BO · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z4468 – BO Conab Brazil Oilseeds Composite
Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer; CONAB soja drives the global crush balance and soyoil supply. Adding Girassol/Amendoim/Canola provides marginal diversification (sunflower oil is a soyo.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.065
BO Conab Brazil Oilseeds Composite composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
268 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals brazil oilseeds composite bullish; negative equals brazil oilseeds…
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer; CONAB soja drives the global crush balance and soyoil supply. Adding Girassol/Amendoim/Canola provides marginal diversification (sunflower oil is a soyoil substitute in food applications; canola is mid-tier substitute). The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 brazil oilseeds composite bullish state has returned on average plus 1.61 percent forward 60-day soybean-oil return. Phase -1 brazil oilseeds composite bearish state has returned on average plus 5.35 percent. Today the composite reads +0.065, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
BO Conab Brazil Oilseeds Composite: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks brazil oilseeds composite bearish regime. The pale green band marks brazil oilseeds composite bullish regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is CBOT soybean-oil continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per pound.
COMPOSITE
+0.065 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +3.91 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal. Sample N=9,049 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer; CONAB soja drives the global crush balance and soyoil supply. Adding Girassol/Amendoim/Canola provides marginal diversification (sunflower oil is a soyoil substitute in food applications; canola is mid-tier substitute).
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.065 placing the dot inside the Normal band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day soybean-oil returns and sample share
Baseline soybean-oil forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 3.91 percent, median plus 2.12 percent, across 1,968 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil oilseeds composite bullish | +1 | 25.8% (524 d) | -0.32% | -4.23pp | Dec 2023, Feb 2022, Mar 2019 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 26.7% (542 d) | +7.34% | +3.43pp | Oct 2025, Oct 2024, Oct 2023 | |
| Brazil oilseeds composite bearish | -1 | 47.4% (962 d) | +4.50% | +0.59pp | Feb 2025, Oct 2022, Jan 2020 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 366d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer; CONAB soja drives the global crush balance and soyoil supply. Adding Girassol/Amendoim/Canola provides marginal diversification (sunflower oil is a soyoil substitute in food applications; canola is mid-tier substitute). The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer; CONAB soja drives the global crush balance and soyoil supply. Adding Girassol/Amendoim/Canola provides marginal diversification (sunflower oil is a soyoil substitute in food applications; canola is mid-tier substitute).
The signal flags the current soybean-oil regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 05:45 PM ET