· Analytic
Z11555 LC Feedlot Corridor Rainfall Anomaly Signal
CHIRPS Kansas-Nebraska feedlot corridor 180-day rainfall anomaly, inverted and z-scored on two years — Grade A regional weather signal on CME Live Cattle.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.058
Normal regime, effectively neutral
Signal state
UNKNOWN
phase 0, rainfall near 2-year baseline
Sample
Daily CHIRPS, 36-year span
KS-NE feedlot corridor rainfall, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.199 (p ~ 0)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d; non-overlap p=0.007 at p=0.007 also significant
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.09%
Unconditional mean
Dry Corridor fwd60d
+2.90% mean
+1.82 pp above baseline, 69% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The Kansas-Nebraska feedlot corridor is the second-largest US cattle feedlot concentration after the Texas Panhandle, housing roughly 30 percent of national on-feed inventory combined. KS/NE pasture and feedlot conditions respond to the 6-month cumulative rainfall. Multi-month precipitation anomalies in this corridor translate directly to placement decisions and operational stress.This signal reads CHIRPS satellite 180-day cumulative rainfall over the KS-NE feedlot corridor, SIGN-FLIPS (dry conditions read positive composite), z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily CHIRPS release. Dry KS-NE corridor (positive composite) triggers forced feedlot placements as ranchers move cattle off compromised pasture into feedlots. Short-term feedlot inventory spikes but the net effect compresses the near-term feeder-cattle supply pipeline. Historically BULLISH LC forward. Wet KS-NE corridor (negative composite) means pasture retention holds cattle on grass longer; the forward supply pipeline tightens through retention. The empirical signature here is directional, not magnitude: wet corridor delivers bearish LC forward (demand/supply equilibrium weighs on cash), dry corridor delivers bullish. The memorable finding: this is a GRADE A regional weather signal. Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.199 at p-value essentially zero across 8,988 trading days. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is p=0.007 at p-value 0.007 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (Dry) delivers +2.90% fwd60d (+1.82 pp edge, hit 69%). Phase -1 (Wet) delivers -0.37% fwd60d (-1.46 pp edge, hit 48%). Phase 0 (Normal) delivers +0.92% fwd60d. 3.3+ pp directional spread. Current reading: Normal regime, composite +0.058. KS-NE rainfall is tracking the 2-year baseline. Signal is dormant at the transition point. Read on for the historical anchors and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC Feedlot Corridor Rainfall Anomaly Signal
Composite reads +0.058 as of October 30, 2026, in the Normal regime. CHIRPS KS-NE feedlot corridor 180-day rainfall is tracking the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.058 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
+0.92% (baseline +1.09%)
SAMPLE N
8,801 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
UNKNOWN
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal regime, 20 days running. Phase +1 (Dry) historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +2.90%, hit 69%, +1.82 pp above baseline. Phase -1 (Wet) delivers -0.37% / 48% hit / -1.46 pp below baseline.
THE REGIONAL WEATHER MECHANISM
Dry KS-NE corridor = forced feedlot placements = pipeline compression = bullish LC forward. Wet KS-NE corridor = pasture retention timing shift = equilibrium weighs on cash = bearish LC forward.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with the Texas Panhandle rainfall signal, the US beef-belt drought signal, LC-corn ratio, cattle inventory, slaughter YoY. KS-NE corridor is the second-largest feedlot concentration overlay.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.058 in the Normal regime. The blue signal line is near zero as CHIRPS KS-NE corridor 180-day rainfall tracks the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.058 State Normal, effectively neutral.
- KS-NE rainfall at baseline 180-day cumulative rainfall over Kansas and Nebraska feedlot corridor is tracking the 2-year baseline closely.
