GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z102150 – GC US Gold Import HK YoY Z
HK is the primary China gold arbitrage conduit. Complements a sibling signal (US to UK exports).
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.000
GC US Gold Import HK YoY Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Neutral
9 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals hk imports surging; negative equals hk imports weak
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-12
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
HK is the primary China gold arbitrage conduit. Complements a sibling signal (US to UK exports). The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 37 years Phase +1 hk imports surging state has returned on average plus 1.65 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 hk imports weak state has returned on average minus 3.18 percent. Today the composite reads +0.000, in Neutral territory.
LIVE CHART
GC US Gold Import HK YoY Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks hk imports weak regime. The pale green band marks hk imports surging regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.000 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +0.74 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,268 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NEUTRAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Neutral. Sample N=9,268 days since 1989-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
HK is the primary China gold arbitrage conduit. Complements a sibling signal (US to UK exports).
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.000 placing the dot inside the Neutral band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 0.74 percent, median plus 0.04 percent, across 9,208 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HK imports surging | +1 | 15.7% (1455 d) | +1.65% | +0.91pp | Jan 2026, Jun 2025, Nov 2024 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 73.3% (6797 d) | +0.64% | -0.10pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2025, Mar 2025 | |
| HK imports weak | -1 | 11.0% (1016 d) | +0.07% | -0.67pp | Mar 2026, Dec 2024, Jun 2023 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
10 state transitions from 12/02/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (66 total transitions since 12/12/1989) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | 12/02/2024 | 03/28/2025 | 81d | -1.57% |
| Neutral | 03/31/2025 | 05/30/2025 | 43d | +9.38% |
| Expansion | 06/02/2025 | 08/26/2025 | 60d | +9.10% |
| Neutral | 08/27/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 88d | +0.91% |
| Expansion | 01/02/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 39d | -4.81% |
| -2 | 03/02/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 22d | +9.34% |
| Defensive | 04/01/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 21d | +13.09% |
| -2 | 05/01/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 20d | +1.22% |
| Defensive | 06/01/2026 | 10/26/2026 | 103d | +0.99% |
| Neutral LIVE | 10/27/2026 | current | 9d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
HK is the primary China gold arbitrage conduit. Complements a sibling signal (US to UK exports). The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
HK is the primary China gold arbitrage conduit. Complements a sibling signal (US to UK exports).
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:31 PM ET