020 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 18.2% (786 d) | +1.52% | +0.13pp | Aug 2026, Mar 2026, Nov 2025 | |
| Freight Easy | -1 | 44.9% (1937 d) | +1.59% | +0.21pp | Apr 2026, Mar 2026, Oct 2021 |
The historical pattern
The signal across the Cass Freight Index era
What this measures
The Cass Freight Index tracks US trucking shipment volumes and expenditure trends. Elevated freight stress historically precedes modestly bearish 60-day CBOT soybean meal and soybean oil forward returns, likely through the demand-weakness transmission channel (recession risk, consumer pullback) rather than a supply-tightening mechanism. The composite reads the Cass Index z-scored on a rolling window, tanh-bounded. State thresholds plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).
Why it matters
Why Cass Freight reads soy-complex logistics
The Cass Freight Index is the authoritative monthly measure of US trucking shipment volumes and expenditures. US soybean meal and soybean oil distribute heavily through trucking (soymeal to feedlots, soyoil to food processors and biofuel plants). When freight stress is elevated, distribution costs rise and crusher pricing dynamics shift.
Why the empirical pattern is weakly bearish
Naive reasoning would say elevated freight stress tightens the physical soy-complex supply chain and firms futures. The data shows the opposite — high freight stress coincides with modestly bearish 60-day forward returns, likely because freight stress is a lagging indicator of demand-side weakness that eventually transmits to commodity pricing through recession risk and consumer pullback.
How to use this signal today
Macro logistics context rather than standalone soy-complex signal. Pair with direct demand-channel signals (Renewable Diesel Pull, Renewable Diesel Input) and global supply signals (Brazil Soyoil Production YoY, Indonesia Palm Oil Supply) for a comprehensive read.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and refer to the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 04, 2026 09:51 PM ET