GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z11120 – GC BMSI IC-Weighted Z
Primary Bond Stress composite (IC-weighted 7 families). Highest-IC broad stress index. Bond Stress family IC vs SPX at h=60: +0.194. Cross-asset stress transmission signal.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.182
GC BMSI IC-Weighted Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
93 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals bmsi composite bullish; negative equals bmsi composite bearish
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Primary Bond Stress composite (IC-weighted 7 families). Highest-IC broad stress index. Bond Stress family IC vs SPX at h=60: +0.194. Cross-asset stress transmission signal. bond volatility often leads gold safe-haven bid or dollar strengthening depending on regime. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 bmsi composite bullish state has returned on average plus 0.15 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 bmsi composite bearish state has returned on average plus 1.80 percent. Today the composite reads +0.182, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
GC BMSI IC-Weighted Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks bmsi composite bearish regime. The pale green band marks bmsi composite bullish regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.182 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +0.78 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,024 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal. Sample N=9,024 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Primary Bond Stress composite (IC-weighted 7 families). Highest-IC broad stress index. Bond Stress family IC vs SPX at h=60: +0.194. Cross-asset stress transmission signal. bond volatility often leads gold safe-haven bid or dollar strengthening depending on regime.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.182 placing the dot inside the Normal band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 0.78 percent, median plus 0.09 percent, across 8,964 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMSI composite bullish | +1 | 66.5% (6004 d) | +0.15% | -0.64pp | Mar 2026, Feb 2026, Feb 2026 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 20.6% (1859 d) | +2.25% | +1.47pp | Jun 2026, Feb 2026, Feb 2026 | |
| BMSI composite bearish | -1 | 12.9% (1161 d) | +1.80% | +1.02pp | Nov 2025, Aug 2025, Jul 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/05/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 365d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Primary Bond Stress composite (IC-weighted 7 families). Highest-IC broad stress index. Bond Stress family IC vs SPX at h=60: +0.194. Cross-asset stress transmission signal. bond volatility often leads gold safe-haven bid or dollar strengthening depending on regime. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Primary Bond Stress composite (IC-weighted 7 families). Highest-IC broad stress index. Bond Stress family IC vs SPX at h=60: +0.194. Cross-asset stress transmission signal. bond volatility often leads gold safe-haven bid or dollar strengthening depending on regime.
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:32 PM ET