THE PLAYBOOKS LIBRARY · SECTOR
Grains
Every grains playbook on the site, grouped by market. Within each market the strongest playbooks appear first.
PROTOTYPE entries have a working version on the legacy davidstendahl.com site and are being ported here. QUEUED entries are in build.
1 live · 13 prototype · 8 queued
Corn
1/4 LIVE
Y852Corn Cycle DNA
The seven-input annual corn cycle playbook. The composite verdict ladder is MONOTONICALLY TREND-FOLLOWING in corn forward returns, with both extreme tails highly statistically significant: strong bullish delivers +5.24% corn fwd 60d (HAC t +4.77 significant at the 1 percent level); strong bearish delivers -9.99% (HAC t -6.19 significant at the 1 percent level). All four non-NEUTRAL states are HAC-t significant at the 1 percent threshold.
C·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y100238Corn Extremes Contrarian V9PROTOTYPE
A TRUE CONTRARIAN composite , when the ladder reads strong bearish, expect corn UP. Built on a weather-drought composite + ENSO + FGIS China velocity + CFTC commercials + gold momentum. All four non-NEUTRAL tails sig at 1% (except at 5%).
C·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y1359Corn Transport Composite (C-TRD-4)PROTOTYPE
Three US-domestic grain transport signals , river barge rates, rail tariffs, and the 5-component transport-cost composite , blended equal-weight into a 5-state directional-allocator for corn. 60-day ladder cleanly monotonic across all 5 states at 1 percent HAC-t. strong bullish delivers +6.31% corn fwd 60d.
C·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y1089ML Auto Corn Composite V9PROTOTYPE
Fifteen analytical signal signals weighted by LightGBM gradient-boosted-trees feature importance into a trend-following composite. In-sample ladder spectacular (strong bullish +17.88% HAC-t +12.69 across 276 state-days). Deployable 5-fold CV IC only +0.1996, size off CV, not ladder.
C·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Soybeans
0/11 LIVE
Y6149Soybean ML Proposed Composite V9PROTOTYPE
Fifteen analytical signal signals selected by LightGBM feature-importance from 71 grade-eligible soybean Zs. Target: soybean 20-day forward log-return. Deployable 5-fold CV IC +0.263 (healthier than ML Auto Corn Composite V9 corn's +0.1996). Current at 19.2 percentile, divergent from Soybean Five-Axis Multi-Source Composite V9 Soybean +0.097 NEUTRAL.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y151Global Rising Tide CompositePROTOTYPE
Five lenses on whether global expansion is synchronized across US, Europe, Japan, China, and EM.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y100294Soybean Argentine Biofuels Regime (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE
Five IC-audited Argentine signals blend into a rolling-z verdict machine, FAS PSD Argentine soybean stocks anchor (30 percent), Argentine soymeal production YoY INV (25 percent), Argentine soyoil PSD cross-wired to S via -1 flip (20 percent), Argentine Pampas pod-fill heat (15 percent), GDELT Argentine protest INV (10 percent). Closes KYM §15.2 S-E10 seat. ⚠️ ASYMMETRIC LADDER, composite is a BULLISH-REGIME DETECTOR despite 5-state verdict naming.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y100291Soybean Biofuels Mandate Regime (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE
Five IC-audited biofuels demand signals blend into a rolling-z verdict machine, EPA RVO BBD mandate anchor, Argentine soyoil exports (internally inverted), Renewable Diesel stocks drawdown (internally inverted), biofuels total demand (RD + Biodiesel feedstock pull), CARB LCFS credit price (dual-component with $100 Tran H3 threshold). Uniform pol=+1 wiring. Completes inst-analysis biofuels trio with Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (inst-analysis) + Soybean Argentine Biofuels Regime (inst-analysis).
