GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z1153 – GC GDELT Multi-Country Event Cluster
Gold rallies on discrete geopolitical event clusters, not the slow drift of weighted-average tone. Existing GC scripts all use continuous the data source patterns.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.908
GC GDELT Multi-Country Event Cluster composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate GEO Calm
13 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals global event cluster active; negative equals global event cluster quiet
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Gold rallies on discrete geopolitical event clusters, not the slow drift of weighted-average tone. Existing GC scripts all use continuous the data source patterns. None count simultaneous multi-country flares. Captures 2014 Russia-Ukraine, 2019 Soleimani strike, 2022 Russia invasion, 2023 Israel-Hamas, 2024 Iran-Israel direct exchange. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 global event cluster active state has returned on average plus 1.50 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 global event cluster quiet state has returned on average plus 0.65 percent. Today the composite reads -0.908, in Moderate GEO Calm territory.
LIVE CHART
GC GDELT Multi-Country Event Cluster: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks global event cluster quiet regime. The pale green band marks global event cluster active regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.908 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.38 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,025 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Geo Calm
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate GEO Calm. Sample N=9,025 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Gold rallies on discrete geopolitical event clusters, not the slow drift of weighted-average tone. Existing GC scripts all use continuous the data source patterns. None count simultaneous multi-country flares.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.908 placing the dot inside the Moderate GEO Calm band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.38 percent, median plus 0.92 percent, across 3,348 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global event cluster active | +1 | 48.2% (1643 d) | +1.50% | +0.12pp | Sep 2026, Jun 2026, Mar 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 16.1% (550 d) | +2.67% | +1.28pp | Sep 2026, Jul 2026, May 2026 | |
| Global event cluster quiet TODAY | -1 | 35.7% (1215 d) | +0.65% | -0.74pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Jul 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 366d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Gold rallies on discrete geopolitical event clusters, not the slow drift of weighted-average tone. Existing GC scripts all use continuous the data source patterns. None count simultaneous multi-country flares. Captures 2014 Russia-Ukraine, 2019 Soleimani strike, 2022 Russia invasion, 2023 Israel-Hamas, 2024 Iran-Israel direct exchange. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Gold rallies on discrete geopolitical event clusters, not the slow drift of weighted-average tone. Existing GC scripts all use continuous the data source patterns. None count simultaneous multi-country flares. Captures 2014 Russia-Ukraine, 2019 Soleimani strike, 2022 Russia invasion, 2023 Israel-Hamas, 2024 Iran-Israel direct exchange.
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:31 PM ET