BO · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z6546 – BO US Imports Indonesia Palm YoY
Indonesia = #1 US palm oil supplier (~$1.5B 2024). When palm surges, palm displaces soybean oil. bearish BO.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.676
BO US Imports Indonesia Palm YoY composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
69 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals indonesia palm imports surge; negative equals indonesia palm imports weak
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Indonesia = #1 US palm oil supplier (~$1. 5B 2024). When palm surges, palm displaces soybean oil. bearish BO. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 indonesia palm imports surge state has returned on average plus 1.36 percent forward 60-day soybean-oil return. Phase -1 indonesia palm imports weak state has returned on average plus 2.74 percent. Today the composite reads -0.676, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
BO US Imports Indonesia Palm YoY: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks indonesia palm imports weak regime. The pale green band marks indonesia palm imports surge regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is CBOT soybean-oil continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per pound.
COMPOSITE
-0.676 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.28 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate NEG. Sample N=9,049 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Indonesia = #1 US palm oil supplier (~$1.5B 2024). When palm surges, palm displaces soybean oil. bearish BO.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.676 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day soybean-oil returns and sample share
Baseline soybean-oil forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.28 percent, median minus 1.06 percent, across 3,573 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia palm imports surge | +1 | 57.7% (2097 d) | +1.78% | +0.51pp | May 2026, Nov 2025, Jun 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 28.3% (1027 d) | +0.24% | -1.04pp | Jul 2026, Apr 2026, Sep 2025 | |
| Indonesia palm imports weak TODAY | -1 | 14.0% (509 d) | +1.28% | +0.00pp | Aug 2026, Jun 2026, Jul 2023 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 366d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Indonesia = #1 US palm oil supplier (~$1.5B 2024). When palm surges, palm displaces soybean oil. bearish BO. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Indonesia = #1 US palm oil supplier (~$1.5B 2024). When palm surges, palm displaces soybean oil. bearish BO.
The signal flags the current soybean-oil regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 05:38 PM ET