BO · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z13140 – BO BOCPD Regime-Change Probability
The BO BOCPD Regime-Change Probability signal captures a distinct soybean-oil market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a -bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.281
BO BOCPD Regime-Change Probability composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate POS
30 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals regime-change probability high; negative equals regime-change probability…
Sample
38 years
Live since 1988-12
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The BO BOCPD Regime-Change Probability signal captures a distinct soybean-oil market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a -bounded composite between minus one and plus one. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 38 years Phase +1 regime-change probability high state has returned on average plus 0.47 percent forward 60-day soybean-oil return. Phase -1 regime-change probability low state has returned on average plus 0.92 percent. Today the composite reads +0.281, in Moderate POS territory.
LIVE CHART
BO BOCPD Regime-Change Probability: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks regime-change probability low regime. The pale green band marks regime-change probability high regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is CBOT soybean-oil continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per pound.
COMPOSITE
+0.281 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.47 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,553 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate POS. Sample N=9,553 days since 1988-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The BO BOCPD Regime-Change Probability signal captures a distinct soybean-oil market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.281 placing the dot inside the Moderate POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day soybean-oil returns and sample share
Baseline soybean-oil forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.47 percent, median plus 0.22 percent, across 9,179 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime-change probability high | +1 | 27.3% (2525 d) | +1.31% | -0.16pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 57.2% (5288 d) | +1.51% | +0.04pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| Regime-change probability low | -1 | 15.4% (1426 d) | +1.59% | +0.12pp | Mar 2026, Oct 2025, Apr 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 366d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The BO BOCPD Regime-Change Probability signal captures a distinct soybean-oil market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a -bounded composite between minus one and plus one. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
The BO BOCPD Regime-Change Probability signal captures a distinct soybean-oil market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
The signal flags the current soybean-oil regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 38 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 05:48 PM ET