CT SPECIALIST · Softs / Positioning
Z3402 – [CT] CFTC Speculator Positioning Signal
CFTC non-commercial speculator net positioning z-score captures crowding regimes and transmits mean-reversion at extremes to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons via the positioning channel.
At a glance
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Current reading
+0.598
SEASONAL STATE
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Signal is continuous; no post-season state.
Signal state
Extreme POS
163 days in Healthy phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
CFTC Tuesday weekly release
Sample
26-year window
Weekly cadence; 2000 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW CFTC WEEKLY COT RELEASE WINDOW
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report publishes weekly speculator positioning data in Cotton futures. Non-commercial (speculator) net long positioning as a z-score captures crowding regimes; extreme long positioning historically marks peak bullish pricing with subsequent mean reversion, while extreme short positioning marks cycle-low positioning with subsequent short- covering recovery. Daily Spearman IC against Cotton forward 60-day returns is plus 0.043 at p-value 4.0e-04 across 6,676 observations, statistically significant on the 26-year sample. Phase +1 (Extreme Net Long) delivers plus 1.55 percent fwd60d on 37 percent sample; Phase -1 (Extreme Net Short) delivers minus 1.49 percent on 38 percent sample. Phase 0 (Flat) delivers minus 20.12 percent on 24 percent sample. The pattern is non-monotone with directionally informative information concentrated in Phase 0 bearish middle.
LIVE CHART
CT CFTC Speculator Positioning Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the CFTC non-commercial speculator net long positioning z-score in Cotton futures, tanh-bounded. Positive composite means crowded net long positioning; negative composite means crowded net short positioning. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Cotton forward 60-day returns.
CHART PLACEHOLDER
Live chart renders here once the Node.js data layer is wired. Until then this slot shows a static placeholder.
COMPOSITE
+0.598 / tanh
STATE
Extreme POS
PHASE
+0.69
PHASE +1 EDGE
near baseline
PHASE 0 EDGE
directionally informative
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Extreme Net Long firing at composite +0.598, 163 trading days running in Neutral phase. Phase +1 (Extreme Net Long) delivers plus 1.55 percent fwd60d near baseline. Phase -1 (Extreme Net Short) delivers minus 1.49 percent. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.043 at p-value 4.0e-04 statistically significant.
THE POSITIONING MECHANISM
CFTC Commitments of Traders captures speculator positioning in Cotton futures. Z-score of non-commercial net long positioning tracks crowding regimes. Historically Phase 0 (Flat Positioning) marks regime transitions with sharp bearish edge; the extremes deliver near- baseline forward returns on 60-day horizon.
HOW TO POSITION
Positioning overlay for Cotton via CFTC speculator net long channel. Phase 0 firings historically mark sharpest bearish regime via directional information in middle rather than extremes. Pair with ENSO La Nina, Vidarbha CHIRPS, USDA PSD, and term structure.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.598 in the Extreme Net Long band. CFTC non-commercial net long positioning has run above trend through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.598 State Extreme Net Long, 163 days running in Neutral phase.
- CFTC spec net long above trend Raw z-score +0.69; CFTC non-commercial net long positioning in Cotton has run above trend through late 2026.
- Daily IC statistically significant, non-monotone phase pattern Daily Spearman IC plus 0.043 at p-value 4.0e-04 statistically significant. Non-monotone pattern with directional information in Phase 0 Flat Positioning middle at minus 20.12 percent fwd60d.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE POSITIONING CALL
Composite +0.598, Extreme Net Long. CFTC non-commercial net long positioning has run above trend through late 2026 consistent with crowded long regime. Signal firing in Extreme Net Long bucket for 163 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase +1 historically runs plus 1.55 percent near baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.043 at p-value 4.0e-04 statistically significant on 26-year sample. Phase pattern non-monotone with directional information in Phase 0 Flat Positioning middle regime at minus 20.12 percent. Phase +1 and Phase -1 extreme buckets both near baseline.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling minus 0.031 at p-value 0.74 not independently significant. CFTC positioning is weekly cadence published Friday for Tuesday data. Pattern is non-monotone with Phase 0 as the informative regime rather than the extremes.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,676 post-warmup trading days (2000 onward). Phase pattern is non- monotone; directional information concentrates in Phase 0 Flat Positioning rather than extremes.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Net Long TODAY | +1 | 36.0% (3247 d) | +2.39% | +1.41pp | Mar 2026, Apr 2024, Jan 2024 | |
| Flat Positioning | 0 | 23.8% (2143 d) | +1.03% | +0.06pp | Mar 2026, Jan 2026, Jan 2026 | |
| Extreme Net Short | -1 | 40.2% (3623 d) | -0.30% | -1.28pp | Feb 2026, Jan 2026, Nov 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of CFTC non-commercial speculator net long positioning in Cotton futures, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals crowded net long positioning. Target ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why speculator positioning matters
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report publishes weekly speculator positioning data in Cotton futures. Non-commercial speculator net long positioning as a z-score captures crowding regimes; historically crowded long positioning marks bullish-sentiment peaks and crowded short positioning marks bearish-sentiment lows. The empirical pattern in Cotton shows directional information concentrating in Phase 0 Flat Positioning middle rather than the extremes; the extremes deliver near-baseline forward returns on 60-day horizon.
How to use this signal today
Positioning overlay for Cotton via the CFTC speculator net long channel. Phase 0 Flat Positioning firings historically mark sharpest bearish regime via directional information in middle rather than extremes. Phase +1 Extreme Net Long and Phase -1 Extreme Net Short firings both deliver near-baseline forward returns. Pair with ENSO La Nina, Vidarbha CHIRPS, USDA PSD, and term structure. Signal functions as Phase 0 bearish detector rather than symmetric contrarian overlay.
Risk overlay
Daily IC statistically significant on 26-year sample but non-overlap test minus 0.031 at p-value 0.74 not independently significant on 112 samples. CFTC weekly cadence (Tuesday data released Friday). Pattern is non-monotone with Phase 0 as the informative regime rather than the extremes; use for middle-regime bearish detection.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:02 PM ET