- State-conditional edge: -0.17 pp mean Normal regime historical fwd60d LC mean +0.92%, baseline +1.09%, hit 58%. Signal is dormant until it transitions to Phase +1 or Phase -1.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE WEATHER CALL
Composite +0.058, Normal regime, 20 days running. CHIRPS KS-NE feedlot corridor 180-day cumulative rainfall is tracking the 2-year baseline. No directional signal.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Normal regime historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +0.92% (-0.17 pp vs baseline, hit 58%). Signal is dormant until transition to Phase +1 or Phase -1.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC +0.199 strongly significant; non-overlap independence test at p=0.007 ALSO significant — Grade A directional. Signal is dormant currently; watch for transition.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,801 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.09 percent mean. Grade A directional signal with 3.3+ pp spread between tails.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Corridor | +1 | 30.6% (2690 d) | +1.94% | +0.86pp | Mar 2026, Jul 2025, Jun 2025 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 36.0% (3168 d) | +0.51% | -0.57pp | Sep 2026, Mar 2026, Jul 2025 | |
| Wet Corridor | -1 | 33.4% (2943 d) | -1.17% | -2.26pp | Sep 2025, Mar 2024, Nov 2023 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d LC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | 10/30/2024 | 01/02/2025 | 44d | +3.76% |
| Wet Or Baseline | 01/03/2025 | 01/03/2025 | 1d | -4.63% |
| Drought | 01/06/2025 | 01/15/2025 | 8d | -9.85% |
| Wet Or Baseline | 01/16/2025 | 01/17/2025 | 2d | -8.88% |
| Drought | 01/21/2025 | 02/25/2025 | 25d | -12.83% |
| Wet Or Baseline | 02/26/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 3d | -1.93% |
| Drought | 03/03/2025 | 03/14/2025 | 10d | +0.68% |
| Wet Or Baseline | 03/17/2025 | 04/01/2025 | 12d | +6.03% |
| Drought | 04/02/2025 | 04/17/2025 | 12d | +9.45% |
| Wet Or Baseline | 04/21/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 3d | +22.22% |
| Drought | 04/24/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 7d | +15.03% |
| Wet Or Baseline | 05/05/2025 | 06/16/2025 | 30d | +12.17% |
| Drought | 06/17/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 2d | +10.02% |
| Wet Or Baseline | 06/20/2025 | 06/27/2025 | 6d | +11.06% |
| Drought | 06/30/2025 | 07/02/2025 | 3d | +7.35% |
| Wet Or Baseline | 07/03/2025 | 07/03/2025 | 1d | +6.13% |
| Drought | 07/07/2025 | 09/09/2025 | 46d | +7.33% |
| Extreme Drought | 09/10/2025 | 03/06/2026 | 123d | +4.93% |
| Drought | 03/09/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 5d | +11.20% |
| Wet Or Baseline | 03/16/2026 | 09/23/2026 | 133d | +8.43% |
| Drought | 09/24/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 27d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls CHIRPS satellite 180-day cumulative rainfall over the Kansas-Nebraska cattle-feedlot corridor, computes an anomaly vs long-run normal, sign-flips so dry conditions read positive, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme).
Why it matters
Why KS-NE rainfall reads cattle supply pipeline
Kansas and Nebraska are the second-largest cattle feedlot concentration in the US after the Texas Panhandle, housing roughly 30 percent of national on-feed inventory combined. Multi-month precipitation anomalies in this corridor affect pasture conditions, placement timing, and feedlot operational stress. The 180-day cumulative window captures the growing-season rainfall that drives summer-fall pasture-vs-feedlot placement decisions.
Why Grade A with independent-sample significance
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.199 at p-value essentially zero across 8,988 observations. Non-overlapping (every-60d) independence test IC p=0.007 at p-value 0.007 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (Dry) delivers +1.82 pp above baseline, Phase -1 (Wet) delivers -1.46 pp below baseline. Clean directional edge both tails. Grade A regional weather signal.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the Texas Panhandle rainfall signal for the two largest feedlot concentrations, the US beef-belt drought signal for broader regional coverage, LC-corn ratio (feedlot-margin primary driver), FC-LC spread, cattle inventory, slaughter YoY. KS-NE corridor is a focused regional overlay with independent-sample significance.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 1, 2026 06:41 PM ET