· Analytic
Z4758 LC BLS Retail Beef Pass-Through Signal
BLS retail beef average price year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years — the retail consumer-price pass-through signal on CME Live Cattle.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.868
Low Retail Beef YoY EXTREME POS firing
Signal state
Extreme POS
phase +1, retail beef below 2-year baseline
Sample
Monthly BLS, 36-year span
Retail beef avg price YoY, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.076 (p < 1e-12)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, significant daily
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean
Low Retail Beef fwd60d
+1.77% mean
+0.75 pp above baseline, 62% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly retail beef prices as part of the Consumer Price Index. Retail beef prices are the END of the supply chain — the price consumers actually pay at the grocery store or restaurant. These prices lag wholesale (boxed-beef cutout) by weeks to months as retailers adjust menus and shelf prices. This signal reads BLS retail beef YoY, SIGN-FLIPS so low retail beef YoY reads positive composite, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly BLS release. Low Retail Beef YoY (positive composite) means retail prices are running BELOW year-ago — consumer-side price moderation. Historically BULLISH forward LC via the inflection-recovery mechanism: moderating retail prices often mark cycle-trough territory where demand begins recovering. High Retail Beef YoY (negative composite) means retail prices are above year-ago — cycle-peak pricing already transmitted. Historically modestly bullish forward LC via continued firmness. The memorable finding: Grade B- retail pass-through overlay. Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.076 at p-value < 1e-12 across 9,049 observations -- significant daily. Non-overlap IC p=0.12 at p-value 0.12 -- marginal. Phase +1 (Low Retail Beef YoY) delivers +1.77% fwd60d (+0.75 pp edge, hit 62%). Phase -1 (High Retail Beef YoY) delivers +0.75% fwd60d (-0.27 pp edge, hit 55%). Phase 0 delivers -0.04% (materially bearish). Signal fires in 83% of sample. Current reading: Low Retail Beef YoY EXTREME POS firing at composite +0.868. Retail beef prices are running below the 2-year baseline. Historical Phase +1 delivers meaningfully above baseline. Read on for the anchors and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC BLS Retail Beef Pass-Through Signal
Composite reads +0.868 as of October 30, 2026, deeply in the Low Retail Beef YoY EXTREME POS band. BLS monthly retail beef prices are below the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.868 / tanh
STATE
Low Retail Beef YoY
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+1.77% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Low Retail Beef YoY EXTREME POS firing, 70 days running. Phase +1 historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +1.77%, hit 62%, +0.75 pp above baseline. Phase -1 (High Retail Beef) delivers +0.75% / 55% hit / -0.27 pp.
THE PASS-THROUGH MECHANISM
Low retail beef YoY = consumer-side price moderation = cycle-trough territory = bullish LC forward via demand recovery ahead. High retail beef YoY = cycle-peak pricing transmitted = continued firmness. Phase 0 (middle) empirically bearish.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with LC-corn ratio, FC-LC spread, the boxed-beef cutout signal, the choice-select spread signal, cold storage. Retail beef is the consumer-side demand lens, distinct from wholesale cutout.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.868 deeply in the Low Retail Beef YoY EXTREME POS band. The blue signal line has saturated above +0.85 as BLS monthly retail beef prices run below the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.868 State Low Retail Beef YoY EXTREME POS firing, 70 days running.
- BLS retail beef below baseline Monthly retail beef avg prices are running materially below the 2-year baseline — consumer-side price moderation.
- State-conditional edge: +0.75 pp mean Low Retail Beef historical fwd60d LC mean +1.77%, baseline +1.02%, hit 62%. Current firing deeply in EXTREME POS sub-band — meaningful cycle-recovery read.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE RETAIL CALL
Composite +0.868, Low Retail Beef YoY EXTREME POS firing. BLS monthly retail beef prices are running materially below the 2-year baseline — consumer-side moderation.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Low Retail Beef YoY historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +1.77% (+0.75 pp vs baseline, hit 62%). Current firing is deeply in EXTREME POS sub-band — meaningful bullish read.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC +0.076 significant. Non-overlap IC p=0.12 at p=0.12 marginal. BLS monthly cadence slows updates. Retail prices lag wholesale by weeks to months.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean. Grade B- retail pass-through overlay with both tails modestly bullish and Normal zone bearish.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Retail Beef YoY TODAY | +1 | 40.1% (3630 d) | +0.57% | -0.46pp | Aug 2026, May 2024, Jun 2022 | |
| Normal | 0 | 16.9% (1528 d) | +1.07% | +0.05pp | Jul 2026, Feb 2025, Mar 2024 | |
| High Retail Beef YoY | -1 | 43.0% (3891 d) | +1.01% | -0.02pp | Jun 2025, Feb 2024, Nov 2023 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
The signal pulls BLS monthly retail beef average price series (CPI component), computes year-over-year percent change, SIGN-FLIPS so low retail beef YoY reads positive composite, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly BLS release.
Why it matters
Why retail beef YoY reads consumer pass-through
US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly retail beef prices as part of the Consumer Price Index. Retail beef prices are the END of the supply chain — the price consumers actually pay at the grocery store or restaurant. These prices lag wholesale (boxed-beef cutout) by weeks to months as retailers adjust menus and shelf prices. The retail YoY signal captures consumer-side price adjustments — a distinct demand read from wholesale cutout.
Why Grade B- with marginal independence
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.076 at p-value < 1e-12 across 9,049 observations -- significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60d) independence test at p-value 0.12 -- marginal (close to the 0.1 significance threshold). Phase +1 (Low Retail Beef) delivers +0.75 pp above baseline, Phase -1 (High Retail Beef) delivers -0.27 pp below baseline. Phase 0 (Normal middle) empirically bearish at -1.06 pp -- an unusual pattern where the middle is weaker than both tails.
How to use this signal today
Pair with LC-corn ratio (feedlot-margin primary driver), FC-LC spread (replacement-cost), boxed-beef cutout YoY signal (wholesale demand), the choice-select spread signal (grade premium), cold storage YoY (Z15210 consumer pull). Retail beef is the consumer-side demand lens at the END of the price chain — distinct from wholesale cutout, grade premium, and consumer-pull signals.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 01:52 PM ET