Home  ›  Education  ›  Bridge of Death  ›  Lean Hogs  ›  The 1998 Bust

LH · Lean Hogs ·Bridge of Death · Question 07 of 11

The 1998 Bust

The scene

You are a Knight of the Round Table — a Launcelot, a Galahad, a Sir Robin, perhaps King Arthur himself — and your quest, as you shall shortly declare, is to seek the Holy Grail. The road requires crossing the Gorge of Eternal Peril. The only way across is the Bridge of Death. There stands the Bridgekeeper, an old man with a staff, who will ask you three questions. Answer rightly, and he waves you past. Answer wrongly, and — into the gorge you will be thrown. Good luck.

At the bridge

“STOP! Who would cross the Bridge of Death must answer me these questions three, ere the other side he see.”

, Gorge of Eternal Peril.

1Question the first

What… is your name?

“

Answer

State your name.

2Question the second

What… is your quest?

“

Answer

I seek the Holy Grail of trading.

3Question the third

What… is the dollar loss, in a single year, for a mid-sized Iowa hog farmer marketing 10,000 hogs at December 1998 prices against normal feed and facility costs?

December 1998. US hog prices crash to $8 per hundredweight, the lowest nominal price in fifty years. Steve Meyer, still on the bridge, revisits the year he watched independent Iowa hog farming die. Picture an Iowa farmer with 5,000 breeding sows that turn over twice a year, marketing 10,000 hogs annually. Feed and facility costs run about $80 per hog. The Bridgekeeper wants a loss figure, in dollars.

Select one of the five answers below. Choose carefully, and accept your fate.