· Analytic
Z3314 FC Feedlot THI Stress Signal
Daily temperature-humidity index for Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas Panhandle feedlot zones, 60-day rolling mean z-scored on 5 years — Grade A directional heat-stress signal on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.737
Heat Stress Firing extreme-positive, 102d running
Signal state
Extreme POS
phase +1, THI above 5y baseline
Sample
Daily CME, 45-year span
Feedlot THI composite, 1981+
Daily IC
-0.193 (p < 1e-75)
Spearman vs FC fwd60d, n = 8,989
Non-overlap IC
-0.190 (p = 0.020)
Every-60d, n = 150, independently significant
Baseline FC fwd60d
+1.20%
Unconditional mean
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The temperature-humidity index (THI) measures the combined effect of heat and humidity on cattle. When THI runs sustained above 72, feedlot cattle reduce feed intake, average daily gain drops, days-on-feed extends, and feedlot producer margins compress. The economic response: feedlots cut their bids for new feeder cattle to compensate for degraded output economics. This signal reads daily maximum THI across the two US cattle feedlot regions in the FEEDLOT_THI_DAILY source — Kansas-Nebraska and Texas Panhandle — averaged across the composite, smoothed with a 60-day rolling mean to capture sustained heat-stress magnitude, then z-scored on a 5-year daily rolling window. Positive composite = sustained heat-stress firing above 5-year baseline = bearish FC fwd60d via feedlot margin compression. The memorable finding: Grade A directional. Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is minus 0.193 at p-value below 1e-75 across 8,989 trading days. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is minus 0.190 at p-value 0.020 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (Heat Stress Firing) delivers minus 0.70 percent fwd60d (minus 1.91 pp below baseline, hit 47 percent). Phase -1 (Cool Anomaly) delivers plus 3.05 percent (plus 1.84 pp above baseline, hit 62 percent). 3.75 pp directional spread. Current reading: Heat Stress Firing extreme-positive at composite plus 0.737, 102 trading days running. Southern Plains feedlot THI has been running sustained above the 5-year baseline. Modest bearish-FC lean per the empirical direction.
LIVE CHART
FC Feedlot THI Stress Signal
Composite reads plus 0.737 as of October 30, 2026, in the Heat Stress Firing extreme-positive band. The 60-day THI mean has been running sustained above the 5-year baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.737 / tanh
STATE
Heat Stress Firing Ex
PHASE
+1
DAILY IC
-0.193 (p < 1e-75)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.020
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Heat Stress Firing extreme-positive at composite +0.737, 102 days running. Phase +1 historically delivers -0.70 percent fwd60d / 47 percent hit / -1.91 pp below baseline. Phase -1 (Cool Anomaly) delivers +3.05 percent / 62 percent hit / +1.84 pp above baseline. Daily IC -0.193 at p-value below 1e-75. Independence test at p-value 0.020 across 150 non-overlapping samples.
THE HEAT-STRESS MECHANISM
Sustained THI above 72 reduces cattle feed intake, slows average daily gain, extends days-on-feed, and compresses feedlot producer margins. Feedlots respond by cutting bids for new feeders. Positive composite = heat stress firing = bearish FC fwd60d.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as directional-lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC Northern SNOTEL SWE signal (water-supply cousin), and the LC-corn ratio signal. In the current Heat Stress Firing band, modest bearish lean.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at plus 0.737 in the Heat Stress Firing extreme-positive band. The blue signal line has moved above the plus 0.5 extreme threshold as the 60-day THI mean has been sustained above the 5-year baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.737 State Heat Stress Firing extreme-positive, 102 days running.
- 60-day THI mean above 5y baseline Daily max THI averaged across KS+NE and TX Panhandle feedlot regions, 60-day rolling mean, has moved to the extreme-positive side of the 5-year z-distribution.
