GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z11111 – GC GLD Tonnes Flow Z
GLD is the largest gold ETF and its holdings reflect institutional demand net of redemptions. Unlike price ratios which encode expectations, physical tonnage is the flow itself.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.400
GC GLD Tonnes Flow Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
3 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals etf physical accumulation; negative equals etf physical redemption
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
GLD is the largest gold ETF and its holdings reflect institutional demand net of redemptions. Unlike price ratios which encode expectations, physical tonnage is the flow itself. Rising tonnage means authorized participants are creating shares – real demand. Falling tonnage means redemptions. change captures medium-term flow momentum. Fires strongly in institutional-driven gold-bull windows (2019-2020 pandemic accumulation, 2024-2025 central-bank + ETF re-accumulation). Third orthogonal CHASE Z designed for GC v0.6.8 direction-conditional composite. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 etf physical accumulation state has returned on average plus 2.11 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 etf physical redemption state has returned on average plus 1.23 percent. Today the composite reads -0.400, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
GC GLD Tonnes Flow Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks etf physical redemption regime. The pale green band marks etf physical accumulation regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.400 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.39 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,024 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate NEG. Sample N=9,024 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
GLD is the largest gold ETF and its holdings reflect institutional demand net of redemptions. Unlike price ratios which encode expectations, physical tonnage is the flow itself. Rising tonnage means authorized participants are creating shares – real demand.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.400 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.39 percent, median plus 1.18 percent, across 5,381 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETF physical accumulation | +1 | 26.9% (1461 d) | +2.11% | +0.72pp | Aug 2026, Dec 2025, Aug 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 29.3% (1592 d) | +0.99% | -0.40pp | Nov 2026, Oct 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| ETF physical redemption TODAY | -1 | 43.9% (2388 d) | +1.23% | -0.16pp | Nov 2026, Oct 2026, Mar 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
26 state transitions from 11/15/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (178 total transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/15/2024 | 11/29/2024 | 10d | +4.09% |
| Expansion | 12/02/2024 | 12/03/2024 | 2d | -1.57% |
| Neutral | 12/04/2024 | 12/17/2024 | 10d | -5.07% |
| Defensive | 12/18/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 3d | -4.31% |
| Neutral | 12/23/2024 | 12/24/2024 | 2d | -5.16% |
| Defensive | 12/26/2024 | 01/07/2025 | 8d | -4.30% |
| Neutral | 01/08/2025 | 01/16/2025 | 7d | -14.29% |
| Expansion | 01/17/2025 | 01/22/2025 | 3d | -10.04% |
| Neutral | 01/23/2025 | 01/24/2025 | 2d | -15.72% |
| Defensive | 01/27/2025 | 01/30/2025 | 4d | -10.67% |
| Neutral | 01/31/2025 | 02/18/2025 | 12d | -7.89% |
| Expansion | 02/19/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 66d | -3.67% |
| Neutral | 05/23/2025 | 07/15/2025 | 35d | +10.19% |
| Expansion | 07/16/2025 | 08/22/2025 | 28d | +7.52% |
| Neutral | 08/25/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 4d | +2.74% |
| Expansion | 08/29/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 79d | +3.67% |
| Neutral | 12/22/2025 | 12/24/2025 | 3d | -5.29% |
| Expansion | 12/26/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 47d | -4.85% |
| Neutral | 03/06/2026 | 03/19/2026 | 10d | +12.97% |
| Defensive | 03/20/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 97d | +15.69% |
| Neutral | 08/10/2026 | 08/19/2026 | 8d | -2.42% |
| Expansion | 08/20/2026 | 10/22/2026 | 45d | ongoing |
| Neutral | 10/23/2026 | 10/26/2026 | 2d | ongoing |
| Defensive | 10/27/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 4d | ongoing |
| Neutral | 11/02/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 2d | ongoing |
| Defensive LIVE | 11/04/2026 | current | 3d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
GLD is the largest gold ETF and its holdings reflect institutional demand net of redemptions. Unlike price ratios which encode expectations, physical tonnage is the flow itself. Rising tonnage means authorized participants are creating shares – real demand. Falling tonnage means redemptions. change captures medium-term flow momentum. Fires strongly in institutional-driven gold-bull windows (2019-2020 pandemic accumulation, 2024-2025 central-bank + ETF re-accumulation). Third orthogonal CHASE Z designed for GC v0.6.8 direction-conditional composite. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
GLD is the largest gold ETF and its holdings reflect institutional demand net of redemptions. Unlike price ratios which encode expectations, physical tonnage is the flow itself. Rising tonnage means authorized participants are creating shares – real demand. Falling tonnage means redemptions. change captures medium-term flow momentum. Fires strongly in institutional-driven gold-bull windows (2019-2020 pandemic accumulation, 2024-2025 central-bank + ETF re-accumulation). Third orthogonal CHASE Z designed for GC v0.6.8 direction-conditional composite.
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:32 PM ET