· Analytic
Z3750 LC WOAH Anthrax Signal
WOAH (World Organisation for Animal Health) global anthrax outbreak report cohort-count, z-scored on five years — the zoonotic bacterial disease supply-disruption signal for CME Live Cattle.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.315
High Anthrax moderate-positive, 59 trading days running
Signal state
Moderate POS
phase +1, WOAH anthrax cohort elevated vs 5-year baseline
Sample
Daily WOAH WAHIS, 36-year span
WOAH anthrax outbreak cohort count, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.094 (p = 4e-19)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, strongly significant daily
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean, median +1.74%
High Anthrax fwd60d
+2.40% mean
+1.38 pp above baseline, 62.1% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH, formerly OIE) is the UN-recognized global authority tracking livestock disease outbreaks across all member countries. WOAH publishes the World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS) with country-level outbreak reports for every notifiable disease. Anthrax, a zoonotic bacterial disease caused by Bacillus anthracis, is one of the oldest known livestock diseases and remains a persistent threat in cattle-producing regions globally. When anthrax outbreaks accelerate — measured by cohort count across reporting countries — regional cattle supply gets disrupted through herd quarantine, culling, and export suspension. The disruption transmits to the global beef market via supply tightening and to US Live Cattle via the cross-market demand-shift channel as import flows reroute. This signal reads the WOAH anthrax cohort count, z-scores on a five-year rolling window, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). In September 2019 the signal pinned saturated-positive at composite +0.95 with LC at 94.20 cents per pound; LC rallied 28 percent over the next sixty days as the pre-ASF cattle-cycle setup combined with elevated global anthrax background to tighten forward supply. In January 2020 the signal fired at composite -0.90 with LC at 126.73 during the pre-COVID high-supply environment; LC crashed 34 percent as abundant supply overwhelmed the quiet-disease backdrop. The memorable twist: this is Grade B with daily IC plus 0.094 at p=4e-19 (highly significant). Non-overlapping independence IC is plus 0.079 at p=0.34 (not significant, direction consistent). The signal is a disease-cycle supply-disruption overlay — pair with the LC fundamental stack for direction. Read on for the current 59-day Moderate POS firing, the 2019 and 2020 anchor cases, and how to use this disease overlay.
LIVE CHART
LC WOAH Anthrax Signal
Composite reads +0.353 as of October 30, 2026, in the High Anthrax moderate-positive band, 59 trading days running. WOAH anthrax outbreak cohort has elevated vs the 5-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range through this firing. The 2019 September anchor is visible as the deepest earlier High Anthrax firing before the pre-ASF LC rally.
COMPOSITE
+0.353 / tanh
STATE
High Anthrax
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+2.40% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
8,989 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
High Anthrax moderate-positive firing, 59 trading days running. Phase +1 historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +2.40%, hit 62.1% — +1.38 pp above the +1.02% baseline. The 2019 September analog delivered +28% through pre-ASF supply tightening coincident with elevated disease background.
THE DISEASE-SUPPLY MECHANISM
When anthrax outbreaks accelerate globally, regional cattle supply is disrupted through quarantine, culling, and export suspension. The disruption transmits via supply tightening and cross-market demand-shift as import flows reroute. US LC inherits the global tightening and demand redirection.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as disease-cycle supply overlay. Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin primary), commercial positioning (hedge regime), FAO Cereal (global grain stress), and USDA cattle-on-feed (US supply). Disease overlay confirms global supply disruptions that transmit to US LC via demand-shift.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.353 in the High Anthrax moderate-positive band, 59 trading days running. The blue signal line has moved into positive territory through the Q3-Q4 2026 window as WOAH anthrax cohort elevated vs the 5-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range. The 2019 September anchor is visible as the deepest earlier High Anthrax firing before the pre-ASF LC rally.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.353 State High Anthrax moderate-positive; 59 trading days running.
