CT SPECIALIST · Softs / US Phenology
Z32382 – [CT] NASS Pct Setting Bolls Z Signal
Delayed boll setting across the US cotton crop signals phenology stress during the critical yield-determination window and transmits to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons via the growing-cycle channel.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUL
Current reading
+0.762
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUL
US cotton boll-setting window runs July through September; off-season composite ffills…
Signal state
Delayed Pace
41 days in Neutral phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
USDA NASS weekly release
Sample
26-year window
Weekly cadence; 2000 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW JUL-SEP US COTTON BOLL-SETTING WINDOW
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
USDA NASS Crop Progress reports publish weekly estimates of US cotton setting bolls percent complete during the July through September yield-determination window. Setting bolls is the stage after flowering when cotton plants form the physical bolls that mature into harvested lint; the pace of boll-setting progress against a 3-year seasonal baseline signals whether the US crop is tracking stressed or on-trend. The signal is negated so delayed pace reads positive composite. Phase pattern is non-monotone per parquet-grounded regime table. Phase 0 (On Trend pace) delivers -24.65 percent fwd60d, edge -19.73 pp relative to baseline. Phase +1 (Delayed Pace, 14.1% sample) delivers +3.38 percent, edge +8.30 pp. Phase -1 (Early Pace, 56.6% sample) delivers +3.26 percent, edge +8.18 pp. Daily Spearman IC is minus 0.009 at p-value 0.47 across 6,676 observations, not individually significant. The signal functions as a Phase 0 bearish warning via the middle-regime anomaly.
LIVE CHART
CT NASS Pct Setting Bolls Z Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the USDA NASS US cotton setting bolls percent complete 3-year baseline z-score, negated so delayed pace reads positive composite, and tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Cotton forward 60-day returns.
CHART PLACEHOLDER
Live chart renders here once the Node.js data layer is wired. Until then this slot shows a static placeholder.
COMPOSITE
+0.762 / tanh
STATE
Delayed Pace
PHASE
+1.00
PHASE +1 EDGE
+8.30 pp
PHASE 0 EDGE
-19.73 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Delayed Pace firing at composite +0.762, 41 trading days running in Neutral phase. Phase +1 (Delayed) edge +8.30 pp. Phase 0 (On-Trend) edge -19.73 pp — the directionally informative regime. Phase -1 (Early) edge +8.18 pp. Daily Spearman IC minus 0.009 at p-value 0.47 not individually significant.
THE PHENOLOGY MECHANISM
Setting bolls is the stage after flowering when cotton plants form the physical bolls that mature into harvested lint. Pace relative to 3-year baseline signals whether US cotton development is tracking stressed (delayed), normal (on-trend), or accelerated (early). Non-monotone pattern suggests the signal concentrates information in the middle regime rather than the extremes.
HOW TO POSITION
Phenology overlay for Cotton via NASS boll-setting channel. On-Trend phase historically marks sharpest bearish regime. Delayed and Early phases near-baseline. Pair with NASS squaring pace, US Cotton Belt DSCI, USDA PSD production, India and China supply, and CFTC positioning.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.762 in the Delayed Pace band. USDA NASS US cotton setting bolls has run below trend pace through the 2026 growing season; Phase +1 near-baseline edge suggests limited directional information from this firing.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.762 State Delayed Pace, 41 days running in Neutral phase.
- NASS US cotton setting bolls below trend pace Raw z-score +1.00; USDA NASS US cotton setting bolls percent complete has run below trend pace through the 2026 growing season.
- Non-monotone phase pattern, Phase +1 near baseline Daily IC not individually significant. Phase +1 edge plus 3.38 percent near-baseline; directional information concentrates in Phase 0 On-Trend regime at minus 24.65 percent.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PHENOLOGY CALL
Composite +0.762, Delayed Pace. USDA NASS US cotton setting bolls has run below trend pace through the 2026 growing season. Signal firing in Delayed Pace bucket for 41 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase +1 historically runs near baseline at plus 3.38 percent.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC minus 0.009 at p-value 0.47 not individually significant on 26-year sample. Phase 0 (On-Trend) delivers edge -19.73 pp — the directionally informative bucket. Phase +1 (Delayed) edge +8.30 pp and Phase -1 (Early) edge +8.18 pp. Non-monotone pattern with directional information in the middle regime.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.003 at p-value 0.97 not independently significant. Signal is seasonal (July-September boll-setting window); off-season composite ffills. Pattern is highly non-monotone with Phase 0 (On-Trend) as the directionally informative regime. The current Phase +1 firing is near-baseline; this signal is not currently providing strong directional edge.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,676 post-warmup trading days (2000 onward). Phase 0 (On-Trend) is the directionally informative regime at -24.65 percent fwd60d. Phase +1 (Delayed) and Phase -1 (Early) both near-baseline. Non-monotone pattern.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delayed Pace TODAY | +1 | 14.1% (938 d) | +3.38% | +8.30pp | 2026 (current), 2018, 2011 | |
| On-Trend Pace | 0 | 29.4% (1961 d) | -24.65% | -19.73pp | 2019-20, 2014-15, 2008 | |
| Early Pace | -1 | 56.6% (3777 d) | +3.26% | +8.18pp | 2017, 2013, 2007 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of USDA NASS US cotton setting bolls percent complete against a 3-year seasonal baseline, negated so delayed pace reads positive composite, tanh-bounded. Target ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why boll-setting pace matters
USDA NASS Crop Progress publishes weekly US cotton setting bolls percent complete during the July-September window. Setting bolls is the stage after flowering when cotton plants form the physical bolls that mature into harvested lint; pace relative to the 3-year seasonal baseline reveals whether the US crop is tracking stressed, normal, or accelerated. The signal’s non-monotone phase pattern concentrates information in the Phase 0 On-Trend middle regime rather than the directional extremes.
How to use this signal today
Phenology overlay for Cotton via the NASS boll-setting channel. On-Trend Pace firings historically mark sharpest bearish regime. Delayed Pace and Early Pace firings both deliver near-baseline forward returns. Pair with NASS Squaring Pace, US Cotton Belt DSCI, USDA PSD production, India and China supply signals, and CFTC positioning. Use this signal as a Phase 0 bearish warning rather than symmetric directional overlay.
Risk overlay
Daily IC minus 0.009 at p-value 0.47 not individually significant on 26-year sample. Non-overlap IC plus 0.003 at p-value 0.97 not independently significant. Pattern is highly non-monotone with directionally informative regime being Phase 0 rather than extremes. The current Phase +1 Delayed Pace firing is near-baseline; signal is not currently providing strong directional edge. Treat as middle-regime bearish warning.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 10:00 AM ET