KC SPECIALIST · Softs / Fire Pressure
Z6509 – [KC] Brazil Fire Pressure Signal
Brazilian coffee-region fire activity captures combined crop-loss and pollination-stress supply shocks that drive Arabica forward 60-day returns via the fire-pressure channel.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR AUG
Current reading
+0.708
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR AUG
Brazilian coffee-region fire pressure concentrates in the August-October dry season;…
Signal state
Fire Pressure High
75 days in Healthy phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
NASA FIRMS daily release
Sample
26-year window
Daily cadence; 2000 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW AUG-OCT BRAZIL DRY-SEASON FIRE PEAK
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Brazilian Cerrado and Sul-Minas coffee regions face recurring fire pressure during the dry-season months of August through October. Fire pressure drives Arabica supply shocks through three channels simultaneously. Direct crop loss as fires burn into coffee groves. Smoke obscures pollination during the flowering window and reduces yield. Aerosol stress on photosynthesis during the critical post- flowering berry-development window. The signal reads NASA FIRMS 30-day sum of fire radiative power across Cerrado and Sul-Minas detections, z-scores on a rolling window, and tanh-bounds. Daily Spearman IC against Arabica forward 60-day returns is plus 0.084 at p-value 1.8e-11 across 6,458 observations, strongly significant on the 26-year sample. Phase plus 1 firings deliver plus 1.65 pp above the plus 2.53 percent baseline. Phase minus 1 firings deliver minus 2.07 pp. 3.72 pp directional spread with clean monotone phase pattern.
LIVE CHART
KC Brazil Fire Pressure Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the 30-day sum of fire radiative power across Cerrado and Sul-Minas FIRMS detections, z-scored on a rolling window and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means elevated Brazilian coffee-region fire pressure (supply-shock setup); negative composite means low fire pressure (benign regime). The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Coffee C first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Arabica forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
+0.708 / tanh
STATE
Fire Pressure High
PHASE
+0.89
PHASE +1 EDGE
+1.65 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-2.07 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Fire Pressure High firing at composite +0.708, 75 trading days running in HEALTHY phase. Phase +1 (Fire Pressure High) delivers plus 4.18 percent fwd60d / plus 1.65 pp above plus 2.53 percent baseline. Phase -1 (Fire Pressure Low) delivers plus 0.47 percent / minus 2.07 pp below baseline. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.084 at p-value 1.8e-11 strongly significant.
THE FIRE-PRESSURE MECHANISM
Brazilian coffee regions face dry-season fire pressure through three simultaneous channels. Direct crop loss as fires burn into coffee groves. Smoke obscures pollination during the flowering window and reduces yield. Aerosol stress on photosynthesis during the critical post-flowering berry- development window. The compound effect makes fire pressure one of the most dangerous short-lead supply-shock pathways.
HOW TO POSITION
Directional fire-pressure overlay for Arabica. Fire Pressure High firings flag bullish supply- shock setups with Arabica strength following at 60-day horizon. Fire Pressure Low firings flag bearish benign regimes. Pair with CHIRPS Brazil rainfall, ENSO dipole, and USDA PSD Brazil Arabica for stacked supply conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.708 in the Fire Pressure High band. NASA FIRMS 30-day fire radiative power across Brazilian coffee regions has run well above the rolling norm through 2026 consistent with elevated fire-pressure supply-shock setup.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.708 State Fire Pressure High, 75 days running in HEALTHY phase.
- Brazil FIRMS 30-day fire radiative power elevated Raw z-score +0.89; NASA FIRMS detections across Cerrado and Sul-Minas regions have run well above the rolling norm through 2026 consistent with Phase +1 Fire Pressure High regime.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap borderline Daily Spearman IC plus 0.084 at p-value 1.8e-11 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC plus 0.103 at p-value 0.29 borderline significant on 108 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE FIRE CALL
Composite +0.708, Fire Pressure High. NASA FIRMS 30-day fire radiative power across Brazilian coffee regions has run well above the rolling norm through 2026. Signal firing in Fire Pressure High bucket for 75 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase +1 historically runs plus 1.65 pp above baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.084 at p-value 1.8e-11 strongly significant on 26-year FIRMS sample. Phase +1 (Fire Pressure High) delivers plus 1.65 pp above baseline; Phase -1 (Fire Pressure Low) delivers minus 2.07 pp. 3.72 pp directional spread with clean monotone phase pattern.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.103 at p-value 0.29 borderline significant on 108 samples. Fire pressure is heavily seasonal (August-October dry season); the composite ffills forward through wet season but short-horizon value concentrates in the dry season.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,458 post-warmup trading days (2000 onward). Baseline Arabica fwd60d mean plus 2.53 percent. Phase +1 (Fire Pressure High) delivers +1.65 pp edge; Phase -1 (Fire Pressure Low) delivers -2.07 pp. 3.72 pp directional spread with daily IC plus 0.084 strongly significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Pressure High TODAY | +1 | 47.1% (3042 d) | +4.18% | +1.65pp | 2026 (current), 2024, 2021-22, 2010 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 20.6% (1333 d) | +2.01% | -0.53pp | various | |
| Fire Pressure Low | -1 | 32.3% (2083 d) | +0.47% | -2.07pp | 2018-19, 2013 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of 30-day sum of fire radiative power across Cerrado and Sul-Minas FIRMS detections on a rolling window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals elevated Brazilian coffee-region fire pressure (supply-shock setup); negative composite equals low fire pressure (benign regime). Target ICE US Coffee C first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why Brazilian fire pressure matters
Brazilian Cerrado and Sul-Minas coffee regions face recurring fire pressure during the August- October dry season. Fire pressure drives Arabica supply shocks through three simultaneous channels. Direct crop loss as fires burn into coffee groves. Smoke obscures pollination during the flowering window and reduces yield at the physiological level. Aerosol stress on photosynthesis during the critical post-flowering berry-development window. The compound effect makes fire pressure one of the most dangerous short-lead supply-shock pathways for Arabica.
How to use this signal today
Directional fire-pressure overlay for Arabica positioning. Fire Pressure High firings flag bullish supply-shock setups with Arabica strength historically following at 60-day horizon; Fire Pressure Low firings flag bearish benign regimes. Pair with CHIRPS Brazil rainfall (drought driver of fire), ENSO dipole (weather regime), and USDA PSD Brazil Arabica (systemic supply) for stacked conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant but non-overlap test (108 independent 60-day samples) plus 0.103 at p-value 0.29 borderline significant. Fire pressure is heavily seasonal (August-October dry season); the composite ffills forward through wet season but short-horizon value concentrates in the dry season. 26-year FIRMS sample from 2000 is shorter than other weather-based KC signals.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 01:00 AM ET