- WOAH anthrax cohort elevated Global anthrax outbreak reports have accelerated vs the 5-year baseline through 2026 Q3. Member-country reporting countries have notified more outbreak events.
- State-conditional edge: +1.38 pp mean High Anthrax historical fwd60d LC mean +2.40%, baseline +1.02%, hit 62.1%. 2019 pre-ASF analog delivered +28%; 2016 Q4 analog delivered +27%. Current firing at +0.353 is below the +0.5 extreme threshold.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE DISEASE CALL
Composite +0.353, High Anthrax moderate-positive, 59 trading days running. WOAH anthrax outbreak cohort has elevated vs the 5-year baseline through Q3 2026 as global reporting countries have accelerated outbreak notifications.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
High Anthrax historically delivers mean fwd60d LC of +2.40%, +1.38 pp above the +1.02% baseline, hit 62.1%. The 2019 September analog delivered +28% through combined pre-ASF supply tightening + elevated disease background. Current firing is modest-magnitude disease elevation.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC is strongly significant (+0.094, p=4e-19). Non-overlapping independence test p-value 0.34 (direction consistent, non-significant on 150 independent samples). Disease signals often transmit via multiple co-cycle paths; the signal confirms global disease elevation but does not drive direction on its own.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,989 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean, median plus 1.74 percent. Global anthrax outbreaks historically precede LC supply-tightening transmission.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Anthrax TODAY | +1 | 24.5% (2220 d) | +2.66% | +1.64pp | Aug 2026, Jul 2026, Dec 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 51.4% (4652 d) | +2.48% | +1.46pp | Jul 2026, Jun 2026, Jun 2026 | |
| Low Anthrax | -1 | 24.1% (2177 d) | +2.05% | +1.03pp | Jun 2026, May 2026, Jan 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
The signal pulls the World Organisation for Animal Health WAHIS global disease database (WOAH_WAHIS_OUTBREAKS), filters to anthrax events (disease code = anthrax, cattle species), computes cohort count per rolling window across all reporting countries, z-scores on a five-year rolling window, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily update as outbreak reports come in.
Why it matters
Why WOAH anthrax matters for US Live Cattle
WOAH is the UN-recognized global authority tracking livestock disease. Member-country reports to the WAHIS database are the standard global disease-surveillance record. Anthrax, caused by Bacillus anthracis, is a persistent zoonotic bacterial disease affecting cattle in multiple global production regions. Outbreaks cause regional quarantines, culling, and export suspension. For US LC, the transmission channels are: (1) global supply tightening lifts world beef prices and US cash cattle gets bid up through cross-market arbitrage; (2) demand-shift as importers reroute from affected exporters to clean sources including the US. The signal is a disease-cycle overlay confirming or contradicting global supply dynamics.
Why Grade B with non-significant independence
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.094 at p-value 4e-19 across 8,989 observations — strongly significant. Non-overlapping (every-60d) independence test returns p-value 0.34 across 150 independent samples — direction consistent, magnitude material, but p-value above the 0.05 threshold. Disease signals often transmit via multiple co-cycle paths (anthrax + bluetongue + foot-and-mouth all operating simultaneously), so a single-disease signal is a partial view. Phase +1 delivers +1.38 pp above baseline, hit 62.1%. The signal belongs in the LC stack as a disease overlay.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin primary driver), commercial positioning (hedge regime), FAO Cereal Price (global grain stress), USDA cattle-on-feed (US supply), BLS ground beef retail (demand-side). The current High Anthrax firing is modest-magnitude and historically constructive — confirm with LC-corn ratio and cattle-on-feed for direct US-supply confirmation. Disease overlay is a confirming input, not a standalone driver.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The research brief walks through the WOAH WAHIS anthrax surveillance methodology, documents the 2019 pre-ASF and 2016 Q4 elevated-disease anchors plus the 2020 pre-COVID quiet-disease drop, and explains how global disease overlay transmits to US Live Cattle via supply-shift and demand-routing channels.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Oct 31, 2026 09:17 PM ET