GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z11101 – GC HY OAS Z
Credit spreads widening = flight to safety = gold benefits. 2008/2015/2020/2022 all confirmed. Fills PM-MAC-8 RED hole.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.957
GC HY OAS Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Extreme POS
29 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals hy oas wide (credit stress); negative equals hy oas tight (credit calm)
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Credit spreads widening = flight to safety = gold benefits. 2008/2015/2020/2022 all confirmed. Fills PM-MAC-8 RED hole. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 hy oas wide (credit stress) state has returned on average plus 0.82 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 hy oas tight (credit calm) state has returned on average plus 1.23 percent. Today the composite reads +0.957, in Extreme POS territory.
LIVE CHART
GC HY OAS Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks hy oas tight (credit calm) regime. The pale green band marks hy oas wide (credit stress) regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.957 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.04 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,024 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Extreme POS. Sample N=9,024 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Credit spreads widening = flight to safety = gold benefits. 2008/2015/2020/2022 all confirmed. Fills PM-MAC-8 RED hole.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.957 placing the dot inside the Extreme POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.04 percent, median plus 0.53 percent, across 7,306 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HY OAS wide (credit stress) TODAY | +1 | 30.8% (2272 d) | +0.82% | -0.22pp | Sep 2026, Mar 2026, Nov 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 37.1% (2736 d) | +1.07% | +0.02pp | Jun 2026, Apr 2026, Feb 2026 | |
| HY OAS tight (credit calm) | -1 | 32.0% (2358 d) | +1.23% | +0.18pp | May 2026, Jan 2026, Jun 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
14 state transitions from 12/30/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (217 total transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 12/30/2024 | 03/13/2025 | 51d | -3.59% |
| Expansion | 03/14/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 50d | +7.16% |
| Neutral | 05/27/2025 | 06/06/2025 | 9d | +7.51% |
| Defensive | 06/09/2025 | 09/04/2025 | 61d | +8.24% |
| Neutral | 09/05/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 46d | +5.10% |
| Expansion | 11/10/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 24d | +1.35% |
| Neutral | 12/15/2025 | 01/16/2026 | 23d | -2.71% |
| Defensive | 01/20/2026 | 02/06/2026 | 14d | +3.55% |
| Neutral | 02/09/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 14d | +5.75% |
| Expansion | 03/02/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 39d | +9.34% |
| Neutral | 04/27/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 13d | +3.22% |
| Defensive | 05/14/2026 | 06/24/2026 | 28d | +2.99% |
| Neutral | 06/25/2026 | 09/28/2026 | 66d | +5.34% |
| Expansion LIVE | 09/29/2026 | current | 29d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Credit spreads widening = flight to safety = gold benefits. 2008/2015/2020/2022 all confirmed. Fills PM-MAC-8 RED hole. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Credit spreads widening = flight to safety = gold benefits. 2008/2015/2020/2022 all confirmed. Fills PM-MAC-8 RED hole.
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:32 PM ET