KC SPECIALIST · Softs / Global Price Benchmark
Z85672 – [KC] ICO ICIP Composite Price YoY Signal
Global composite coffee price year-over-year change leads Arabica forward 60-day returns via the global price benchmark channel; the ICO ICIP YoY z-score captures the regime.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.829
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
ICO Coffee Marketing Report monthly release drives signal refresh.
Signal state
Global Falling
276 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
ICO monthly release
Sample
11-year window
Monthly cadence; 2015 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The International Coffee Organization publishes the International Coffee Indicator Price (ICIP) as the official global composite coffee price benchmark. The ICIP is a weighted average of the four major coffee-type indicators (Colombian Milds, Other Milds, Brazilian Naturals, Robustas) and serves as the single most-watched global reference price for coffee. When the ICIP runs above prior-year levels the global coffee complex is in a rising-price regime and Arabica strength historically follows at 60-day horizons. When it runs below prior year, global weakness follows. Daily Spearman IC against Arabica forward 60-day returns is plus 0.305 at p-value 2.9e-61 across 2,795 observations, strongly significant and one of the highest in the KC library. Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.295 at p-value 0.04 INDEPENDENTLY significant on 47 samples. Phase plus 1 firings deliver plus 6.65 pp above the plus 3.04 percent baseline. Phase minus 1 firings deliver minus 4.28 pp. 10.93 pp directional spread.
LIVE CHART
KC ICO ICIP Composite Price YoY Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the ICO International Coffee Indicator Price monthly year-over-year percent change z-scored on a rolling window and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means the global coffee complex is in a rising-price regime relative to prior year; negative composite means a falling-price regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Coffee C first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Arabica forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
-0.829 / tanh
STATE
Global Falling
PHASE
-1.19
PHASE +1 EDGE
+6.65 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-4.28 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Global Falling firing at composite -0.829, 276 trading days running in STRESS phase. Phase +1 (Global Rising) delivers plus 9.69 percent fwd60d / plus 6.65 pp above plus 3.04 percent baseline. Phase -1 (Global Falling) delivers minus 1.24 percent / minus 4.28 pp below baseline. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.305 at p-value 2.9e-61 strongly significant.
THE GLOBAL BENCHMARK MECHANISM
ICO ICIP is the global composite coffee price benchmark covering all four major coffee-type indicators. When the global complex is in a rising-price regime (Phase +1), Arabica benefits from the macro commodity momentum, speculator inflow, and cross-coffee demand rotation. When the complex is in a falling regime, the same forces reverse and Arabica weakness follows.
HOW TO POSITION
Directional global benchmark overlay for Arabica. Global Rising firings flag bullish regimes with Arabica strength following at 60-day horizon. Global Falling firings flag bearish regimes. Pair with USDA PSD, ENSO dipole, and CFTC positioning for stacked global-plus-fundamental conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.829 in the Global Falling band. ICO ICIP monthly year-over-year has run deeply below prior year through 2026 and Arabica forward 60-day returns historically run below baseline in this regime.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.829 State Global Falling, 276 days running in STRESS phase.
- ICO ICIP YoY deeply negative Raw z-score -1.19; ICO ICIP monthly YoY has run meaningfully below prior-year levels through 2026 consistent with Global Falling regime.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap independently significant Daily Spearman IC plus 0.305 at p-value 2.9e-61 strongly significant. Non-overlap IC plus 0.295 at p-value 0.04 independently significant on 47 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE GLOBAL CALL
Composite -0.829, Global Falling. ICO ICIP monthly year-over-year has run deeply below prior year through 2026 consistent with global coffee complex in falling-price regime. Signal firing in Global Falling bucket for 276 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase -1 historically runs minus 4.28 pp below baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.305 at p-value 2.9e-61 strongly significant on 11-year sample. Non-overlap IC plus 0.295 at p-value 0.04 INDEPENDENTLY significant on 47 samples. Phase +1 delivers plus 6.65 pp above baseline; Phase -1 delivers minus 4.28 pp. 10.93 pp directional spread is among the widest in the KC library.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Short 11-year sample (2015 onward) is shorter than most KC signals. The signal is a near-identity relationship with Arabica (ICIP is a weighted composite that includes Arabica benchmarks); high IC partially reflects construction overlap not pure external leading-indicator value. Pair with independent supply and positioning signals for full conviction.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 2,795 post-warmup trading days (2015 onward). Baseline Arabica fwd60d mean plus 3.04 percent. Phase +1 (Global Rising) delivers +6.65 pp edge; Phase -1 (Global Falling) delivers -4.28 pp. 10.93 pp directional spread with daily IC plus 0.305 strongly significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Rising | +1 | 32.2% (901 d) | +9.69% | +6.65pp | 2021-22, 2016-17 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 17.2% (481 d) | +3.16% | +0.12pp | various | |
| Global Falling TODAY | -1 | 50.6% (1413 d) | -1.24% | -4.28pp | 2026 (current), 2018-19 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 11-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of ICO International Coffee Indicator Price monthly year-over-year percent change on a rolling window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals global ICO ICIP above prior-year levels (rising-price regime); negative composite equals below prior year (falling-price regime). Target ICE US Coffee C first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why the ICO ICIP matters for Arabica
ICO International Coffee Indicator Price is the global reference price for the entire coffee complex. The ICIP is a weighted composite of Colombian Milds, Other Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Robustas, covering all four major coffee-type indicators across global origins. When the composite runs above prior year the global complex is in a rising-price regime that supports Arabica strength via macro commodity momentum, speculator inflow, and cross-coffee demand rotation.
How to use this signal today
Directional global benchmark overlay for Arabica positioning. Global Rising firings flag bullish regimes where Arabica strength follows at 60-day horizon; Global Falling firings flag bearish regimes. Pair with USDA PSD (systemic supply), ENSO dipole (weather), CFTC positioning (speculator flow), and Cecafe realized price (short-lead transaction) for stacked conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC plus 0.305 strongly significant AND non-overlap IC plus 0.295 at p=0.04 independently significant, but the 11-year sample from 2015 onward is shorter than other KC signals. The signal is a near-identity relationship with Arabica (ICIP is a weighted composite that includes Arabica benchmarks); the high IC partially reflects construction overlap not pure external leading indicator value. Pair with independent supply and positioning signals.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 11:55 PM ET