KC SPECIALIST · Softs / Demand Composite
Z3462 – [KC] Global Soluble Exports Composite Signal
Global soluble coffee export growth interacted with weather and global price context captures Arabica demand regime and drives forward 60-day returns via the demand-plus-context channel.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.492
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
ICO monthly release drives signal refresh.
Signal state
Demand Soft
130 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
ICO monthly release
Sample
36-year window
Monthly cadence; 1990 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Soluble (instant) coffee exports represent the highest-value-added segment of global coffee trade and the fastest-growing consumption channel. Rising soluble export flow is a leading indicator of global coffee demand strength; falling flow signals demand softening. The signal reads global soluble exports, combines with ENSO weather context and ICO global price context into a composite, z-scores on a rolling window, and tanh-bounds. Daily Spearman IC against Arabica forward 60-day returns is plus 0.128 at p-value 1.0e-33 across 8,947 observations, strongly significant on the 36-year sample. Phase plus 1 firings deliver plus 3.97 pp above the plus 2.32 percent baseline. Phase minus 1 firings deliver minus 4.04 pp. 8.01 pp directional spread is among the widest in the KC library with a clean monotone phase pattern.
LIVE CHART
KC Global Soluble Exports Composite Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the global soluble-exports- plus-weather-plus-price composite z-scored on a rolling window and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means demand is strong with weather and price context supportive; negative composite means demand soft with context unfavorable. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Coffee C first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Arabica forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
-0.492 / tanh
STATE
Demand Soft
PHASE
-0.54
PHASE +1 EDGE
+3.97 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-4.04 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Demand Soft firing at composite -0.492, 130 trading days running in STRESS phase. Phase +1 (Demand Strong) delivers plus 6.28 percent fwd60d / plus 3.97 pp above plus 2.32 percent baseline. Phase -1 (Demand Soft) delivers minus 1.73 percent / minus 4.04 pp below baseline. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.128 at p-value 1.0e-33 strongly significant.
THE DEMAND-COMPOSITE MECHANISM
Soluble (instant) coffee exports are the highest-value-added segment of global coffee trade and the fastest-growing consumption channel. Rising soluble flow leads global coffee demand; falling flow signals demand softening. The composite adds ENSO weather context and ICO global price context to the soluble growth signal for a richer demand-regime read.
HOW TO POSITION
Directional demand regime lens for Arabica. Demand Strong firings flag bullish regimes with Arabica strength following at 60-day horizon. Demand Soft firings flag bearish regimes. Pair with USDA PSD supply, CFTC positioning, and Cecafe realized price for stacked demand-plus-supply conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.492 in the Demand Soft band. The signal has held below trend through 2026 with soluble demand and global price context combining into Phase -1 territory.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.492 State Demand Soft, 130 days running in STRESS phase.
- Global soluble export growth stalled Raw z-score -0.54; the composite of soluble flow plus weather plus price has run below trend through 2026 consistent with Phase -1 Demand Soft regime.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap borderline Daily Spearman IC plus 0.128 at p-value 1.0e-33 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC plus 0.111 at p-value 0.18 borderline significant on 150 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE DEMAND CALL
Composite -0.492, Demand Soft. The composite has run below trend through 2026 with the soluble demand and global price context combining into a Phase -1 signal. Signal firing in Demand Soft bucket for 130 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase -1 historically runs minus 4.04 pp below baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.128 at p-value 1.0e-33 strongly significant on 36-year sample. Phase +1 delivers plus 3.97 pp above baseline; Phase -1 delivers minus 4.04 pp. 8.01 pp directional spread is among the widest in the KC library with clean monotone phase pattern.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.111 at p-value 0.18 borderline significant on 150 samples. The composite layers three inputs (soluble flow plus weather plus price) which may obscure which channel is driving the signal in any given regime. Treat as demand-regime overlay rather than pure soluble-flow pure-play.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,947 post-warmup trading days (1990 onward). Baseline Arabica fwd60d mean plus 2.32 percent. Phase +1 (Demand Strong) delivers +3.97 pp edge; Phase -1 (Demand Soft) delivers -4.04 pp. 8.01 pp directional spread with daily IC plus 0.128 strongly significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Strong | +1 | 11.5% (1030 d) | +6.28% | +3.97pp | 2021-22, 2016-17 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 63.9% (5718 d) | +3.16% | +0.84pp | various | |
| Demand Soft TODAY | -1 | 24.6% (2199 d) | -1.73% | -4.04pp | 2026 (current), 2018-19 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of global soluble coffee export growth composited with ENSO weather context and ICO global price context, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals demand strong with weather and price context supportive (bullish); negative composite equals demand soft with context unfavorable (bearish). Target ICE US Coffee C first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why global soluble exports matter
Soluble (instant) coffee is the highest-value-added segment of global coffee trade and the fastest-growing consumption channel especially in emerging markets. Rising soluble export flow is a leading indicator of global demand strength because it reflects both volume growth and up-the-value- chain migration. Combining with ENSO weather context and ICO global price context into a composite enriches the signal with supply and benchmark-price layers.
How to use this signal today
Directional demand regime lens for Arabica positioning. Demand Strong firings flag bullish regimes where Arabica strength historically follows at 60-day horizon; Demand Soft firings flag bearish regimes. Pair with USDA PSD (systemic supply), CFTC positioning, and Cecafe realized price for stacked demand- plus-supply conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant but non-overlap test (150 independent 60-day samples) plus 0.111 at p-value 0.18 borderline significant. The composite layers three inputs (soluble flow plus weather plus price) which may obscure which channel is driving the signal in any given regime. Treat as demand- regime overlay rather than pure soluble-flow pure-play.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:15 AM ET