CT SPECIALIST · Softs / India Supply
Z3412 – [CT] CHIRPS India Vidarbha Precipitation Signal
Monsoon moisture over Vidarbha, the largest Indian cotton-growing belt, determines rainfed yield and transmits deficit regimes to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUN
Current reading
-0.473
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUN
India Vidarbha monsoon window runs June through September; off-season composite tracks…
Signal state
Precip Above Trend
28 days in Neutral phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
CHIRPS daily release
Sample
26-year window
Daily cadence; 2000 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW JUN-SEP INDIA VIDARBHA MONSOON WINDOW
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Vidarbha is the heart of India’s rainfed cotton belt. Maharashtra’s eastern cotton region depends on June-September monsoon rainfall rather than canal irrigation. When monsoon moisture runs below trend over Vidarbha, Indian cotton yields compress materially; India is the world’s largest cotton producer and shortfalls transmit to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons via tightened global supply balance. The CHIRPS satellite-rain-gauge product captures daily precipitation over the belt with multi-decade history. Daily Spearman IC against Cotton forward 60-day returns is plus 0.091 at p-value 8.4e-14 across 6,676 observations, strongly significant on the 26-year sample. The phase pattern is cleanly monotone with Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivering plus 6.06 percent fwd60d versus Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) at minus 11.42 percent.
LIVE CHART
CT CHIRPS India Vidarbha Precipitation Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the CHIRPS daily precipitation anomaly over India Vidarbha cotton belt, inverted so deficit reads positive composite, and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means rainfall below trend; negative composite means above. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Cotton forward 60-day returns.
CHART PLACEHOLDER
Live chart renders here once the Node.js data layer is wired. Until then this slot shows a static placeholder.
COMPOSITE
-0.473 / tanh
STATE
Precip Above Trend
PHASE
-0.63
PHASE +1 EDGE
+5.10 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-6.50 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Precip Above Trend firing at composite -0.473, 28 trading days running in Neutral phase. Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers plus 6.06 percent fwd60d. Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers minus 11.42 percent fwd60d. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.091 at p-value 8.4e-14 strongly significant.
THE SUPPLY MECHANISM
Vidarbha is Maharashtra’s eastern cotton belt and India’s largest rainfed cotton region. Monsoon rainfall determines yield; canal irrigation is minimal. Below-trend precipitation compresses yields materially; India is the world’s largest cotton producer so Indian shortfalls tighten global supply balance.
HOW TO POSITION
Indian supply overlay for Cotton via Vidarbha monsoon channel. Precip Deficit firings flag bullish supply-shock setups via Indian yield compression. Precip Above Trend firings flag bearish regimes where Indian supply loosens global balance. Pair with Gujarat GRACE, Pakistan Punjab CHIRPS, Xinjiang CHIRPS, and USDA PSD.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.473 in the Precip Above Trend band. CHIRPS daily rainfall over Vidarbha has run above the rolling mean through late 2026 consistent with benign Indian supply regime.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.473 State Precip Above Trend, 28 days running in Neutral phase.
- CHIRPS Vidarbha rainfall above trend Raw z-score -0.63; CHIRPS daily rainfall over Vidarbha has run above trend through late 2026.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap sign-consistent Daily Spearman IC plus 0.091 at p-value 8.4e-14 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC plus 0.147 at p-value 0.12 sign-consistent on 112 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE SUPPLY CALL
Composite -0.473, Precip Above Trend. CHIRPS over Vidarbha shows rainfall running above the rolling mean through late 2026 consistent with benign Indian supply regime. Signal firing in Precip Above Trend bucket for 28 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase -1 historically runs minus 6.50 pp below baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.091 at p-value 8.4e-14 strongly significant on 26-year sample. Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers plus 6.06 percent fwd60d; Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers minus 11.42 percent fwd60d. 17.48 pp Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread. Clean monotone phase pattern.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.147 at p-value 0.12 sign-consistent but not independently significant on 112 samples. Signal most actionable during Jun-Sep monsoon window; off-season composite reflects residual moisture. Pattern is cleanly monotone but modestly powered on daily IC; combine with sibling India supply signals for stacked conviction.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,676 post-warmup trading days (2000 onward). Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers +6.06 percent fwd60d; Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers -11.42 percent fwd60d. Clean monotone phase pattern.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precip Deficit | +1 | 30.5% (2034 d) | +6.06% | +5.10pp | 2022 (La Nina), 2015 (El Nino), 2009 (El Nino) | |
| On Trend | 0 | 7.6% (509 d) | +3.95% | +2.99pp | various | |
| Precip Above Trend TODAY | -1 | 61.9% (4133 d) | -11.42% | -6.50pp | 2026 (current), 2020, 2013 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of CHIRPS daily precipitation over India Vidarbha cotton belt on a rolling 30-day window, inverted so deficit reads positive composite, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals rainfall below trend equals bullish CT via Indian supply stress. Target ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why Vidarbha monsoon matters
Vidarbha is Maharashtra’s eastern cotton belt and India’s largest rainfed cotton region. Unlike Gujarat and Punjab which depend partially on canal irrigation, Vidarbha cotton is almost entirely rainfed; monsoon moisture during June-September determines yield directly. India is the world’s largest cotton producer so Vidarbha-driven Indian supply shifts transmit to global balance and Cotton futures via supply channel.
How to use this signal today
Indian supply overlay for Cotton via the Vidarbha monsoon channel. Precip Deficit firings flag bullish supply-shock setups via Indian yield compression. Precip Above Trend firings flag bearish regimes where Indian supply loosens global balance. Pair with Gujarat GRACE (eastern India aquifer), Pakistan Punjab CHIRPS (adjacent producer), Xinjiang CHIRPS (China supply), USDA PSD US production, and CFTC positioning for stacked global supply conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant on 26-year sample but non-overlap test plus 0.147 at p-value 0.12 sign-consistent but not independently significant on 112 samples. Signal most actionable during Jun-Sep monsoon window; off-season composite reflects residual moisture carry. Vidarbha is only one of multiple Indian cotton regions; Gujarat canal-irrigated supply can partially offset Vidarbha stress.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 10:00 AM ET