BO · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z1263 – BO Ukraine Sunoil Exports YoY
Ukraine + Russia control ~75% global sunflower oil exports; war/sanctions disrupt to BO substitution premium.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.482
BO Ukraine Sunoil Exports YoY composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate POS
290 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals ukraine sunoil exports surging; negative equals ukraine sunoil exports…
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Ukraine + Russia control ~75% global sunflower oil exports; war/sanctions disrupt to BO substitution premium. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 ukraine sunoil exports surging state has returned on average plus 0.50 percent forward 60-day soybean-oil return. Phase -1 ukraine sunoil exports weak state has returned on average plus 0.21 percent. Today the composite reads +0.482, in Moderate POS territory.
LIVE CHART
BO Ukraine Sunoil Exports YoY: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks ukraine sunoil exports weak regime. The pale green band marks ukraine sunoil exports surging regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is CBOT soybean-oil continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per pound.
COMPOSITE
+0.482 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.54 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate POS. Sample N=9,049 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Ukraine + Russia control ~75% global sunflower oil exports; war/sanctions disrupt to BO substitution premium.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.482 placing the dot inside the Moderate POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day soybean-oil returns and sample share
Baseline soybean-oil forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.54 percent, median plus 0.24 percent, across 8,989 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine sunoil exports surging TODAY | +1 | 48.5% (4393 d) | +1.10% | -0.44pp | Sep 2025, Sep 2021, Sep 2018 | |
| Normal | 0 | 18.0% (1631 d) | +3.30% | +1.76pp | Sep 2020, Sep 2019, Sep 2017 | |
| Ukraine sunoil exports weak | -1 | 33.4% (3025 d) | +1.22% | -0.32pp | Sep 2023, Aug 2020, Sep 2017 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 366d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Ukraine + Russia control ~75% global sunflower oil exports; war/sanctions disrupt to BO substitution premium. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Ukraine + Russia control ~75% global sunflower oil exports; war/sanctions disrupt to BO substitution premium.
The signal flags the current soybean-oil regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 05:48 PM ET