GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z4338 – GC NFIB Credit Conditions
NFIB credit-conditions reflects small-biz lending tightness. When credit tightens (negative readings), banking stress regime; GC catches the flight-to-safety bid.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.070
GC NFIB Credit Conditions composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
48 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals small-business credit tight; negative equals small-business credit easy
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
NFIB credit-conditions reflects small-biz lending tightness. When credit tightens (negative readings), banking stress regime; GC catches the flight-to-safety bid. SVB Mar-2023 + 2008 are textbook examples. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 small-business credit tight state has returned on average plus 1.04 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 small-business credit easy state has returned on average plus 0.81 percent. Today the composite reads -0.070, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
GC NFIB Credit Conditions: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks small-business credit easy regime. The pale green band marks small-business credit tight regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.070 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.89 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,025 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal. Sample N=9,025 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
NFIB credit-conditions reflects small-biz lending tightness. When credit tightens (negative readings), banking stress regime; GC catches the flight-to-safety bid. SVB Mar-2023 + 2008 are textbook examples.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.070 placing the dot inside the Normal band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.89 percent, median plus 1.01 percent, across 8,965 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small-business credit tight | +1 | 34.4% (3102 d) | +2.69% | +0.80pp | Jun 2024, Mar 2024, Jun 2022 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 19.7% (1776 d) | +1.30% | -0.59pp | Sep 2026, Mar 2026, Apr 2025 | |
| Small-business credit easy | -1 | 46.0% (4147 d) | +1.54% | -0.35pp | Aug 2026, May 2025, Nov 2024 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 04/04/2025 to 11/06/2026. Full history (197 total transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 04/04/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 18d | +22.79% |
| Defensive | 05/01/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 210d | +13.75% |
| Neutral | 03/04/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 106d | +10.41% |
| Defensive | 08/05/2026 | 08/31/2026 | 19d | -0.06% |
| Neutral LIVE | 09/01/2026 | current | 48d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
NFIB credit-conditions reflects small-biz lending tightness. When credit tightens (negative readings), banking stress regime; GC catches the flight-to-safety bid. SVB Mar-2023 + 2008 are textbook examples. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
NFIB credit-conditions reflects small-biz lending tightness. When credit tightens (negative readings), banking stress regime; GC catches the flight-to-safety bid. SVB Mar-2023 + 2008 are textbook examples.
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:31 PM ET