· Analytic
LH CHIRPS US Hogs Iowa Minnesota
Iowa and Minnesota precipitation across the biggest US hog-production states, read as an experimental signal that the engine author has flagged as not working at practical horizons.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.766
Iowa / Minnesota precip composite, inverted, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Extreme POS
6 trading days in state since 2026-10-20
36-year sample
9,046 trading days
1990-11-29 through Oct 30, 2026
Historical IC (h=60)
-0.0451
Spearman, LH fwd60d, p < 0.0001 (WRONG SIGN)
Engine classification
DEAD at practical horizons
polarity_validated: False
Baseline LH fwd60d
+0.26%
Unconditional mean over 8,986 observable fwd60d days
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
Iowa and Minnesota are the number-one and number-two US hog-producing states, accounting together for roughly 40 percent of US hog inventory. They are also the number-one and number-two US corn-producing states. On the intuitive mechanism, dry weather in the hog belt should drive local corn basis up, lift hog feed costs, squeeze producer margins, and force herd liquidation. This signal reads daily satellite precipitation across the belt, inverts the sign so a dry read prints positive, and bounds the result from minus one to plus one. On July 2, 2020, during the COVID packing-plant rebalance, the composite at -0.52 preceded LH plus 108.9 percent over 60 trading days (an outlier where the signal fired on abundant rain and the market rallied anyway on unrelated supply dynamics). On November 5, 2019, the composite at +0.73 preceded LH minus 28.1 percent as the drought-feed-cost mechanism failed to transmit to CME. Today the composite reads +0.766, 12 trading days running dry per the engine convention. Here is the honest finding. The 36-year back-test shows Spearman IC of minus 0.045 at the 60-day forward horizon, which is both small in magnitude AND wrong-signed versus the engine’s a-priori. The engine author’s own classification is DO NOT WIRE, pending reregionalization. Read on for a transparent accounting of what the signal does and does not say, and why the drought-to-feed-cost mechanism does not transmit to Lean Hog futures at practical horizons.
LIVE CHART
36 years of Iowa / Minnesota hog-belt precipitation, read as a research-stage lens for LH (engine-flagged dead).
The composite entered the deep-dry zone six trading days ago. The thirty-day composite average sits at near-zero at +0.766, meaning the recent jump is a short-term spike rather than a sustained pattern. 2026 is not yet a USDM D3+ drought event. The signal’s current reading should be interpreted as research-stage information rather than as a tradable call.
COMPOSITE
+0.766 / tanh
STATE
Extreme Pos
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
-0.52% (baseline +1.59%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Deep Dry (per engine’s inverted convention), 6 trading days running. Historical extreme-pos entries have delivered mean fwd60d LH of minus 0.12 percent, below baseline.
WHY THE ENGINE IS FLAGGED DEAD
Spearman IC of minus 0.045 at h=60 is wrong-signed versus the engine’s a-priori and small in magnitude. The mechanism (drought → feed cost → margin squeeze → herd liquidation) does not transmit to CME LH at 60-day horizons because modern integrator-dominated production hedges feed costs via corn futures and forward grower contracts.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
Do not use as a live edge. If used, apply the empirical polarity (positive composite has preceded modestly below-baseline LH fwd60d).
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.766 in the Deep Dry (engine) band, 12 trading days running. The blue signal line is pressed up against its deep-dry threshold while LH futures (orange) have been directionless over the last two months. The engine’s a-priori implies bullish Lean Hogs; the 36-year sample says deep-dry has delivered minus 0.12 percent fwd60d LH, modestly below baseline. The signal author classifies the engine as DO NOT WIRE pending reregionalization. Do not size this reading as a trade.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.766 State Extreme POS; running 12 trading days in deep dry.
- Raw z-score +1.12 30-day trailing precipitation mean across Iowa / Minnesota hog belt, z-scored on a 5-year window with 252-day minimum, sign-flipped so dry prints positive, tanh-bounded.
- Engine classification DO NOT WIRE pending reregionalization. Spearman IC minus 0.045 at h=60, wrong-signed vs the engine’s a-priori. The mechanism does not transmit to CME Lean Hog futures at practical horizons.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE HONEST FINDING
The signal’s intuitive mechanism (dry hog-belt → corn basis up → hog feed costs up → producer margin squeeze → herd liquidation → LH forward response) does not transmit through modern integrator-dominated US hog production. The thirty-six-year back-test shows the signal’s forward-60-day Spearman IC is minus 0.045, which is small in magnitude AND wrong-signed. Do not treat this as a live edge.
WHY WE SHIP ANYWAY
So readers can see the honest engineering process. Not every signal in the library is a live edge. This one is a research-stage artifact. The failure mode (integrator hedging, 10-month placement-to-kill lag, 30-percent independent-producer transmission channel) is instructive. Future work may re-filter to specific USDM D3+ Iowa drought-severity regimes with 6-12 month forward targets, which could surface a usable edge the current construction does not.
