GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z2414 – GC CFTC Gold YoY
Wave-45: crowded positioning at YoY extremes mean-reverts. Speculator positioning is a contra-indicator at extremes.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.139
GC CFTC Gold YoY composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
7 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals cftc positioning yoy surge; negative equals cftc positioning yoy…
Sample
20 years
Live since 2006-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Wave-45: crowded positioning at YoY extremes mean-reverts. Speculator positioning is a contra-indicator at extremes. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 20 years Phase +1 cftc positioning yoy surge state has returned on average plus 1.85 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 cftc positioning yoy contraction state has returned on average plus 1.03 percent. Today the composite reads +0.139, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
GC CFTC Gold YoY: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks cftc positioning yoy contraction regime. The pale green band marks cftc positioning yoy surge regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.139 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +2.55 percent)
SAMPLE N
5,023 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal. Sample N=5,023 days since 2006-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Wave-45: crowded positioning at YoY extremes mean-reverts. Speculator positioning is a contra-indicator at extremes.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.139 placing the dot inside the Normal band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.55 percent, median plus 2.10 percent, across 4,963 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC positioning YoY surge | +1 | 45.1% (2267 d) | +3.22% | +0.68pp | Sep 2026, Jul 2026, Jun 2026 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 18.0% (903 d) | +1.98% | -0.56pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| CFTC positioning YoY contraction | -1 | 36.9% (1853 d) | +1.99% | -0.56pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Jan 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 366d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Wave-45: crowded positioning at YoY extremes mean-reverts. Speculator positioning is a contra-indicator at extremes. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Wave-45: crowded positioning at YoY extremes mean-reverts. Speculator positioning is a contra-indicator at extremes.
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 20 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:31 PM ET