· Analytic
Z3270 LC Pasture Condition Signal
USDA NASS weekly pasture Good+Excellent condition across TX/OK/KS/MO, z-scored on two years — Grade C+ regional pasture-quality overlay on CME Live Cattle.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.494
High Pasture Quality moderate-positive firing
Signal state
Moderate POS
phase +1, G+E% above 2-year baseline
Sample
Weekly NASS, 36-year span
Pasture G+E% TX/OK/KS/MO, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.046 (p = 1.2e-05)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, marginal daily
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean
High Pasture fwd60d
+4.24% mean
+3.22 pp above baseline, 76% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS publishes weekly pasture condition ratings as the share of pasture rated Good or Excellent (G+E) by state. The G+E percentage captures the direct quality of rangeland supporting cow-calf operations — a distinct read from rainfall or drought-monitor signals (which read inputs to pasture quality). This signal composites G+E condition across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri — the four states that together host over 50 percent of US beef cow inventory. Z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample. Tanh-bounded to [-1, +1]. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Weekly NASS release cadence (growing-season only). The memorable finding: Grade C+ magnitude-not-direction regional overlay. BOTH tails deliver bullish forward LC returns via different mechanisms, while the Normal middle is modestly bearish. High Pasture Quality (positive composite) is bullish via herd-retention (producers hold cattle on grass longer then tight-pipeline forward supply). Low Pasture Quality (negative composite) is bullish via forced-placement (drought moves cattle off pasture into feedlots sooner, compressing the near-term supply pipeline). Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.046 at p-value 1.2e-5 across 9,049 observations — marginal. Non-overlap IC is not significant. Phase +1 (High Pasture) delivers +4.24% fwd60d (+3.22 pp edge, hit 76%). Phase -1 (Low Pasture) delivers +2.24% fwd60d (+1.22 pp edge, hit 72%). Phase 0 (Normal) delivers +0.61%. BOTH tails bullish; Normal zone bearish. Current reading: High Pasture EXTREME POS firing at composite +0.494. Pasture conditions across TX/OK/KS/MO are deeply above 2-year baseline — historically bullish via herd-retention. Read on for the historical anchors and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC Pasture Condition Signal
Composite reads +0.494 as of October 30, 2026, near the High Pasture Quality EXTREME POS threshold. NASS weekly pasture G+E% across TX/OK/KS/MO is above the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.494 / tanh
STATE
High Pasture Quality
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+4.24% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
High Pasture Quality moderate-positive firing, 30 days running. Phase +1 historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +4.24%, hit 76%, +3.22 pp above baseline. Phase -1 (Low Pasture) delivers +2.24% / 72% hit / +1.22 pp. Both tails bullish.
THE DUAL-MECHANISM EXPLANATION
High pasture quality = herd retention (cattle held on grass longer) = tight near-term feedlot pipeline forward = bullish-LC. Low pasture quality = drought-forced placements = pipeline compression = bullish-LC. Normal middle is equilibrium = modestly bearish.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with the Texas Panhandle rainfall signal, the KS-NE corridor rainfall signal, beef-belt drought signal, LC-corn ratio, cattle inventory. Pasture condition is a distinct consumer-side quality read (vs rainfall input signals).
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.494 near the High Pasture Quality EXTREME POS threshold. The blue signal line has moved to the +0.5 band as NASS weekly G+E% across TX/OK/KS/MO firmed above the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.494 State High Pasture Quality moderate-positive firing, 30 days running.
- NASS G+E% above baseline Weekly pasture Good + Excellent percentage across TX/OK/KS/MO is running materially above the 2-year baseline — herd-retention regime active.
- State-conditional edge: +3.22 pp mean High Pasture historical fwd60d LC mean +4.24%, baseline +1.02%, hit 76%. Current firing near EXTREME POS sub-band — strong retention-regime read.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PASTURE CALL
Composite +0.494, High Pasture Quality moderate-positive firing. NASS weekly G+E% across TX/OK/KS/MO is running materially above the 2-year baseline — herd-retention regime.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
High Pasture historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +4.24% (+3.22 pp vs baseline, hit 76%). Current firing is near EXTREME POS threshold (+0.5) — strong read.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC +0.046 marginal. Non-overlap not significant. Weekly cadence slows updates. Grade C+ regional overlay with strong tail-conditional edge.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean. Both tails bullish via different mechanisms; Normal middle bearish.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Pasture Quality TODAY | +1 | 8.6% (774 d) | +5.15% | +4.13pp | Aug 2026, May 2026, Jan 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 83.8% (7584 d) | +1.64% | +0.62pp | Jul 2026, Jun 2026, May 2026 | |
| Low Pasture Quality | -1 | 7.6% (691 d) | +0.98% | -0.04pp | Jul 2026, Nov 2025, Apr 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d LC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positive | 10/30/2024 | 04/04/2025 | 108d | +3.76% |
| Neutral | 04/07/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 14d | +23.98% |
| Negative | 04/28/2025 | 09/26/2025 | 106d | +15.17% |
| Neutral | 09/29/2025 | 11/14/2025 | 35d | +3.66% |
| Negative | 11/17/2025 | 01/02/2026 | 32d | +2.42% |
| Positive | 01/05/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 82d | -4.72% |
| Neutral | 05/04/2026 | 05/15/2026 | 10d | +3.30% |
| Positive | 05/18/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 9d | +5.31% |
| Neutral | 06/01/2026 | 07/02/2026 | 23d | +0.99% |
| Negative | 07/06/2026 | 07/10/2026 | 5d | +1.72% |
| Neutral | 07/13/2026 | 08/14/2026 | 25d | +3.99% |
| Positive | 08/17/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 54d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS weekly pasture condition ratings (Good + Excellent percentage) across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri — the four states that together host over 50 percent of US beef cow inventory. Composites into a single multi-state G+E index, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Weekly NASS release (growing-season only).
Why it matters
Why pasture condition reads cattle supply dynamics
Pasture condition directly affects cow-calf and feedlot operations. The NASS weekly rating captures the share of pasture classified Good or Excellent — a direct read on rangeland quality supporting the cattle supply pipeline. The 4-state composite (TX/OK/KS/MO) covers the heart of US beef cow country — these states together host over 50 percent of national beef cow inventory. Weekly cadence captures growing-season dynamics.
Why Grade C+ with dual-tail mechanism
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.046 at p-value 1.2e-5 across 9,049 observations — marginal. Non-overlap test not significant. BUT phase-conditional stats are striking: Phase +1 (High Pasture) delivers +3.22 pp above baseline, Phase -1 (Low Pasture) delivers +1.22 pp above baseline, Phase 0 (Normal) delivers -0.41 pp. BOTH tails bullish via different mechanisms; Normal middle is bearish. Grade C+ regional pasture-quality overlay.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the Texas Panhandle rainfall signal, the KS-NE corridor rainfall signal, US beef-belt drought signal, LC-corn ratio, cattle inventory. Pasture condition is a direct quality read — distinct from rainfall input signals (CHIRPS) and drought monitor outputs. All three types complement in the weather-overlay stack.
Related signals
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 02:01 PM ET