SB SPECIALIST · Softs / Positioning
Z3116 – [SB] CFTC Speculator Positioning Signal
Crowded Sugar speculator positioning marks sentiment peaks and troughs that drive contrarian mean-reversion to Sugar No. 11 futures at 60-day horizons via the positioning channel; CFTC CoT captures the crowding.
At a glance
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Current reading
-0.755
SEASONAL STATE
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Signal is continuous; no post-season state.
Signal state
Moderate NEG
46 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
CFTC Tuesday weekly release
Sample
26-year window
Weekly cadence; 2000 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW CFTC WEEKLY COT RELEASE WINDOW
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report publishes weekly speculator positioning data in ICE US Sugar No. 11 futures. Non-commercial (speculator) net long positioning as a z-score captures sentiment crowding regimes. The empirical pattern in Sugar is contrarian with negative daily IC; extreme long positioning historically marks peak bullish sentiment with subsequent mean reversion, while extreme short positioning marks cycle-low sentiment with subsequent short-covering recovery. Daily Spearman IC against Sugar No. 11 forward 60-day returns is minus 0.123 at p-value 4.6e-24 across 6,675 observations, strongly significant on the 26-year sample. Phase +1 (Extreme Net Long) delivers minus 0.74 percent fwd60d; Phase -1 (Extreme Net Short) delivers plus 2.03 percent. 2.77 pp contrarian spread with Phase 0 Flat Positioning as majority 13 percent informative middle bucket.
LIVE CHART
SB CFTC Speculator Positioning Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the CFTC non-commercial speculator net long positioning z-score in Sugar No. 11 futures, tanh-bounded. Positive composite means crowded net long positioning; negative composite means crowded net short positioning. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Sugar No. 11 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Sugar forward 60-day returns.
CHART PLACEHOLDER
Live chart renders here once the Node.js data layer is wired. Until then this slot shows a static placeholder.
COMPOSITE
-0.755 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-0.98
PHASE +1 EDGE
contrarian peak
PHASE -1 EDGE
short-cover base
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Extreme Net Short firing at composite -0.755, 46 trading days running in Neutral phase. Phase +1 (Extreme Net Long) delivers minus 0.74 percent fwd60d via contrarian mean reversion. Phase -1 (Extreme Net Short) delivers plus 2.03 percent fwd60d. Daily Spearman IC minus 0.123 at p-value 4.6e-24 strongly significant.
THE POSITIONING MECHANISM
CFTC Commitments of Traders captures speculator positioning in Sugar No. 11 futures. Z-score of non-commercial net long positioning tracks sentiment crowding regimes. The empirical pattern is contrarian; crowded long positioning marks bullish-sentiment peaks with subsequent mean reversion, and crowded short positioning marks cycle-low sentiment with short-covering recovery.
HOW TO POSITION
Positioning overlay for Sugar via CFTC speculator net long channel. Extreme Net Long firings historically mark sentiment peaks via contrarian mean reversion. Extreme Net Short firings mark cycle-low sentiment via short-covering recovery. Pair with Brazil CHIRPS, carry, ethanol parity, and ICE Europe white sugar positioning.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.755 in the Extreme Net Short band. CFTC non-commercial net long positioning has run below trend through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.755 State Extreme Net Short, 46 days running in Neutral phase.
- CFTC spec net short extreme Raw z-score -0.98; CFTC non-commercial net long positioning in Sugar has run below trend into Extreme Net Short territory through late 2026.
- Daily IC strongly significant, contrarian polarity Daily Spearman IC minus 0.123 at p-value 4.6e-24 strongly significant. Negative IC; extremes historically mark sentiment peaks with subsequent mean reversion.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE POSITIONING CALL
Composite -0.755, Extreme Net Short. CFTC non-commercial net long positioning has run below trend through late 2026 consistent with crowded short sentiment. Signal firing in Extreme Net Short bucket for 46 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase -1 historically runs plus 2.03 percent above baseline via short-covering recovery.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC minus 0.123 at p-value 4.6e-24 strongly significant on 26-year sample with contrarian polarity. Phase +1 (Extreme Net Long) delivers minus 0.74 percent fwd60d via mean reversion. Phase -1 (Extreme Net Short) delivers plus 2.03 percent fwd60d via short- covering. 2.77 pp contrarian spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling sign-consistent but not independently significant. CFTC weekly cadence with 3-day lag (Tuesday data released Friday). Contrarian polarity means positioning extremes mark sentiment peaks rather than forward directional regimes.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,675 post-warmup trading days (2000 onward). Signal is empirically contrarian; positioning extremes mark sentiment peaks with mean reversion.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Net Long | +1 | 42.8% (3852 d) | +0.79% | -0.94pp | Oct 2024, Apr 2024, Dec 2023 | |
| Flat Positioning | 0 | 15.8% (1423 d) | +0.57% | -1.16pp | Aug 2026, Oct 2024, Apr 2024 | |
| Extreme Net Short TODAY | -1 | 41.4% (3733 d) | +3.16% | +1.43pp | Sep 2026, Nov 2022, Oct 2022 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of CFTC non-commercial speculator net long positioning in ICE US Sugar No. 11 futures, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals crowded net long positioning. Signal empirically contrarian on Sugar forward 60-day returns. Target ICE US Sugar No. 11 first- nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why Sugar positioning matters
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report publishes weekly speculator positioning data in ICE US Sugar No. 11 futures. Non-commercial speculator net long positioning as a z-score captures sentiment crowding regimes. The empirical pattern in Sugar is contrarian; historically crowded long positioning marks bullish-sentiment peaks and crowded short positioning marks bearish-sentiment lows. Daily IC is negative at minus 0.123 strongly significant on 26-year sample confirming the contrarian structure.
How to use this signal today
Positioning overlay for Sugar via the CFTC speculator net long channel. Extreme Net Long firings historically mark peak bullish sentiment with subsequent mean reversion (2016 cycle high, 2010-11 peak as benchmarks). Extreme Net Short firings mark cycle-low sentiment with subsequent short-covering recovery (2020 COVID trough as benchmark). Pair with Brazil CHIRPS supply, Sugar carry, crude-ethanol parity, and ICE Europe white sugar positioning for stacked conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant with contrarian polarity on 26-year sample. CFTC weekly cadence with 3-day publication lag (Tuesday data released Friday). Contrarian polarity means extreme positioning marks sentiment peaks not forward directional regimes; use for regime-positioning identification alongside exogenous Brazilian supply, term structure, and ethanol-parity signals.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:31 PM ET