Energy

The 5-state crude oil playbook that reads WTI curve shape (two signals), refining margins, speculative positioning, and distillate-specific demand through a weighted blend. Three of the five input polarities are MINUS one (origin of the ‘Contrarian’ in the name), but the composite verdict-to-CL mapping is MONOTONICALLY TREND-FOLLOWING. Forty-five years of continuous sample. strong bullish verdicts have delivered mean CL forward 60-day returns of plus 9.23 percent versus plus 2.68 percent baseline, edge plus 6.55 pp, HAC Newey-West t plus 2.56. strong bearish verdicts (where today reads) have delivered plus 1.01 percent, edge minus 1.67 pp.

The 5-state natural gas directional playbook with five analytical signal inputs reading NG YoY momentum, NG-CL fuel-switch parity (sister pair of two signals), regional storage imbalance, and LNG export dynamics. Thirty-four years of continuous sample. strong bullish verdicts deliver plus 10.36 percent NG fwd 60d (edge plus 7.03 pp above baseline, HAC Newey-West t plus 3.99, significant at 1 percent). strong bearish verdicts deliver -26.04 percent (edge -29.38 pp, HAC t -7.04, significant at 1 percent). One of the strongest two-tailed verdict payoffs in the library.