SI · Metals / Cross-Metal Ratio Mean-Reversion
Z4354 – SI Silver Gold-Silver Ratio
The gold-silver ratio reverts to a long-run mean around 60; when the ratio spikes to extreme highs, silver has historically rallied to compress the ratio with 572 basis-point forward 60-day edge.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.313
Gold-silver ratio GC over SI z-score, tanh-bounded
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
Moderate NEG
1 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals silver cheap vs gold; negative equals silver expensive
Sample
36 years
Daily gold-silver ratio since November 1990
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The gold-silver ratio has a long-run historical mean near sixty. One ounce of gold has bought roughly sixty ounces of silver on average for the past century. The ratio exhibits mean-reversion on multi-year horizons; extreme deviations typically correct. When the ratio spikes to extreme highs (silver cheap), silver has historically rallied hard to compress the ratio. This signal reads the gold-silver ratio, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh. On March 19 2020 the composite reached its series maximum plus 1.0000 during the COVID crash when the ratio spiked to 125. Silver rallied from 12 to 30 dollars over the following year. Phase +1 silver-cheap state has delivered plus 5.31 percent mean forward 60-day silver return versus Phase -1 silver-expensive -0.41 percent. Today the composite reads -0.313, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of GC over SI, Z-scored against the trailing five-year baseline, bounded by tanh.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks silver-cheap regime where the ratio is extended high (gold outperforming silver). The pale green band at the bottom marks silver-expensive regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient against silver forward 60-day returns. The lower panel is COMEX SI continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.600 / tanh
STATE
Moderate Neg
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+4.09% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate NEG. The composite is reading sustained negative-Z territory as silver’s partial catch-up against gold through 2025-2026 brings the ratio down against a 5 year baseline that still anchors on the 2022-2024 compression peaks.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The 1,260 day rolling baseline has not yet rolled off the 2022-2024 peak-compression window. As those peak-compression days drop out through 2027, the baseline will normalize downward and the Z-score will drift back toward zero even without further ratio changes.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a fast-reacting Z-score framing with saturation sensitivity. Readers should pair with the 20 year percentile companion signal (which reads the current ratio as moderately above baseline on the longer historical view) and physical-market silver signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.313 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band. The signal updates daily from COMEX gold and silver futures closes; watch for sustained moves toward extremes as mean-reversion setups.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- COMEX gold price GC daily close used in the ratio numerator.
- COMEX silver price SI daily close used in the ratio denominator.
- Rolling z-score Standardizes against trailing baseline window.
THE REGIME MAP
The five regime states, forward returns and sample share
Baseline SPY forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.31 percent, median plus 3.14 percent, standard deviation 7.23 percent, percent negative 29.57 percent across 8,494 trading days. The signal’s primary target is silver forward returns.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver cheap | +1 | 44.0% (3974 d) | +5.31% | +2.53pp | Oct 2025, Oct 2025, Dec 2024 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 13.9% (1252 d) | +4.30% | +1.52pp | Nov 2026, Nov 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Silver expensive | -1 | 42.1% (3798 d) | -0.41% | -3.19pp | Nov 2026, Nov 2026, Nov 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d COMEX SI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day COMEX SI is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The gold-silver ratio (gold price divided by silver price) exhibits mean-reversion on multi-year horizons, oscillating around a long-run mean near 60. When the ratio spikes to extreme highs (silver cheap vs gold), silver has historically rallied hard to compress the ratio back toward its mean. The engine reads the GC/SI ratio, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh. Elevated composite equals silver cheap equals mean-reversion bullish silver.
Why it matters
The gold-silver ratio has a century-long historical mean around 60. Extreme deviations in either direction have historically corrected. The mechanism reflects shared monetary demand (both metals) plus differential industrial demand (silver more cyclical).
Phase +1 silver-cheap has delivered plus 5.31 percent mean fwd 60d silver return versus baseline plus 2.79 percent. Pair with industrial-demand signals and macro-stress signals for a complete silver view.
The long-run mean has shifted over the century; the 1900s saw ratios of 20-40, the 1980s-2020s have seen 40-100. Structural shifts in gold monetary demand or silver industrial demand can re-anchor the ratios mean; mean-reversion is not guaranteed.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 08:44 AM ET