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y100290Soybean Brazil Supply Momentum (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE
Five IC-audited South American supply signals blend into a bidirectional rolling-z verdict machine, IBGE Brazilian production YoY anchor, USDA PSD supply/use ratio, CHIRPS Mato Grosso weather, Argentine meal exports (demand-side offset from v3 silent-dead triage), IBGE Brazilian area planted. SUPPLY-side specialist pair to Soybean China Crush Demand (inst-analysis) DEMAND-side specialist. Current -1.21σ at 22.2 percentile with the companion signal PSD S/U at near-max 97.3 pctile.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y100292Soybean China Crush Demand (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE
Five IC-audited China-focused signals blend into a rolling-z verdict machine, CNY strength anchor, FGIS China weekly inspections, China export demand aggregator, USDA PSD China imports polarity-flipped, and inspections China destination share. Current +2.58σ at 98.1 percentile, one of the most extreme coordinated surge regimes in 36 years.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y1025Soybean Five-Axis Multi-Source Composite V9PROTOTYPE
Five orthogonal soybean mechanism-axes, spread persistence anchor + HRS belt drought + ENSO inverted + fast-cadence FGIS China weekly demand + US vs IMF global supply valuation, hand-blended with |corr| ≤ 0.32 orthogonality constraint. Verdict ladder MONOTONIC + ALL 5 STATES 1% HAC-t SIG. strong bullish +9.08% soybean fwd 60d.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y100293Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE
Five Tier A/B IC-audited substitution-mechanism signals blend into a rolling-z verdict machine, CPO Discount Cap anchor (Fry H1), ZL/palm premium (Irwin H2 empirically inverted), Global Oil/Meal Ratio (spectacular rare-tail), Global Vegetable Oil Balance, Soy/Palm/CPO Spread (empirically inverted). Monotonic 60d ladder with 3 bull-side bands at 1 percent HAC-t sig.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y9847Soybean S-DEM-1 Answer (25-member Q&A composite, 92% overlap with Y10506)QUEUED
Twenty-five members at equal 4-percent weight each, same `qanda_equal_weight_v1` workflow as Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite). But this playbook is 92 percent MEMBER-IDENTICAL to Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite) (23 of 25 members shared). Only 2 members differ: this playbook includes S China Export Demand Aggregator S china export demand (NEAR MAX 99.3 pctile) + the companion signal (DEAD at 0.000); Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite) includes Brazil Mato Grosso drought + the companion signal SA grain harvest. 5th-highest IC weight (0.065) in soybean portfolio.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y10506Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite)QUEUED
Twenty-five members at equal 4-percent weight each, scattershot auto-batch selection from 178 HIGH-confidence analytical signals mapped to question S-SUP-2 (soybean supply side). 4-band effective ladder because strong bullish unreachable by equal-weight design. 72 percent cross-wired members (wheat / BO / SM / other native targets). 4th-highest IC weight (0.069) in soybean portfolio.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y11397Soybean META Defensible 1QUEUED
Seven members blended into a hand-weighted composite from xval-validated trust list. Monotonic 60d ladder with ALL 5 bands significant. strong bullish delivers +10.34% soybean fwd 60d (HAC-t +8.28, 1% sig). Mechanism-diverse coverage: cocoa positioning (anchor, inherited cross-wire), UCO substitution, drought, biofuels, FX, palm spreads.
S·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Wheat
0/6 LIVE
Y6131Wheat ML Proposed Composite V9PROTOTYPE
Fifteen members selected by LightGBM feature-importance from 30 eligible wheat analytical signals. ⭐ BEST ML composite of session , 5 of 5 CV folds POSITIVE, 1.35x overfit gap, CV mean IC +0.515. Dramatically better-generalizing than corn (ML Auto Corn Composite V9 4.08x) or soybean (Soybean ML Proposed Composite V9 2.61x) ML composites. Current verdict .
W·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y5052W_FwdRet_Composite_h20QUEUED
W·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y11836W_HRW_Class_SubstitutionQUEUED
W·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y6734W_w_sup_14_Answer_v2QUEUED
W·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y8365W_w_sup_14_Answer_v3QUEUED
W·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Y6967Wheat W-SUP-14 Answer (25-member Q&A composite)QUEUED
Twenty-five members at equal 4% weight each spanning every major wheat producer region. Built 2026-07-01 via `qanda_equal_weight_v1` workflow answering W-SUP-14 (wheat supply side). 2nd-highest IC weight (0.104) in wheat portfolio. All Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite) structural caveats apply inherited.
W·Grains & Oilseeds
Included in playbooks — coming soon
Not investment advice. All live playbooks on this page are published with full methodology and limitations disclosures. Back to all playbooks