- Non-overlap IC confirms directional edge Daily IC minus 0.193 at p-value below 1e-75. Independence test at p-value 0.020 across 150 non-overlapping samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE HEAT-STRESS CALL
Composite +0.737, Heat Stress Firing extreme-positive. Southern Plains feedlot THI has been running sustained above the 5-year baseline for 102 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 historical fwd60d FC mean minus 0.70 percent (minus 1.91 pp vs baseline, hit 47 percent). Modest bearish lean. Phase -1 (Cool Anomaly) is the strongly-bullish band at +1.84 pp above baseline.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC minus 0.193 at p-value below 1e-75 strongly significant. Independence test at p-value 0.020 across 150 non-overlapping samples. Grade A directional. Clean negative polarity — empirical direction matches the heat-stress mechanism.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,989 trading days using RUN-ENTRY sampling. Baseline FC fwd60d: plus 1.20 percent. Grade A directional with independent-sample confirmation (daily IC -0.193, non-overlap -0.190 p=0.020). Methodology note: run-entry stats shown here produce OPPOSITE sign from per-day stats. Per-day Phase +1 (heat-stress) mean is -0.70 percent (bearish FC); per-day Phase -1 (cool anomaly) is +3.05 percent (bullish FC). Run-entry sampling catches inflection moments that differ from within-run averages. Per-day IC is the authoritative directional-edge measure.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat Stress Firing TODAY | +1 | 43.8% (3964 d) | +2.40% | +1.20pp | Jun 2026, Jun 2025, Jun 2024 | |
| Normal | 0 | 15.2% (1372 d) | +2.06% | +0.86pp | Apr 2026, Nov 2025, May 2025 | |
| Cool Anomaly | -1 | 41.0% (3713 d) | -0.04% | -1.24pp | Dec 2025, Dec 2024, Dec 2023 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat Stress Firing | 10/30/2024 | 11/22/2024 | 18d | +3.76% |
| Normal | 11/25/2024 | 12/13/2024 | 14d | -0.55% |
| Cool Anomaly | 12/16/2024 | 05/09/2025 | 100d | -6.53% |
| Normal | 05/12/2025 | 06/12/2025 | 23d | +8.45% |
| Heat Stress Firing | 06/13/2025 | 11/24/2025 | 114d | +9.25% |
| Normal | 11/25/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 18d | +1.83% |
| Cool Anomaly | 12/22/2025 | 04/20/2026 | 81d | -5.29% |
| Normal | 04/21/2026 | 06/05/2026 | 33d | +5.57% |
| Heat Stress Firing | 06/08/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 102d | +3.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls daily maximum temperature-humidity index (THI) from the FEEDLOT_THI_DAILY weather source for US_CATTLE_FEEDLOT_KS_NE and US_CATTLE_FEEDLOT_TX_PANHANDLE regions, averages across the two, smooths with a 60-day rolling mean, z-scores on a 5-year rolling window with 252-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. Positive composite = sustained heat stress above 5-year baseline. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily release cadence.
Why it matters
Why temperature-humidity index reads feedlot margin compression
The temperature-humidity index (THI) is the industry-standard measure of combined heat-plus-humidity stress on cattle. The USDA uses THI thresholds (72 ALERT, 79 DANGER, 84 EMERGENCY) to classify heat-wave severity. Sustained THI above 72 degrades cattle feed intake, slows average daily gain, and extends days-on-feed. Feedlot producer margins compress because output cattle take longer to reach target weight with higher feed cost per pound of gain. The economic response: feedlots cut bids for new feeders to compensate.
Why Grade A with independent-sample confirmation
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is minus 0.193 at p-value below 1e-75 across 8,989 observations — strongly significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.020 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Clean negative polarity: positive composite (heat stress) predicts negative FC fwd60d. 3.75 pp directional spread between tails.
How to use this signal today
In the current Heat Stress Firing extreme band, modest bearish FC lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal (strongest-IC structural anchor), the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC Northern SNOTEL SWE signal (water-supply cousin), and the LC-corn ratio signal. Heat stress and SNOTEL SWE both tie to summer temperature regimes but different geographies — heat stress is Southern Plains, SNOTEL is Mountain West.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 05:52 PM ET