SB SPECIALIST · Softs / Brazil Supply
Z3120 – [SB] CHIRPS Brazil Center-South Precipitation Signal
Monsoon moisture over Brazil Center-South cane belt determines cane yield and transmits precipitation regimes to Sugar No. 11 futures at 60-day horizons via the primary global supply channel.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR OCT
Current reading
-1.000
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR OCT
Off-season composite tracks residual soil-moisture carry; Brazil Center-South cane window…
Signal state
Precip Above Trend
7 days in Neutral phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
CHIRPS daily release
Sample
26-year window
Daily cadence; 2000 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW OCT-APR BRAZIL CENTER-SOUTH CANE MONSOON WINDOW
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Brazil Center-South produces approximately 90 percent of Brazilian sugar and roughly 40 percent of global sugar exports. The Center-South cane belt spans São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná with the primary cane-development window running October through April. Monsoon moisture across this window determines cane yield and total recoverable sugar (ATR) per tonne. The CHIRPS satellite-rain-gauge product captures daily precipitation over the belt with multi-decade history. Daily Spearman IC against Sugar No. 11 forward 60-day returns is plus 0.095 at p-value 8.8e-15 across 6,675 observations, strongly significant on the 26-year sample. Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers plus 1.26 percent fwd60d on 7 percent small-sample share; Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers minus 1.63 percent on 32 percent sample. 2.89 pp Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread.
LIVE CHART
SB CHIRPS Brazil Center-South Precipitation Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the CHIRPS daily precipitation anomaly over Brazil Center-South cane belt, inverted so deficit reads positive composite, and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means rainfall below trend; negative composite means above. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Sugar No. 11 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Sugar forward 60-day returns.
CHART PLACEHOLDER
Live chart renders here once the Node.js data layer is wired. Until then this slot shows a static placeholder.
COMPOSITE
-1.000 / tanh
STATE
Precip Above Trend
PHASE
-4.59
PHASE +1 EDGE
via Brazil deficit
PHASE -1 EDGE
benign supply
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Precip Above Trend firing at composite -1.000, 7 trading days running in Neutral phase. Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers plus 1.26 percent fwd60d. Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers minus 1.63 percent fwd60d. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.095 at p-value 8.8e-15 strongly significant.
THE SUPPLY MECHANISM
Brazil Center-South produces 90 percent of Brazilian sugar and 40 percent of global sugar exports. Cane yield and recoverable sugar depend on Oct-Apr monsoon moisture. Below- trend precipitation compresses yields materially; Brazil is the world’s largest sugar producer so Brazilian shortfalls tighten global supply balance.
HOW TO POSITION
Brazilian supply overlay for Sugar via Center-South monsoon channel. Precip Deficit firings flag bullish supply-shock setups via Brazilian yield compression. Precip Above Trend firings flag bearish regimes. Pair with CFTC positioning, BRL FX, ethanol parity, and Thailand supply.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -1.000 in the Precip Above Trend band. CHIRPS daily rainfall over Brazil Center-South has run materially above the rolling mean through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -1.000 State Precip Above Trend, 7 days running in Neutral phase.
- CHIRPS Brazil CS rainfall above trend Raw z-score -4.59; CHIRPS daily rainfall over Brazil Center-South has run materially above trend through late 2026.
- Daily IC strongly significant, monotone pattern Daily Spearman IC plus 0.095 at p-value 8.8e-15 strongly significant. Monotone phase pattern with 2.89 pp Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE SUPPLY CALL
Composite -1.000, Precip Above Trend. CHIRPS over Brazil Center-South shows rainfall running above the rolling mean through late 2026 consistent with benign Brazilian supply regime. Signal firing in Precip Above Trend bucket for 7 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase -1 historically runs minus 1.63 percent below baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.095 at p-value 8.8e-15 strongly significant on 26-year sample. Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers plus 1.26 percent fwd60d on 7 percent small-sample share; Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers minus 1.63 percent fwd60d on 32 percent sample. 2.89 pp Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread. Monotone pattern.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling sign-consistent but not independently significant. Signal most actionable during Oct-Apr monsoon window; off-season composite reflects residual moisture. Phase +1 sample is small (7 percent); edge measurement has higher uncertainty on the bullish tail than the bearish side.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,675 post-warmup trading days (2000 onward). Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers +1.26 percent fwd60d on 7 percent share; Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers -1.63 percent fwd60d on 32 percent sample. Monotone pattern.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precip Deficit | +1 | 6.8% (610 d) | +1.00% | -0.73pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2025, Oct 2024 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 61.1% (5505 d) | +4.06% | +2.33pp | Oct 2026, Apr 2026, Dec 2025 | |
| Precip Above Trend TODAY | -1 | 32.1% (2893 d) | -2.54% | -4.27pp | Oct 2026, Dec 2025, Nov 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of CHIRPS daily precipitation over Brazil Center-South cane belt on a rolling window, inverted so deficit reads positive composite, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals rainfall below trend equals bullish SB via Brazilian supply stress. Target ICE US Sugar No. 11 first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why Brazil Center-South matters
Brazil Center-South produces roughly 90 percent of Brazilian sugar and 40 percent of global sugar exports. The belt spans São Paulo (dominant), Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná. The primary cane-development window runs October through April during the Southern Hemisphere monsoon season. Moisture during this window determines cane yield and total recoverable sugar (ATR) per tonne crushed. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar producer and exporter so Center-South precipitation anomalies transmit directly to global supply balance and Sugar No. 11 futures at 60-day horizons.
How to use this signal today
Brazilian supply overlay for Sugar via the Center-South monsoon channel. Precip Deficit firings flag bullish supply-shock setups via Brazilian yield compression and reduced ATR. Precip Above Trend firings flag bearish regimes where abundant moisture supports strong cane yields. Pair with CFTC positioning, BRL FX competitiveness, crude-ethanol parity (cane-to- ethanol vs sugar trade-off), and Thai supply for stacked global sugar conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant on 26-year sample but non-overlap test sign-consistent and not independently significant. Signal most actionable during Oct-Apr Southern Hemisphere monsoon window; off-season composite reflects residual moisture through the May-November crush season. Phase +1 sample is small (7 percent) which increases edge-measurement uncertainty on the bullish tail. Frost events (May-August) are a separate compound-stress channel not captured by precipitation anomaly alone.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 10:00 AM ET