The global ratio of 1-pig-per-10-humans is boring. The country-level dispersion around that average is where the Lean Hogs trader actually looks. Denmark runs about 2.0 pigs per person, almost all for export. China runs about 0.3, with the world’s largest domestic consumption absorbing almost all of it. The US runs 0.22 and splits roughly 80/20 domestic/export. Israel runs 0.001, essentially zero, by religious law.

What matters for the LH futures curve is the change in ratio by country, not the level. When Denmark’s ratio compresses because EU emissions regulations force herd contraction, the EU moves from net exporter to net importer. US pork exports fill the gap. When Mexico’s ratio rises because domestic production scales, US exports to Mexico drop. When China’s ratio collapses (ASF), US exports to China go vertical.

For a Lean Hogs trader, the practical implication is that the FAO annual livestock inventory and the USDA-FAS GAIN reports on major producer countries are the leading indicators for US pork export destinations. The MO file for an LH trader includes FAO’s annual pig inventory table and the country-level GAIN reports for Denmark, Germany, Spain, China, Vietnam, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico. When any one of those country ratios moves meaningfully, US pork export flow adjusts within one or two quarters.

The question is a thought experiment. The 1:10 global ratio is a lens for watching the country-level dispersion that moves actual flow.