· Analytic
LH FAO Meat Index YoY Signal
FAO Meat Price Sub-Index year-over-year, z-scored on five years and sign-flipped — the global cross-meat inflation context overlay for CME Lean Hogs forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.646
Global Meat Inflation extreme-positive, 105 trading days running
Signal state
Extreme POS
phase +1, FAO Meat YoY firmly in positive-z territory
Sample
Monthly FAO Meat, 36-year span
FAO Food Price Index Meat Sub-Index, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.0541
Spearman vs LH fwd60d, modest but statistically significant
Baseline LH fwd60d
+0.26%
Unconditional mean (lower than other signals — different sample window)
Global Meat Inflation fwd60d
+1.92% mean
+1.67 pp above baseline, 49.2% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization publishes the monthly FAO Food Price Index with a Meat Sub-Index that aggregates global protein prices (pork, beef, poultry, sheep) from major exporting regions. The year-over-year change in the Meat Sub-Index is a global cross-meat inflation context read — when global meat prices are strengthening against year-ago, demand pull is firm across the protein complex and the US pork market inherits the global tailwind. This signal reads the FAO Meat YoY, z-scores on a two-year window, applies a sign flip at the engine level so that the composite reads constructively for the Lean Hogs direction, and bounds with tanh. In November 1996 the signal pinned saturated-positive at plus 0.84 as global meat inflation accelerated through the Asian demand pull; lean hogs rallied 45 percent over the next sixty days as the global tailwind translated to the US market. In February 1993 the signal fired at plus 0.97 with lean hogs at $28.19; the market rallied 44 percent over 60 days through the global meat inflation window. The memorable twist: this is a cross-market context signal, not a primary directional read. Aggregate Spearman IC is +0.054 (statistically significant but modest). The signal is better used as a confirming overlay to the primary US supply-side signals than as a standalone driver. Read on for the current 105-day EXTREME_POS firing, the 1996 and 1993 global-meat anchors, and how to pair with the breeding-inventory supply read.
LIVE CHART
LH FAO Meat Index YoY Signal
Composite reads +0.647 as of October 30, 2026, in the Global Meat Inflation extreme-positive band, 105 trading days running since June 3, 2026. The blue signal line has held in the extreme-positive zone through the full 2026 Q3-Q4 window as FAO Meat YoY has stayed firmly positive. CME lean hogs (orange) have declined from the 2026 range top of $100 down to the $56-62 range through the firing — a divergence between the global tailwind and US cash-market weakness worth noting.
COMPOSITE
+0.646 / tanh
STATE
Extreme Pos
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
-3.57% (baseline +0.26%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Global Meat Inflation extreme-positive firing, 105 trading days running since June 3, 2026. State-conditional mean fwd60d LH is +1.92%, +1.67 pp above baseline. 1996 analog delivered a 45% rally through the Asian demand pull.
CROSS-MARKET CONTEXT, NOT PRIMARY
IC is +0.054 — statistically significant but modest magnitude. The signal reads global protein-complex demand environment, not US-specific supply dynamics. Pair with US-specific primaries, not standalone.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with the breeding-inventory signal (10-month forward supply), the carcass-weight signal (short-pull), and the commercial-positioning signal (professional direction). Use the Global Meat Inflation firing as a confirming overlay for bullish US-supply primaries.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.647 in the Global Meat Inflation extreme-positive band, 105 trading days running since June 3, 2026. The blue signal line has held in the extreme-positive zone through the entire 2026 Q3-Q4 window. CME lean hogs (orange) have declined from $100 at the 2026 range top down to the $56-62 range through the firing — a divergence between the global tailwind and US cash-market weakness. The 1996 and 1993 anchor cases are visible as the deepest saturated-positive bands in the earlier history.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.647 State Global Meat Inflation extreme-positive; 105 trading days running.
- FAO Meat YoY positive-z FAO Meat Sub-Index year-over-year change has held firmly in positive-z territory through 2026. Global protein-complex pricing is up vs year-ago.
- State-conditional edge: +1.67 pp mean Global Meat Inflation historical fwd60d LH mean +1.92%, baseline +0.26%. 1996 Asian pull delivered +45%; 1993 global peak delivered +44%. Current firing has NOT delivered — divergence between global tailwind and US cash-market weakness.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE GLOBAL CONTEXT CALL
Composite +0.647 as of October 30, 2026, in the Global Meat Inflation extreme-positive band, 105 trading days running since June 3, 2026. FAO Meat YoY has held in positive-z territory through most of 2026 as global protein-complex pricing firmed.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Global Meat Inflation historically delivers mean fwd60d LH of +1.92%, +1.67 pp above baseline. The 1996 and 1993 analogs delivered 44-45% rallies through global demand-pull windows. Typical firings deliver more modest edge.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Monthly FAO cadence means intra-month global protein moves read with a lag. The signal is a context overlay — do not size positions on this signal alone. Pair with US-specific supply primaries for confirmation.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,989 trading days with observable LH fwd60d. Baseline LH fwd60d (unconditional): plus 0.26 percent mean (lower than other LH signals due to different sample window — 1990+ rather than 1988+).
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Meat Inflation | +1 | 44.2% (4001 d) | -1.04% | -1.30pp | Jan 2026, Jul 2024, Jun 2022 | |
| Normal | 0 | 10.5% (953 d) | -0.26% | -0.51pp | May 2026, Dec 2025, Feb 2024 | |
| Global Meat Deflation TODAY | -1 | 45.3% (4095 d) | -3.57% | -3.82pp | Jun 2026, Oct 2022, Apr 2020 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
The signal pulls the FAO Food Price Index monthly release, reads the Meat Sub-Index (FAO_FOOD_PRICE_INDEX_MONTHLY, meat_index column), computes year-over-year percent change, z-scores on a 2-year (504 trading-day) rolling window, applies a sign flip at the engine level so composite reads constructively for LH direction, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily forward-fill between monthly releases.
Why it matters
Why global meat context matters for US Lean Hogs
US pork is both a major domestic consumer market and a major export category. US-produced pork exports absorb roughly 25-30 percent of US production in a typical year, with China, Mexico, and Japan the largest buyers. When global protein-complex prices are firming year-over-year (FAO Meat Index YoY positive-z), the US export channel inherits tailwind as US-produced pork becomes relatively attractive on world markets. The global tailwind translates to US cash-market firmness and forward curve support. Conversely, global meat deflation drags on US demand.
Why this is overlay, not primary
Aggregate Spearman IC is +0.054 — statistically significant but modest. The signal reads cross-market context (global protein inflation state), which is a secondary input to US LH forward returns. The primary drivers are US-specific supply (breeding inventory, market inventory, carcass weight) and US-specific positioning (commercial and managed-money COT). Use the Global Meat Inflation firing as a confirming overlay to bullish US-specific primaries.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the breeding-inventory signal (US 10-month forward supply), the market-inventory signal (US near-term supply), the carcass-weight signal (US short-pull), and the commercial-positioning signal (US professional direction). The current Global Meat Inflation firing (105 days) is historically constructive but the divergence between the global tailwind and the US cash-market weakness is a cautionary note. Use for confirming overlay, not primary direction.
Related signals
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Oct 31, 2026 04:02 PM ET