THE INFORMATIVE CONTRAST
The LH China Hog Belt THI signal (sister weather signal, demand-side) delivers Spearman IC of plus 0.078 against LH forwards. The China heat signal works at practical horizons; the Iowa / Minnesota precipitation signal does not. The contrast: the demand-side China signal reaches into US LH through the export-pull channel more reliably than the supply-side feed-cost signal reaches through the integrator-hedged production channel. The library includes both so the comparison is explicit.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,986 trading days with observable LH fwd60d (1990-11-29 through roughly 2026-07-26). Baseline LH fwd60d (unconditional): plus 0.26 percent mean, minus 0.24 percent median, 10.9 percent standard deviation, 51.7 percent negative.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Dry (engine) TODAY | +1 | 47.3% (4283 d) | -0.52% | -2.11pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 18.6% (1687 d) | -1.83% | -3.43pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| Abundant Rain | -1 | 34.0% (3079 d) | -2.95% | -4.54pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Sep 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d LH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Dry (engine) | 10/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10d | +3.76% |
| Normal | 11/13/2024 | 11/15/2024 | 3d | +1.03% |
| Abundant Rain | 11/18/2024 | 11/29/2024 | 9d | +3.97% |
| Normal | 12/02/2024 | 12/12/2024 | 9d | -3.29% |
| Deep Dry (engine) | 12/13/2024 | 03/28/2025 | 72d | -6.85% |
| Normal | 03/31/2025 | 04/01/2025 | 2d | +9.38% |
| Abundant Rain | 04/02/2025 | 04/03/2025 | 2d | +9.45% |
| Normal | 04/04/2025 | 04/21/2025 | 11d | +22.79% |
| Abundant Rain | 04/22/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 8d | +19.03% |
| Normal | 05/02/2025 | 05/16/2025 | 11d | +11.95% |
| Abundant Rain | 05/19/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 5d | +8.42% |
| Normal | 05/27/2025 | 06/02/2025 | 5d | +7.51% |
| Abundant Rain | 06/03/2025 | 09/05/2025 | 66d | +8.86% |
| Normal | 09/08/2025 | 09/15/2025 | 6d | +5.14% |
| Deep Dry (engine) | 09/16/2025 | 03/31/2026 | 136d | +4.18% |
| Normal | 04/01/2026 | 04/01/2026 | 1d | +13.09% |
| Abundant Rain | 04/02/2026 | 04/02/2026 | 1d | +13.87% |
| Normal | 04/06/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 15d | +13.18% |
| Abundant Rain | 04/27/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 5d | +3.22% |
| Normal | 05/04/2026 | 05/15/2026 | 10d | +3.30% |
| Abundant Rain | 05/18/2026 | 05/26/2026 | 6d | +5.31% |
| Normal | 05/27/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 3d | +2.03% |
| Abundant Rain | 06/01/2026 | 06/17/2026 | 13d | +0.99% |
| Normal | 06/18/2026 | 06/29/2026 | 7d | +1.43% |
| Abundant Rain | 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 23d | +2.73% |
| Deep Dry (engine) | 08/03/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 1d | +1.58% |
| Normal | 08/04/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 2d | +0.13% |
| Deep Dry (engine) | 08/06/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 4d | -1.67% |
| Normal | 08/12/2026 | 08/18/2026 | 5d | |
| Abundant Rain | 08/19/2026 | 08/24/2026 | 4d | |
| Normal | 08/25/2026 | 09/01/2026 | 6d | |
| Abundant Rain | 09/02/2026 | 09/10/2026 | 6d | |
| Normal | 09/11/2026 | 09/17/2026 | 5d | |
| Abundant Rain | 09/18/2026 | 09/25/2026 | 6d | |
| Normal | 09/28/2026 | 09/29/2026 | 2d | |
| Abundant Rain | 09/30/2026 | 10/02/2026 | 3d | |
| Normal | 10/05/2026 | 10/14/2026 | 8d | |
| Deep Dry (engine) | 10/15/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 12d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LH is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The engine queries CHIRPS satellite daily precipitation for the Iowa / Minnesota hog belt, takes a 30-day trailing mean, z-scores on a trailing 1,260-day window with a 252-day minimum population, SIGN-FLIPS so a dry read prints positive, and bounds by tanh.
Why it matters
Why Iowa / Minnesota precipitation might matter for Lean Hogs
Iowa and Minnesota together account for roughly 40 percent of US hog inventory per USDA NASS, AND they are the number-one and number-two US corn producers. The engine’s a-priori mechanism is tight. Local drought drives feed-corn basis up, hog feed costs run roughly 70 percent of total production cost, producer margins compress, breeding herd gets liquidated, and 10-12 months later US hog supply contracts and futures rally. The 1988 Midwest and 2012 Midwest droughts both followed this pathway through to historically high corn prices and feed-cost shocks.
Why the 36-year sample says the pathway no longer transmits
The empirical Spearman IC of the signal against LH 60-day forwards is minus 0.045; small in magnitude and WRONG-SIGNED versus the engine’s a-priori. The mechanism’s failure has three structural reasons. First, modern integrator-dominated hog production (Smithfield, Tyson, JBS) hedges feed-cost exposure via corn futures and forward-priced grower contracts, muting the margin-squeeze channel. Second, the independent-producer channel that remains responsive is only roughly 30 percent of US production – too thin to move CME price at 60 days. Third, the placement-to-kill lag for hog production is approximately 10 months, so even a severe 2012-style drought would show in 2013 hog prices, not in 60-day forward returns.
How to use this signal today
Treat as a research-stage artifact, not a live edge. The engine source itself is tagged with classification DO NOT WIRE pending reregionalization. Readers who want the drought-to-LH pathway should look at longer-horizon (6-12 month) targets and USDM D3+ drought-severity filters, which the current construction does not apply. The page ships to document the honest engineering process and the failure mode; not because the signal works at 60 days. The sister signal LH CHIRPS China Hog NCP (Demand Pulse) uses the same CHIRPS source applied to the demand side of the LH story and has a similarly inverted empirical read; the two together form a research-stage weather lens for LH that should not be sized as a trade.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The research brief walks through 36 years of Iowa and Minnesota precipitation vs CME lean hogs, explains why the drought-to-feed cost-to-margin-squeeze pathway does not transmit at 60-day horizons in modern integrator-dominated US hog production, and documents the DO NOT WIRE classification against three structural reasons.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Oct 31, 2026 12:32 AM ET