GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z13111 – GC SI-Metals Jump Share Dominant Regime Gauge
the data source (the data source 2026-06-21) established that GC and SI carry the data source = 0.190 and 0.185 respectively vs 53-market universe median ~0.11 – metals are the extreme right-tail.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.613
GC SI-Metals Jump Share Dominant Regime Gauge composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Jump Dominant Strong
185 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals metals jump-share dominant; negative equals metals jump-share muted
Sample
25 years
Live since 2001-02
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
the data source (the data source 2026-06-21) established that GC and SI carry the data source = 0. 190 and 0.185 respectively vs 53-market universe median ~0.11 – metals are the extreme right-tail. Diffusion-only stochastic-vol pricing systematically under-values short-dated OTM metals options; every metals crisis window (2008-Q4, 2011-08, 2020-03, 2022-02) has produced non-recoverable gamma losses for pure-diffusion desks. This Z tracks whether the jump-dominant regime is intact so short-vega positioning can size regime-conditionally. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 25 years Phase +1 metals jump-share dominant state has returned on average minus 0.44 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 metals jump-share muted state has returned on average plus 3.32 percent. Today the composite reads +0.613, in Jump Dominant Strong territory.
LIVE CHART
GC SI-Metals Jump Share Dominant Regime Gauge: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks metals jump-share muted regime. The pale green band marks metals jump-share dominant regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.613 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.27 percent)
SAMPLE N
6,460 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Jump Dominant Strong
STATE AND HISTORY
Jump Dominant Strong. Sample N=6,460 days since 2001-02.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
the data source (the data source 2026-06-21) established that GC and SI carry the data source = 0.190 and 0.185 respectively vs 53-market universe median ~0.11 – metals are the extreme right-tail.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.613 placing the dot inside the Jump Dominant Strong band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.27 percent, median plus 0.94 percent, across 6,400 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metals jump-share dominant TODAY | +1 | 20.6% (1333 d) | -0.43% | -1.69pp | Feb 2026, Jan 2024, Sep 2023 | |
| Normal | 0 | 68.0% (4394 d) | +1.41% | +0.15pp | Feb 2026, Nov 2025, Jun 2025 | |
| Metals jump-share muted | -1 | 11.3% (733 d) | +3.32% | +2.06pp | Dec 2025, Aug 2025, Jun 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 366d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
the data source (the data source 2026-06-21) established that GC and SI carry the data source = 0.190 and 0.185 respectively vs 53-market universe median ~0.11 – metals are the extreme right-tail. Diffusion-only stochastic-vol pricing systematically under-values short-dated OTM metals options; every metals crisis window (2008-Q4, 2011-08, 2020-03, 2022-02) has produced non-recoverable gamma losses for pure-diffusion desks. This Z tracks whether the jump-dominant regime is intact so short-vega positioning can size regime-conditionally. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
the data source (the data source 2026-06-21) established that GC and SI carry the data source = 0.190 and 0.185 respectively vs 53-market universe median ~0.11 – metals are the extreme right-tail. Diffusion-only stochastic-vol pricing systematically under-values short-dated OTM metals options; every metals crisis window (2008-Q4, 2011-08, 2020-03, 2022-02) has produced non-recoverable gamma losses for pure-diffusion desks. This Z tracks whether the jump-dominant regime is intact so short-vega positioning can size regime-conditionally.
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 25 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:31 PM ET