Economic

Federal Reserve commercial-bank credit-card delinquency rate year-over-year, z-scored and tanh-bounded, as a macro consumer-stress overlay on SPX forward returns.

The Federal Reserve G.19 consumer credit YoY Z-score signal, read as a consumer-stress regime indicator. Forty-six years of history, 121 state transitions. Credit Contraction states (minus one) have historically preceded SPY forward 60-day returns of plus 5.14 percent versus a plus 2.31 percent baseline (edge plus 2.83 pp, HAC t plus 3.43). The 2008-2010 GFC-recovery credit contraction and the 1991-1992 post-recession contraction are the signature cases.

The silver retail-squeeze signal that detects when coordinated retail buying creates physical-supply dislocation. Fifty-six years of silver market history. Retail Squeeze Up states (plus one) have delivered mean SPY fwd 60d of plus 0.28 percent versus a plus 2.31 percent baseline, edge minus 2.03 pp. The signal reads coordinated retail activity in SI silver as a sentiment proxy.