GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z85402 – GC WGC CB Purchase Regime
CB buying was ~200-400 tonnes/yr in early 2010s. Post-2022 Russia-sanctions saw it spike to 1000+ tonnes/yr as EM central banks accelerated USD-reserve diversification.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.118
GC WGC CB Purchase Regime composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
236 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals cb purchase regime active; negative equals cb purchase regime quiescent
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
CB buying was ~200-400 tonnes/yr in early 2010s. Post-2022 Russia-sanctions saw it spike to 1000+ tonnes/yr as EM central banks accelerated USD-reserve diversification. This is a slow-moving but persistent bid on gold prices. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 cb purchase regime active state has returned on average plus 1.78 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 cb purchase regime quiescent state has returned on average minus 0.12 percent. Today the composite reads +0.118, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
GC WGC CB Purchase Regime: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks cb purchase regime quiescent regime. The pale green band marks cb purchase regime active regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.118 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.30 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,025 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal. Sample N=9,025 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
CB buying was ~200-400 tonnes/yr in early 2010s. Post-2022 Russia-sanctions saw it spike to 1000+ tonnes/yr as EM central banks accelerated USD-reserve diversification. This is a slow-moving but persistent bid on gold prices.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.118 placing the dot inside the Normal band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.30 percent, median plus 1.03 percent, across 6,062 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB purchase regime active | +1 | 53.5% (3273 d) | +1.78% | +0.47pp | Jul 2025, Apr 2024, Sep 2023 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 14.4% (883 d) | +2.82% | +1.51pp | Dec 2025, Aug 2024, Feb 2024 | |
| CB purchase regime quiescent | -1 | 32.1% (1966 d) | -0.12% | -1.42pp | May 2023, Mar 2022, Apr 2020 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 366d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
CB buying was ~200-400 tonnes/yr in early 2010s. Post-2022 Russia-sanctions saw it spike to 1000+ tonnes/yr as EM central banks accelerated USD-reserve diversification. This is a slow-moving but persistent bid on gold prices. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
CB buying was ~200-400 tonnes/yr in early 2010s. Post-2022 Russia-sanctions saw it spike to 1000+ tonnes/yr as EM central banks accelerated USD-reserve diversification. This is a slow-moving but persistent bid on gold prices.
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:31 PM ET